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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #40 on: May 28, 2021, 11:03:50 am »
There, fixed it for you.

If the odds of surviving COVID were thanks to a "lottery-winning immune system", then A LOT more people would be dead.

Bill Maher discussing liberals lack of science on COVID threat risk and severely overstating chances of death
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp3gy_CLXho


  • tylerthegloob
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #41 on: May 28, 2021, 11:40:56 am »
man do i really ****** hate bill maher
more gg more skill


  • 745sticky
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #42 on: May 28, 2021, 11:43:32 am »
If the odds of surviving COVID were thanks to a "lottery-winning immune system", then A LOT more people would be dead.

Bill Maher discussing liberals lack of science on COVID threat risk and severely overstating chances of death
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp3gy_CLXho

what induced you to go L1 on us dmart


Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #43 on: May 28, 2021, 12:01:05 pm »
what induced you to go L1 on us dmart
LOL. True.

That being said, he's right that lots of people don't really understand what the risks of dying from COVID are. If you really had to have a "lotter winning immune system", the world would like Tenochtitlan post-Cortez, not what it does now.


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  • Waygook Lord

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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #44 on: May 28, 2021, 12:13:37 pm »
It’s Much More Likely the Coronavirus Came from Wildlife, Not a Lab

Both ideas are largely evidence-free at this point. They are both possible.

But they are not, however, equally probable. They differ in the number of events that could create each scenario. Redfield’s lab leak idea relies on one event, or perhaps a small handful: a mistake in the lab. The wildlife spillover idea has millions of chances to occur.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/its-much-more-likely-the-coronavirus-came-from-wildlife-not-a-lab1/


  • waygo0k
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #45 on: May 28, 2021, 12:20:07 pm »
If the odds of surviving COVID were thanks to a "lottery-winning immune system", then A LOT more people would be dead.

Bill Maher discussing liberals lack of science on COVID threat risk and severely overstating chances of death

The fact that you even thought of using Bill Maher...might as well quote Bill O'Reilly  :P :P

A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.

Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.


https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s
« Last Edit: May 28, 2021, 12:22:51 pm by waygo0k »


  • hangook77
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #46 on: May 28, 2021, 12:23:29 pm »
man do i really ****** hate bill maher

His liberal politics don't do it for you? 


  • hangook77
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #47 on: May 28, 2021, 12:24:24 pm »
The fact that you even thought of using Bill Maher...might as well quote Bill O'Reilly  :P :P

A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.

Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.


https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s

Are you sure they are covid deaths?  No flu deaths, and other illnesses are mysteriously way way down compared to past years.


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  • Waygook Lord

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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #48 on: May 28, 2021, 12:26:43 pm »
That’s just one study... and if almost 7 million really died, that’s less than one one thousandth of the world’s population.

There are A LOT of sickly, unhealthy people in this world. Those are the most likely to die. But most of them survived.


  • Kyndo
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #49 on: May 28, 2021, 12:27:02 pm »
It’s Much More Likely the Coronavirus Came from Wildlife, Not a Lab
Both ideas are largely evidence-free at this point. They are both possible.
But they are not, however, equally probable. They differ in the number of events that could create each scenario. Redfield’s lab leak idea relies on one event, or perhaps a small handful: a mistake in the lab. The wildlife spillover idea has millions of chances to occur.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/its-much-more-likely-the-coronavirus-came-from-wildlife-not-a-lab1/

Right.

Also, even if the theory that it came out of a lab is proven, that doesn't mean that the virus was created or modified in the lab. Too many people are conflating the study of a virus (routine) with creating some kind of Frankenstein's monster of a virus (and releasing out into the world as part of our sinister plot to release it out into the world! mwa-ha-ha-ha!)

Are you sure they are covid deaths?  No flu deaths, and other illnesses are mysteriously way way down compared to past years.
Mysteriously? What?
The fact that widespread measures being taken to reduce the transmission of a flu-like virus might affect the transmission numbers (and therefor the death count) of influencza A and B is mysterious? Seriously:huh:
« Last Edit: May 28, 2021, 12:29:56 pm by Kyndo »


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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #50 on: May 28, 2021, 12:30:22 pm »
Some people hate China so much they want to believe the conspiracy theory ... but the countries with the most people are where new viruses in humans are most likely to originate. India has loads of people, too, so from there might be next.


