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  • SPQR
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1075

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Sierra Leone
4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« on: October 12, 2021, 12:50:03 pm »
A recent mathematical model developed by the KDCA showed that
the country may see up to 4,300 daily infections in late October and up to
5,000 cases in late November.


https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2021/10/119_316825.html

I'm obviously not an immunologist or a virologist or any kind of "ist", but
this seems counterintuitive to me when over 70% of the population will
be fully vaccinated.


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 12:59:22 pm »
Several factors-
1) The Delta variant makes transmission much more likely
2) The vaccine isn't so much a vaccine as a vaccine-therapeutic blend. If you really look at things, it doesn't so much prevent infection as greatly reduce your symptoms and the transmissibility of it. I think the real vaccine is still a couple of years away, at least. Don't get me wrong, the vaccines now are critical, but I think their limitations are starting to show, hence why policy now in many places is shifting towards "living with COVID".
3) Boosters needed after a few months
4) S. Korea might have gotten a bad batch or administered placebos in an effort to placate the population or fouled up the storage of the vaccine. I mean, would anyone really be shocked if after getting the vaccine, this was all stored in some place where the bumbling late night ajosshi watchman did something that threw off the temperature of the storage unit? Or the dipshit 19 year olds in charge of transporting the vaccine decided to stop at Lotteria for a burger and turned off the engine and the cooling unit?


  • SPQR
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1075

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Sierra Leone
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2021, 01:05:45 pm »
Absolute rubbish.


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2021, 02:33:04 pm »
Absolute rubbish.
Which part and in what way? Delta being more transmissible? The vaccine only significantly reducing but not eliminating spread? The need for booster shots? The potential that Korea bungled stuff somewhere along the way?

I did forget to add a 5th reason- More people vaxxed means more people out n about and taking more risks.

Well that and the model could be wrong.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2021, 02:46:12 pm by Mr.DeMartino »


  • tylerthegloob
  • The Legend

    • 3063

    • September 28, 2016, 10:46:24 am
    • Busan
    more
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2021, 03:01:25 pm »
4) S. Korea might have gotten a bad batch or administered placebos in an effort to placate the population or fouled up the storage of the vaccine.

this is certainly less "factor" and more "wild speculation"

I could care less
how much less could you care? i could care a lot less
more gg more skill


  • pkjh
  • The Legend

    • 2194

    • May 02, 2012, 02:59:44 pm
    • Asia
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2021, 03:06:53 pm »
The storage requirements for the some of vaccines has been made a lot feasible since like May 2021. When it first came out it required really cold storage and could only be in refrigeration temps for a few hours. Now it can be kept a normal refrigeration temps for a few days before being used.


  • hangook77
  • The Legend

    • 4847

    • September 14, 2017, 09:10:12 am
    • Near Busan
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2021, 03:09:40 pm »
this is certainly less "factor" and more "wild speculation"
how much less could you care? i could care a lot less

The real beauty is someone removed my comments and so there is no context for your quote.  Censorship is alive and well, it seems.  Shut up narratives that aren't yours instead of debate them.  (Not you Tyler.)


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2021, 03:10:23 pm »
Yes indeed!
'I could care less' means I already care. I think hangook got the expression wrong  ;D


  • D.L.Orean
  • Expert Waygook

    • 711

    • February 25, 2020, 09:34:41 am
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2021, 03:12:00 pm »
this is certainly less "factor" and more "wild speculation"
how much less could you care? i could care a lot less

Is it really that wild? 19 year old Jae-hyun, who doesn't really care about the precious cargo he is carrying, stops for a smoke and accidentally hits a switch to turn off the refrigeration as he steps out of his truck. Because he's 19 and doesn't care about anything in life, he fails to do the appropriate checks upon returnng to his truck and his mistake goes uncorrected. He is more concerned about his weekend plans with his buddies. A few bottles of soju and some hunting. Maybe drink enough courage to send that text to Min-ji. He's all up in his head about these selfish things because, you know, he's young and all young people are selfish.

Or perhaps he's been spending too much time at a language exchange and he's a little too influenced by his American language exchange partner's views on the vaccine. Maybe they are trying to control us. Wouldn't it be better to destroy the vaccines and save some innocent lives? Is it so unlikely that westerners, with their large overinflated egos, would spread their own beliefs to a young innocent boy causing him to sabotage a batch of vaccines?
"in real life I have a Mensa level IQ. Thatís the opposite of mentally retarded. People have told me Iím the smartest person theyíve ever met. Has anyone said that to you? Probably not."


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2021, 03:16:44 pm »
this is certainly less "factor" and more "wild speculation"
Oh agreed, but would we really be shocked if we found out someone bungled somewhere and a bunch of doses were spoiled?


  • OnNut81
  • The Legend

    • 2669

    • April 01, 2011, 03:01:41 pm
    • Anyang
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2021, 03:17:56 pm »
The real beauty is someone removed my comments and so there is no context for your quote.  Censorship is alive and well, it seems.  Shut up narratives that aren't yours instead of debate them.  (Not you Tyler.)

Can't say I shared Hangook's concerns, but why would his comments have been removed? 


