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  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12960 on: May 07, 2021, 10:53:51 am »
Restrictions reduce deaths while in place. Vaccinations allow the lifting of restrictions. Social isolation is unhealthy. It’s a bad way to live long term. Let’s hope we can get vaccinated soon.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12961 on: May 07, 2021, 11:00:04 am »
this is some mega-bullshit dude. several olympic athletes died of coronavirus. a few of them weren't even that old

Um, no, you mean former athletes, people who haven’t competed in decades. The youngest I could find - late 50s. Is that young?

Black people need more sunlight to get sufficient vitamin d. That’s a problem that is weakening immune systems.

If you have dark skin, get enough sunlight.

If you’re obese, lose weight.

Exercise.

Eat good food.

Nothing to worry about, especially if you’re young.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12962 on: May 07, 2021, 11:05:50 am »
What are the statistical odds of dying from coronavirus? If you’re under 50 and/or not obese, virtually zero.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12963 on: May 07, 2021, 11:28:32 am »
Risk of death from coronavirus if infected without vaccination by age:
25: 1/10,000
35: 1/2,700
45: 1/800
55: 1/240
65: 1/70

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210126/how-dangerous-is-coronavirus-to-the-middle-aged
_______________

Most people don’t live healthy lives, and yet most people don’t die from it. Very few do, proportionally speaking.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12964 on: May 07, 2021, 11:35:55 am »
People under 60 who have died from coronavirus are anomalies. Not common at all. Even people over 60 who die from it are anomalies. Almost all survive.


  • JNM
  • The Legend

    • 4783

    • January 19, 2015, 10:16:48 am
    • Cairo, Egypt (formerly Seoul)
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12965 on: May 07, 2021, 06:33:35 pm »
People under 60 who have died from coronavirus are anomalies. Not common at all. Even people over 60 who die from it are anomalies. Almost all survive.

That statement does not align with the stats you posted.

1/240 is not an anomaly.
1/800 is not an anomaly.

This is a significant and preventable risk.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12966 on: May 07, 2021, 08:54:24 pm »
Those are slim odds. Most people aren't dying from the virus upon infection. It's quite rare.


  • JNM
  • The Legend

    • 4783

    • January 19, 2015, 10:16:48 am
    • Cairo, Egypt (formerly Seoul)
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12967 on: May 07, 2021, 10:02:37 pm »
Those are slim odds. Most people aren't dying from the virus upon infection. It's quite rare.

Most people are really bad at risk assessment.

“Slim odds” is quite different than “most” and “rare”.

Risk is probably times consequence.

1/250 chance of winning a door prize at a convention… I assume I will not win and have no consequences in my life. I might give my ticket to someone on the way out if I don’t want to hang around.

1/250 chance of death… I don’t roll those dice if I can prevent it by getting  vaccines, washing hands, wearing masks, and limiting personal contact.

For comparison, nuclear plant owners draw “don’t worry about it” lines at about 10^-8.

That is 1 in 100,000,000.





  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12968 on: May 07, 2021, 10:09:46 pm »
It's those odds if you catch the virus... and are 55. But the average 55 year old is seriously unfit. Most are overweight (in the West). Aim for better than average. (It's a low bar.) Also, get a vaccine and do all that other stuff.


  • tylerthegloob
  • The Legend

    • 2333

    • September 28, 2016, 10:46:24 am
    • Busan
    more
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12969 on: May 10, 2021, 07:39:59 am »
Most people are really bad at risk assessment.

“Slim odds” is quite different than “most” and “rare”.

Risk is probably times consequence.

1/250 chance of winning a door prize at a convention… I assume I will not win and have no consequences in my life. I might give my ticket to someone on the way out if I don’t want to hang around.

1/250 chance of death… I don’t roll those dice if I can prevent it by getting  vaccines, washing hands, wearing masks, and limiting personal contact.

For comparison, nuclear plant owners draw “don’t worry about it” lines at about 10^-8.

