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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2020, 09:38:02 am »
Folks have told me of having covid like symptoms back in Canada in late 2019.  One of my sister's even got a mysterious sickness after meeting a client from China last January.  It was covid like symptoms.

Like coughing and a fever?

Honestly, the Spanish Flu lasted 2 to 2 and a half years before finally dying out and folks getting natural immunity to it.

By the time this vaccine becomes available to the general population, covid will have been around for almost 2 years.  Next spring or summer.  So, the virus would be soon ready to die out anyways.  Maybe might cut it down 6 months or so or may die out at the same time. 

So, the vaccine will almost be kind of a moot point by then.  Might cut short the mask wearing by a few months or something (or not at all).  It will help the most vulnerable and prone to getting sick over this winter season however.  (I believe the shots will only be available to the most affected in the short term.)

You’re right that vaccines in the past did not become developed until the virus they treated had long already reached endemic status, which makes this vaccine quite remarkable. (People of the past had to rely on behavior alteration to mitigate their exposure!) I think most people would disagree with your timeline, but let’s say there was only 6 months difference between herd immunity acquired entirely through community spread and herd immunity aided by widespread vaccine distribution. How many hundreds of thousands of lives cut short do you suppose we could avoid in that amount of time? How much more damage would six months do to the economy and hobble our ability to bounce back from the damage?

Trump will hold them to account in his second term.

제발. Enough already :cry:
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 09:41:16 am by Don Hobak »


  • Liechtenstein
  • Hero of Waygookistan

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    • February 15, 2019, 04:39:00 pm
    • NE Hemisphere
Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2020, 09:49:45 am »
I'll take it because I will have to for my job. If it works everything is fine. If I get sick because of it, I get sick. If I get sick and die because of it, I die.

I will say this, I had a flu shot once and only once in my life. I have never been as sick with the flu as I was after that shot. Never had another one.

Clearly this vaccine will kill some people, that is inevitable. But, it's going to save darn near everyone and help get things back to normal. I want to go on a vacation to Europe.


  • confusedsafferinkorea
  • Waygook Lord

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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2020, 10:03:01 am »
Does anyone else feel like China got off way too lightly? Apart from the odd instance of Sinophobia here and there, it seems like no one's actually held them accountable.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/11/356_299976.html

Well, Korea is certainly not going to hold them accountable.
There is no known medical cure for stupidity!


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2020, 10:34:40 am »
I'll take it because I will have to for my job. If it works everything is fine. If I get sick because of it, I get sick. If I get sick and die because of it, I die.

I will say this, I had a flu shot once and only once in my life. I have never been as sick with the flu as I was after that shot. Never had another one.

Clearly this vaccine will kill some people, that is inevitable. But, it's going to save darn near everyone and help get things back to normal. I want to go on a vacation to Europe.




I do agree chances of dying are very low, but still don't want to pass it along to others.


  • Kyndo
  • Moderator LVL 1

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    • March 03, 2011, 09:45:24 am
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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2020, 11:59:56 am »
But the human body has often gotten a type of herd immunity eventually.
Lol. A human body can't get herd immunity. Herd immunity is a statistical event when the majority of a population is not at risk of infection. It differs from disease to disease, but for measles that percentage is at around 95%. I imagine herd immunity will mean around 95% as well.
This can be achieved either by rigorous immunization programmes, or by just infecting everybody and letting the weak/susceptible die until only those with active antibodies remain. Depending on the case-fatality ratio, the latter method can be a bad idea as there are modern pathogens out there with a CFR as high as 90% (ie Ebola).

Even local instances of plagues in history died out eventually.  Even the Black Plague lasted in Europe about 4 years. But travel was slow and localized areas were 2 to 3 years.
The black Plague has been around for thousands of years before those plague years. As with all diseases, in order to brew a decent outbreak, there needs to be a minimum population density. Europe happened to cross that threshold in the 1300s.
There were many other outbreaks that killed a lot of people during the Roman period, in India, China, and again in Europe afterwards. They just weren't as devastating, hence less well known. It was endemic for centuries.
In fact, the Black Death (Yersinia pestis if you want the name of the actual pathogen) is still alive and well. The Black Death, while relatively rare, is still killing people today (in China, ironically).  :sad:

Hopefully we'll be able to deal with Covid19 effectively so that it doesn't remain endemic like so many others!