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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #51 on: May 28, 2021, 12:32:52 pm »
Trump and Republicans are pushing the lab conspiracy theory to divert attention from how badly they messed up. They’re trying to steer anger elsewhere.


Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #52 on: May 28, 2021, 01:01:08 pm »
The fact that you even thought of using Bill Maher...might as well quote Bill O'Reilly  :P :P
The study he cites doesn't say what it says?
Are you denying that many Americans, particularly those on the left, are grossly overstating the chances of death?

Quote
A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.

Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.
You do realize that is Daily 3 Lotto odds of dying, right? You're talking about 1/1000.



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  • Waygook Lord

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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #53 on: May 28, 2021, 01:02:35 pm »
As Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden's chief medical adviser, told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee on Wednesday: "The historical basis for pandemics evolving naturally from an animal reservoir is extremely strong. And it's for that reason that we felt that something similar like this has a much higher likelihood. No one knows, not even I, 100% at this point, which is the reason why we are in favor of further investigation."

Dr. Céline Gounder, an infectious disease expert who served on the Biden transition team's COVID-19 advisory board, agrees.

Even if the Wuhan Institute of Virology is the less likely origin of the outbreak, "this needs more investigation," she said Thursday in an interview with NPR's Rachel Martin on Morning Edition. "And saying that this needs more investigation doesn't mean the virus leaked from a lab. But we need to investigate that and figure that out because it really does have implications for how we'll prevent the next pandemic."

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/27/1000780650/every-possible-explanation-for-covid-19-should-be-investigated-expert-says

On why natural transmission from animals to humans is still the dominant theory for the origins of COVID-19:

This is really 99% of the time the source of emerging infectious diseases, whether you talk about HIV or Zika or Ebola, the original SARS, MERS. I mean, you keep going and going. But all of these have been the result of zoonotic spillovers — so, spillover of viruses from animals into humans. And this is what we've seen with the prior coronaviruses so probabilistically, it's far more likely that this would be a spillover event as well.


Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #54 on: May 28, 2021, 01:02:49 pm »
Also, even if the theory that it came out of a lab is proven, that doesn't mean that the virus was created or modified in the lab. Too many people are conflating the study of a virus (routine) with creating some kind of Frankenstein's monster of a virus (and releasing out into the world as part of our sinister plot to release it out into the world! mwa-ha-ha-ha!)
Given that we live in East Asia, how can anyone suspect anything but the most likely explanation-

Hungover postgrad student tracked it out of the lab when they went to the food stalls at the wet market for "Oooo My Head Soup".


Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #55 on: May 28, 2021, 01:10:49 pm »
This is really 99% of the time the source of emerging infectious diseases, whether you talk about HIV or Zika or Ebola, the original SARS, MERS. I mean, you keep going and going. But all of these have been the result of zoonotic spillovers — so, spillover of viruses from animals into humans. And this is what we've seen with the prior coronaviruses so probabilistically, it's far more likely that this would be a spillover event as well.
A few things- Our history with advanced virology, genetics, etc. to the stage where we really could manipulate something is only really recent. You're talking the late 70s at best and really not until the 90s or so. Most of those he diseases emerged pretty much before we were doing the kind of manipulative lab work we are doing now. During the Cold War, most of research was on pre-existing diseases and its application as a bioweapon (and prevention of it). Yes, I'm sure they tried to develop some stuff and research it, but we really didn't have the tech to do much.

What is the rate of disease emergence? If a significant number of new diseases are emerging each year, then 99% doesn't mean much. On the other hand, if this is a rare phenomenon, then a lab release would indeed be a rare event. Something can occur only 1% of the time and still be a regular event OR it can be a really rare event (by human standards).