  • tylerthegloob
  • The Legend

    • 3063

    • September 28, 2016, 10:46:24 am
    • Busan
    more
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2021, 03:19:43 pm »
The real beauty is someone removed my comments and so there is no context for your quote.  Censorship is alive and well, it seems.  Shut up narratives that aren't yours instead of debate them.  (Not you Tyler.)

indeed. i would NEVER censor you
more gg more skill


  • tylerthegloob
  • The Legend

    • 3063

    • September 28, 2016, 10:46:24 am
    • Busan
    more
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2021, 03:22:16 pm »
Oh agreed, but would we really be shocked if we found out someone bungled somewhere and a bunch of doses were spoiled?
well personally i wouldn't be shocked if elon musk was a lizard but i don't factor that into my plans to buy or sell tesla stock
more gg more skill


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2021, 04:11:07 pm »
Can't say I shared Hangook's concerns, but why would his comments have been removed?

Isn't spreading anti-vaxing misinformation online tantamount to domestic terrorism or something these days?


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2021, 04:30:58 pm »
well personally i wouldn't be shocked if elon musk was a lizard but i don't factor that into my plans to buy or sell tesla stock
True, but I think "bad batch ruined by delivery driver's incompetence/error at storage facility" is a bit more plausible than Elon Musk is an alien.

Not to get TOO conspiracy theory driven, but given the rush Korea was in for when it came to vaccines, the incentive certainly rose for the chance of some issues taking place. Would it really shock us if we learned that one of those batches Korea hastily got was actually condemned vaccine that perhaps only had 50% effectiveness and they took what they could as a stop gap?

Not saying this happened, but if one were to see infection rates rise without explanation, you have to start looking at more unusual explanations. Think of it like a car recall or a defective product. The design (or even the product might be sound) but perhaps 1 of 5 factories producing it had a slight error or some distributor had the product baking in the sun. No one would be shocked if that happened and could certainly explain why a certain car make or manufacturer was having issues or why this make of vehicle distributed in this country was having issues.


Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2021, 04:37:09 pm »
Isn't spreading anti-vaxing misinformation online tantamount to domestic terrorism or something these days?
If I recall, his comments were an anecdote about a certain group of workers, some people he knew/himself (I don't recall) and some random conclusions.

I think the comments about workers and his random conclusions MIGHT be grounds for being labeled "misinformation" (on the other hand, if he linked that to a news source, then they can't really be labeled that and should not be censored). However, if someone wants to share a personal anecdote, then they should be able to. "I watched my friend get vaxxed and immediately a 3rd armtacle+mouth sprung out and started eating the poor nurse" should be allowed to be posted as it is what someone witnessed (or claimed to have witnessed) themselves. We can of course, choose to not believe it, but it should not be censored.


  • Adel
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1810

    • January 30, 2015, 12:50:26 am
    • The Abyss
    more
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2021, 06:11:08 am »
A recent mathematical model developed by the KDCA showed that
the country may see up to 4,300 daily infections in late October and up to
5,000 cases in late November.


https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2021/10/119_316825.html

I'm obviously not an immunologist or a virologist or any kind of "ist", but
this seems counterintuitive to me when over 70% of the population will
be fully vaccinated.
As the percentage of the population vaccinated increases, the number of infections becomes less relevant. The number of hospitalisations and deaths is what one should be focusing on. The emerging data suggests hospitalisations and deaths significantly declines as rates of full vaccination increase. While vaccinations can limit the likelihood of infections, their primary function is to treat the disease by preventing serious illness.

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306
« Last Edit: October 13, 2021, 06:15:10 am by Adel »


  • SPQR
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1075

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Sierra Leone
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2021, 07:36:10 am »
As the percentage of the population vaccinated increases, the number of infections becomes less relevant. The number of hospitalisations and deaths is what one should be focusing on. The emerging data suggests hospitalisations and deaths significantly declines as rates of full vaccination increase. While vaccinations can limit the likelihood of infections, their primary function is to treat the disease by preventing serious illness.

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306

I understand that infections become less relevant and severe,
but why should they spike at all.  Why aren't they spiking with
fewer fully vaccinated? It's not like were locked down here. People
are going about their business as usual.


  • OnNut81
  • The Legend

    • 2669

    • April 01, 2011, 03:01:41 pm
    • Anyang
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2021, 07:38:35 am »
Presumably "the certain group of workers" weren't the fully vaccinated teachers with whom he actually works and interacts on a daily basis.

I'm guessing the fully vaccinated teachers with whom he actually works and interacts on a daily basis are unaware he took a pass on the vaccine.  The teachers and parents would probably freak out if they realised they have a Corona Trojan horse in the school. He'd either be rolling up his sleeve right quick, or calling it a day in Korea.


  • D.L.Orean
  • Expert Waygook

    • 711

    • February 25, 2020, 09:34:41 am
Re: 4,300 to 5,000 daily cases expected...how?
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2021, 07:41:35 am »
I'm guessing the fully vaccinated teachers with whom he actually works and interacts on a daily basis are unaware he took a pass on the vaccine.  The teachers and parents would probably freak out if they realised they have a Corona Trojan horse in the school. He'd either be rolling up his sleeve right quick, or calling it a day in Korea.

And he'd head to China where they would of course not require him to be vaccinated  :rolleyes:
"in real life I have a Mensa level IQ. Thatís the opposite of mentally retarded. People have told me Iím the smartest person theyíve ever met. Has anyone said that to you? Probably not."