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2020, 12:29:46 pm »
I voted no.
The reason for my no vote is because I am in remission from cancer treatment
which I had 3 years ago.


  • hangook77
  • The Legend

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    • September 14, 2017, 09:10:12 am
    • Near Busan
Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2020, 01:44:14 pm »
Lol. A human body can't get herd immunity. Herd immunity is a statistical event when the majority of a population is not at risk of infection. It differs from disease to disease, but for measles that percentage is at around 95%. I imagine herd immunity will mean around 95% as well.
This can be achieved either by rigorous immunization programmes, or by just infecting everybody and letting the weak/susceptible die until only those with active antibodies remain. Depending on the case-fatality ratio, the latter method can be a bad idea as there are modern pathogens out there with a CFR as high as 90% (ie Ebola).
The black Plague has been around for thousands of years before those plague years. As with all diseases, in order to brew a decent outbreak, there needs to be a minimum population density. Europe happened to cross that threshold in the 1300s.
There were many other outbreaks that killed a lot of people during the Roman period, in India, China, and again in Europe afterwards. They just weren't as devastating, hence less well known. It was endemic for centuries.
In fact, the Black Death (Yersinia pestis if you want the name of the actual pathogen) is still alive and well. The Black Death, while relatively rare, is still killing people today (in China, ironically).  :sad:

Hopefully we'll be able to deal with Covid19 effectively so that it doesn't remain endemic like so many others!


People stopped getting black plague and dying from it.  People stopped getting Spanish flu and dying from it.  There were no vaccines.  Many diseases eventually we built a tolerance too.  Now when Europeans went to the "new world" and they had diseases in them which their immune systems kept at bay, well the poor local population became quite sick.  No ones fault, but things spread until bodies become immune to it. 

As for where it exists in modern places, even in crowded places, the deaths are relatively small.  Though dirty unsanitizing conditions do attract some of those things too. 
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 01:46:05 pm by hangook77 »


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2020, 01:52:19 pm »
Lol. A human body can't get herd immunity. Herd immunity is a statistical event when the majority of a population is not at risk of infection. It differs from disease to disease, but for measles that percentage is at around 95%. I imagine herd immunity will mean around 95% as well.

This is largely based on the virus’s virulence. Measles is highly virulent, with an infected person infecting an average of 12-18 others in a completely susceptible population, hence the extremely high 95% required for herd immunity to be achieved. That number is more like 2-3 with the novel coronavirus, so the herd immunity level is likely to be closer to 50-70% of the population.


  • CO2
  • Waygook Lord

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    • March 02, 2015, 03:41:14 pm
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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2020, 01:54:23 pm »
People stopped getting black plague and dying from it.

You're like a walking meme.

The first thing to say is that this is definitely not pyramid selling, OK?


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #29 on: November 27, 2020, 02:05:42 pm »
I voted no.
The reason for my no vote is because I am in remission from cancer treatment
which I had 3 years ago.

I’m sure there will be certain segments of the population for whom the vaccine won’t be advised. This is the ethical imperative behind getting the vaccine (or wearing masks, or keeping your distance...) if you are able; because there are others who can’t get immunized and would require herd immunity for their own protection. That said, I would consult with your physician before deciding whether or not to get the vaccine when the time comes. It may be that your medical history makes it even more important that you immunize yourself as getting the virus through community transmission would likely be far harder on your immune system. Just like the elderly and others with compromised immune systems like people with HIV are HIGHLY ADVISED to get the flu vaccine every year. (Sorry you had a bad experience, LIC.)
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 02:07:30 pm by Don Hobak »


  • Kyndo
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    • March 03, 2011, 09:45:24 am
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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #30 on: November 27, 2020, 02:09:14 pm »
People stopped getting black plague and dying from it.
No. It became endemic. People caught it and died of it fairly frequently right up until the 1800s when better hygiene and, more importantly, antibiotics started to appear.
Even today, people are still getting and dying from the black plague. Not often, but it's still out there. It pops up not infrequently in Sub-Saharan countries.
There is still the (small) possibility of another Black Death pandemic in our future.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yersinia_pestis#Recent_events


People stopped getting Spanish flu and dying from it.  There were no vaccines.  Many diseases eventually we built a tolerance too. 