  • tylerthegloob
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #56 on: May 28, 2021, 01:12:07 pm »
shirley, thats not the MOST likely explanation...
more gg more skill


  • Kyndo
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #57 on: May 28, 2021, 01:34:38 pm »
A few things- Our history with advanced virology, genetics, etc. to the stage where we really could manipulate something is only really recent. You're talking the late 70s at best and really not until the 90s or so. Most of those he diseases emerged pretty much before we were doing the kind of manipulative lab work we are doing now. During the Cold War, most of research was on pre-existing diseases and its application as a bioweapon (and prevention of it). Yes, I'm sure they tried to develop some stuff and research it, but we really didn't have the tech to do much.

What is the rate of disease emergence? If a significant number of new diseases are emerging each year, then 99% doesn't mean much. On the other hand, if this is a rare phenomenon, then a lab release would indeed be a rare event. Something can occur only 1% of the time and still be a regular event OR it can be a really rare event (by human standards).
I assume that the remaining 1% is some kind of quantum-leap mutation in an existing virus that changes it into a very different beast.
Insofar as I know, even weaponized viruses are basically just the originals with a few tiny gene tweaks to make it more virulent, or more deadly, or more likely to infect commie bastards rather than good capitalist freedom fighters. They're closer to variants than new diseases.

Tracking rates of disease emergence is actually really interesting... and also incredibly complicated.
At what point does a variant become a new disease?
Also, if a species cross infection does occur, how can one be certain it's for the first time humans have been infected by it? Viral reservoirs can be almost impossible to identify and can be depressingly ubiquitous (for example, nearly 20% of all armadillos test positive for leprosy, and various kinds of ticks in the US are known to cause vegetarianism (seriously!) ).

Or heck: that killer new virus everybody is gushing and raving about? It may have originated in humans, crossed over, and then crossed back etc etc. How can one tell?


shirley, thats not the MOST likely explanation...
« Last Edit: May 28, 2021, 01:42:37 pm by Kyndo »


  • waygo0k
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Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #58 on: May 28, 2021, 02:27:52 pm »
Are you sure they are covid deaths?  No flu deaths, and other illnesses are mysteriously way way down compared to past years.

Literally said "DIED OF COVID"

That’s just one study... and if almost 7 million really died, that’s less than one one thousandth of the world’s population.

There are A LOT of sickly, unhealthy people in this world. Those are the most likely to die. But most of them survived.

And how many millions dead would that be if half of the world got infected?

The study he cites doesn't say what it says?
Are you denying that many Americans, particularly those on the left, are grossly overstating the chances of death?
You do realize that is Daily 3 Lotto odds of dying, right? You're talking about 1/1000.


"Grossly overestimating"...a million extra people in the US died within the space of a year, most of whom didn't have to. This kind of dismissive mindset regarding the virus is precisely why countries like the US, Brazil, India, the UK and Russia have been ravaged by COVID-19.

Moreover, did the gallop poll take into account that up to half people who contracted covid but showed no symptoms might end up with long term and permanent lung damage and other health issues? Wouldn't that need hospitalisation and doctor visits?

Texas infection rates went down because people went outside? That's the moronic view you really want us to believe?

Did the CDC "lie" about surface infections? Or did they adjust their advice based on newly available research information...you know, because the virus and pandemic is NEW and new info is being discovered about it all the time?

Too much simplistic thinking and not enough of the bigger picture.

I say this with the utmost sincerity in my heart - FCUK Bill Maher and his pseudo-cool bullshit.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2021, 02:32:14 pm by waygo0k »


Re: Why I still maintain the Wuhan lab was the origin of the virus
« Reply #59 on: May 28, 2021, 02:41:17 pm »
I'm sure Biden will squash any intelligence reports that the CCCP Wuhan virus has any links to the lab in Wuhan, regardless of the findings. And if they did have such a connection, I hope you'll see this story as part and parcel with your investigation. The report came just 24 hours before another big Chinese news agency — Xinhua — published its own list revealing an explosion at some undisclosed location within China's national nuclear security laboratory last week which damaged dozens more centrifuges' cooling systems.

Coincidence? I think not.

DON'T POKE THE BEAR. Not he American way. But hey, don't blame me - I voted Trump.