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  • JNM
  • Waygook Lord

    • 5056

    • January 19, 2015, 10:16:48 am
    • Cairo, Egypt (formerly Seoul)
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12920 on: May 07, 2021, 10:02:37 pm »
Those are slim odds. Most people aren't dying from the virus upon infection. It's quite rare.

Most people are really bad at risk assessment.

“Slim odds” is quite different than “most” and “rare”.

Risk is probably times consequence.

1/250 chance of winning a door prize at a convention… I assume I will not win and have no consequences in my life. I might give my ticket to someone on the way out if I don’t want to hang around.

1/250 chance of death… I don’t roll those dice if I can prevent it by getting  vaccines, washing hands, wearing masks, and limiting personal contact.

For comparison, nuclear plant owners draw “don’t worry about it” lines at about 10^-8.

That is 1 in 100,000,000.





  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12921 on: May 07, 2021, 10:09:46 pm »
It's those odds if you catch the virus... and are 55. But the average 55 year old is seriously unfit. Most are overweight (in the West). Aim for better than average. (It's a low bar.) Also, get a vaccine and do all that other stuff.


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12922 on: May 10, 2021, 07:39:59 am »
Most people are really bad at risk assessment.

“Slim odds” is quite different than “most” and “rare”.

Risk is probably times consequence.

1/250 chance of winning a door prize at a convention… I assume I will not win and have no consequences in my life. I might give my ticket to someone on the way out if I don’t want to hang around.

1/250 chance of death… I don’t roll those dice if I can prevent it by getting  vaccines, washing hands, wearing masks, and limiting personal contact.

For comparison, nuclear plant owners draw “don’t worry about it” lines at about 10^-8.

That is 1 in 100,000,000.
i find this stuff really interesting. i read thinking fast and slow by daniel kahneman a few years ago and also a few of nassim taleb's books (so, barely scratching the surface... but still). they really changed the way i see risk (among other things). so yeah even a 1/10,000 chance is pretty spooky considering i have very little to gain (not wearing a mask, maybe taking a trip i'll probably be able to take anyway in a year or two) and everything to lose. so will i spin the 1/10,000 russian roulette gun for a small prize? nahhhh im good


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12923 on: May 10, 2021, 07:48:40 am »
But that’s a 1/10,000 risk IF you catch coronavirus, which probably won’t happen, mask or not,

Not worth worrying about. Ain’t gonna die unless below average health (which many are). And even then the risk is small.


  • Kyndo
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • I am a geek!!

    • March 02, 2027, 11:00:00 pm
    • Gyeongsangbuk-do
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12924 on: May 10, 2021, 08:10:32 am »
But that’s a 1/10,000 risk IF you catch coronavirus, which probably won’t happen, mask or not,

Not worth worrying about. Ain’t gonna die unless below average health (which many are). And even then the risk is small.


Ain't *Most likely* ain't gonna die unless below average health.
Also, "which many are" is a drastic understatement. Did you know that about *3.95 billion* people are in below average health?  :huh: :huh:


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12925 on: May 10, 2021, 08:23:48 am »
Strive to be above average. Make a goal be in the upper 50%. You can do it! 화이팅!


  • confusedsafferinkorea
  • Waygook Lord

    • 5947

    • October 08, 2010, 01:02:32 pm
    • Zhubei, Hsinchu County, Taiwan (not part of China)
    more
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12926 on: May 10, 2021, 01:09:33 pm »
Not worth worrying about. Ain’t gonna die unless below average health (which many are). And even then the risk is small.

Yep, tell that to the relatives of the 3.3 million that have died so far. You speak with the authority of a medical expert, just wondering what you medical credentials are? Perhaps you can publish them for us.

Statements like you are making are disrespectful to the victims and their families.
There is no known medical cure for stupidity!


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12927 on: May 10, 2021, 01:28:55 pm »
The people who died were old and/or out of shape.

When I say virtually no young people die from coronavirus I’m correct.

Keeping one’s immune system strong is important because it reduces the amount of time one can be contagious.

The world population is just under eight billion.

One one thousandth would be just under eight million.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2021, 01:32:08 pm by L I »


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12928 on: May 10, 2021, 01:31:19 pm »
Above poster, you’re almost 70, so yes you have to worry. And I’d be sad if you died. Exercise, get sunlight, eat healthy food, and avoid second hand smoke.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12929 on: May 10, 2021, 01:38:18 pm »
4 out of 5 Americans hospitalized for coronavirus were overweight. Over half were obese. Almost everyone who dies from coronavirus is old and/or overweight. Usually both. And deficient in vitamin D from not enough sunlight. Gotta get outside regularly for optimal health.


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12930 on: May 10, 2021, 01:46:14 pm »
That's true. But you also have to calculate the societal risks. Risk of populace becoming infected, overrun hospitals, sudden disruptions etc. vs. economic damage, physical and mental health costs, addiction, crime, etc.

There's so much that goes into public health. Anyone who is only looking at death risk for COVID is not looking at the issue as a whole. And things can swing from one side to the other of whatever issue you are on.