You understand that the Spanish flu was a form of Influenza A H1N1, right?  Swine flu, Avian flu, Moroccan flu etc are all iterations of the pathogen that wiped out millions in the early 1900s, just as Covid19 is an iteration of the same pathogen responsible for MERS and SARS etc. People didn't stop getting it: it became endemic. It's been cropping up and wreaking havoc in different areas all over the world pretty regularly these last few decades. Nothing to match the 1918 outbreak, but the potential for it to happen again is all too real, unfortunately.

This wiki link is a pretty good explanation on how they're related, if you're curious!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #31 on: November 27, 2020, 02:10:01 pm »
You're like a walking meme.



Yes, but you leave out the fact that it only killed people who were eventually going to die anyway.  :rolleyes:


  • Kyndo
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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #32 on: November 27, 2020, 02:19:06 pm »
100% of scientists will agree that if they had brought out a vaccine for the Black Death it wouldn't have changed the undeniable fact that they'd all be dead now anyway.
#vaccinesareforchumps


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #33 on: November 27, 2020, 02:56:43 pm »
100% of scientists will agree that if they had brought out a vaccine for the Black Death it wouldn't have changed the undeniable fact that they'd all be dead now anyway.
#vaccinesareforchumps

I don’t blame you for rounding up, but the percentage of scientists who subscribe to that theory only stands at 99.99%, and the remaining (and quite vocal!) 0.01% hold a rather convincing if unorthodox theory of their own based on a novel interpretation of the evidence.

Anyways, I would like to point out that you’re all in good company; as the poll stands now, we’re at 75% of respondents saying “yes”, well above even conservative estimates for covid-19 herd immunity. Hang with us, JNM!
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 03:04:05 pm by Don Hobak »


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #34 on: November 27, 2020, 03:06:15 pm »
I don’t blame you for rounding up, but the percentage of scientists who subscribe to that theory only stands at 99.99%, and the remaining (and quite vocal!) 0.01% hold a rather convincing if unorthodox theory of their own based on a novel interpretation of the evidence.

Anyways, I would like to point out that you’re all in good company; as the poll stands now, we’re at 75% of respondents saying “yes”, well above even conservative estimates for covid-19 herd immunity. Hang with us, JNM!

Maybe a Stossel video explaining the pros of a vaccine could get it higher


  • CO2
  • Waygook Lord

    • 6537

    • March 02, 2015, 03:41:14 pm
    • Uiwang
Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #35 on: November 27, 2020, 03:14:41 pm »
Maybe a Stossel video explaining the pros of a vaccine could get it higher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTSPckv6u18
The first thing to say is that this is definitely not pyramid selling, OK?


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #36 on: November 27, 2020, 03:19:05 pm »
"Stossel Video"

Stossel is always there when we need him


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #37 on: November 27, 2020, 03:24:08 pm »
John Stossel is the Don Hobak of convincing arguments.


  • JNM
  • The Legend

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    • January 19, 2015, 10:16:48 am
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Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #38 on: November 27, 2020, 07:54:24 pm »
...

Anyways, I would like to point out that you’re all in good company; as the poll stands now, we’re at 75% of respondents saying “yes”, well above even conservative estimates for covid-19 herd immunity. Hang with us, JNM!

The sample is not representative.

Most respondents have at least a BA, and are (at least partly) outside the echo-chambers that are modern media.


Re: Coronavirus Vaccine Poll
« Reply #39 on: November 27, 2020, 10:49:48 pm »
The sample is not representative.

Most respondents have at least a BA, and are (at least partly) outside the echo-chambers that are modern media.

Exit our unrepresentative bubble at your own risk, though if you’re staying in Korea, I have little doubt that any vaccine resistance here will remain fairly insignificant.