That is 1 in 100,000,000.
i find this stuff really interesting. i read thinking fast and slow by daniel kahneman a few years ago and also a few of nassim taleb's books (so, barely scratching the surface... but still). they really changed the way i see risk (among other things). so yeah even a 1/10,000 chance is pretty spooky considering i have very little to gain (not wearing a mask, maybe taking a trip i'll probably be able to take anyway in a year or two) and everything to lose. so will i spin the 1/10,000 russian roulette gun for a small prize? nahhhh im good
more gg more skill


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12970 on: May 10, 2021, 07:48:40 am »
But that’s a 1/10,000 risk IF you catch coronavirus, which probably won’t happen, mask or not,

Not worth worrying about. Ain’t gonna die unless below average health (which many are). And even then the risk is small.


  • Kyndo
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2202

    • March 03, 2011, 09:45:24 am
    • Gyeongsangbuk-do
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12971 on: May 10, 2021, 08:10:32 am »
But that’s a 1/10,000 risk IF you catch coronavirus, which probably won’t happen, mask or not,

Not worth worrying about. Ain’t gonna die unless below average health (which many are). And even then the risk is small.


Ain't *Most likely* ain't gonna die unless below average health.
Also, "which many are" is a drastic understatement. Did you know that about *3.95 billion* people are in below average health?  :huh: :huh:


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12972 on: May 10, 2021, 08:23:48 am »
Strive to be above average. Make a goal be in the upper 50%. You can do it! 화이팅!


  • confusedsafferinkorea
  • Waygook Lord

    • 5724

    • October 08, 2010, 01:02:32 pm
    • Zhubei, Hsinchu County, Taiwan (not part of China)
    more
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12973 on: May 10, 2021, 01:09:33 pm »
Not worth worrying about. Ain’t gonna die unless below average health (which many are). And even then the risk is small.

Yep, tell that to the relatives of the 3.3 million that have died so far. You speak with the authority of a medical expert, just wondering what you medical credentials are? Perhaps you can publish them for us.

Statements like you are making are disrespectful to the victims and their families.
There is no known medical cure for stupidity!


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12974 on: May 10, 2021, 01:28:55 pm »
The people who died were old and/or out of shape.

When I say virtually no young people die from coronavirus I’m correct.

Keeping one’s immune system strong is important because it reduces the amount of time one can be contagious.

The world population is just under eight billion.

One one thousandth would be just under eight million.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2021, 01:32:08 pm by L I »


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12975 on: May 10, 2021, 01:31:19 pm »
Above poster, you’re almost 70, so yes you have to worry. And I’d be sad if you died. Exercise, get sunlight, eat healthy food, and avoid second hand smoke.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12976 on: May 10, 2021, 01:38:18 pm »
4 out of 5 Americans hospitalized for coronavirus were overweight. Over half were obese. Almost everyone who dies from coronavirus is old and/or overweight. Usually both. And deficient in vitamin D from not enough sunlight. Gotta get outside regularly for optimal health.


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12977 on: May 10, 2021, 01:46:14 pm »
That's true. But you also have to calculate the societal risks. Risk of populace becoming infected, overrun hospitals, sudden disruptions etc. vs. economic damage, physical and mental health costs, addiction, crime, etc.

There's so much that goes into public health. Anyone who is only looking at death risk for COVID is not looking at the issue as a whole. And things can swing from one side to the other of whatever issue you are on.


  • confusedsafferinkorea
  • Waygook Lord

    • 5724

    • October 08, 2010, 01:02:32 pm
    • Zhubei, Hsinchu County, Taiwan (not part of China)
    more
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12978 on: May 10, 2021, 01:54:09 pm »
4 out of 5 Americans hospitalized for coronavirus were overweight. Over half were obese. Almost everyone who dies from coronavirus is old and/or overweight. Usually both. And deficient in vitamin D from not enough sunlight. Gotta get outside regularly for optimal health.

600k Americans have died out of a total of 3.3 million overall deaths and you are saying that the other 2.7 million were all old and overweight? Methinks not.
There is no known medical cure for stupidity!


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6174

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12979 on: May 10, 2021, 02:00:07 pm »
Can’t understand what you’re trying to say here.

My point was the weaker one’s body, the greater the likelihood of death.

And one’s body weakens with age.

Also, if you look at deaths as a percentage of the population, it’s very small. Including in the United States, where people are exceptionally fat. So yeah, they got hit harder, but proportionally it’s still not a lot, considering their huge population.