  • confusedsafferinkorea
  • Waygook Lord

    • 5947

    • October 08, 2010, 01:02:32 pm
    • Zhubei, Hsinchu County, Taiwan (not part of China)
    more
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12931 on: May 10, 2021, 01:54:09 pm »
4 out of 5 Americans hospitalized for coronavirus were overweight. Over half were obese. Almost everyone who dies from coronavirus is old and/or overweight. Usually both. And deficient in vitamin D from not enough sunlight. Gotta get outside regularly for optimal health.

600k Americans have died out of a total of 3.3 million overall deaths and you are saying that the other 2.7 million were all old and overweight? Methinks not.
There is no known medical cure for stupidity!


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12932 on: May 10, 2021, 02:00:07 pm »
Can’t understand what you’re trying to say here.

My point was the weaker one’s body, the greater the likelihood of death.

And one’s body weakens with age.

Also, if you look at deaths as a percentage of the population, it’s very small. Including in the United States, where people are exceptionally fat. So yeah, they got hit harder, but proportionally it’s still not a lot, considering their huge population.


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12933 on: May 10, 2021, 02:04:10 pm »
4 out of 5 Americans hospitalized for coronavirus were overweight. Over half were obese. Almost everyone who dies from coronavirus is old and/or overweight. Usually both. And deficient in vitamin D from not enough sunlight. Gotta get outside regularly for optimal health.

600k Americans have died out of a total of 3.3 million overall deaths and you are saying that the other 2.7 million were all old and overweight? Methinks not.
Given what we've seen, odds are probably a very healthy majority of them are overweight and old. Of course in poorer countries the standard of health care can by abysmal so that would result in greater numbers of healthy people dying.


  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12934 on: May 21, 2021, 08:08:42 am »
”Korea ranks a miserable 35th out of 37 member nations on the OECD's happiness index.”

http://english.chosun.com/m/svc/article.html?contid=2021052000958

”According to the KDI's own analysis, Korea had the worst air pollution with an average fine dust level of 27.4 ㎍/㎥, twice the average OECD level of 13.9 ㎍/㎥.”


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12935 on: May 21, 2021, 08:14:48 am »
”Korea ranks a miserable 35th out of 37 member nations on the OECD's happiness index.”

http://english.chosun.com/m/svc/article.html?contid=2021052000958

”According to the KDI's own analysis, Korea had the worst air pollution with an average fine dust level of 27.4 ㎍/㎥, twice the average OECD level of 13.9 ㎍/㎥.”
There are many reasons for stress and unhappiness, but honestly, I listen to some Koreans here sometimes and it's like they WANT to be stressed. Like, it's Saturday, try to relax a bit, let it go. Stop stressing about X Y and Z. And it's never urgent. It's always about something trivial and there's this big song and dance.

Like, my GF.

"Daughter is getting hungry. Oh no!!! What will we do?????"

Honey, we're in a TRADITIONAL market. There are literally HUNDREDS of things to eat.

"She can't have spicy food!!!!!"

Yeah, I know. Again. there are hundreds of things. If we're not done amassing our dinner together to eat at the river, just get her something tiny to tide her over until we can properly eat.

"What?? No. She can't."

What? Why not? There was the dried snacks place (sold nuts, and little pastry things, they had dozens of things out that are weighed by the gram, could have spent 1500W or less to get SOMETHING for daughter).

"THAT'S NOT DINNER FOOD."

Yeah, obviously. But you're gonna pop a FEKKIN VEIN cuz she's GONNA get hungry. You wanna solve the problem or not? Jesus F Christ.

___________________ ___________________ ______________

Maybe it's just the people I attract, but I find Korean woman fret over the dumbest crap sometimes. Really, genuinely make mountains out of mole hills. Not just my GFs, but dates, female friends, Co-Ts etc
« Last Edit: May 21, 2021, 08:21:13 am by CO2 »


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12936 on: May 21, 2021, 08:31:27 am »
that would drive me up the wall, my dude


Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12937 on: May 21, 2021, 08:56:40 am »
that would drive me up the wall, my dude

She's worth it, but damn if it isn't annoying as hell. That said, I am the most relaxed person in the world. haha

Anyway, got a meme out of it.



  • L I
  • Waygook Lord

    • 7681

    • October 03, 2011, 01:50:58 pm
Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12938 on: May 26, 2021, 08:59:32 am »
Only half of Koreans in their 60s sign up for vaccinations

Because people who decline to get vaccinated when their turns come up don’t get another chance until after November per the current protocols, the high proportion of older people going unvaccinated could place Korea further away from its goal of attaining herd immunity, experts warn.

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210525000673

People 60 and older make up 95 percent of all COVID-19 deaths in Korea.




Re: RANTING/VENTING MEGATHREAD 3.0
« Reply #12939 on: May 26, 2021, 09:15:26 am »
Only half of Koreans in their 60s sign up for vaccinations

Because people who decline to get vaccinated when their turns come up don’t get another chance until after November per the current protocols, the high proportion of older people going unvaccinated could place Korea further away from its goal of attaining herd immunity, experts warn.

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210525000673

People 60 and older make up 95 percent of all COVID-19 deaths in Korea.




Good more people that cancel or no show the more likely I'll get a call from the waitlist!!