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  • JNM
  • The Legend

    • 4670

    • January 19, 2015, 10:16:48 am
    • Seoul, South Korea
Re: Have a Happy Deathgiving
« Reply #40 on: November 26, 2020, 05:48:37 pm »
Then as you said, it becomes a mild persistent danger, even more so than it is now because with the help of even a modestly effective vaccine we can quickly get to herd immunity levels. And society will adapt, as it has after every major epidemic, but no reason to think we’re all going to be holed up in our apartments any more than we already choose to be with the advent of streaming entertainment.

I am concerned that vaccination rates will be too low for herd immunity to be effective.

Anti-vax sentiments tend to concentrate in communities (churches and other similar social circles) allowing for significant clusters of unvaccinated people.

Herd immunity only works when unvaccinated individuals have infrequent contact with potential carriers (i.e. other unvaccinated individuals.)


  • gogators!
  • The Legend

    • 4413

    • March 16, 2016, 04:35:48 pm
    • Seoul
Re: Have a Happy Deathgiving
« Reply #41 on: November 26, 2020, 07:44:55 pm »
I am concerned that vaccination rates will be too low for herd immunity to be effective.

Anti-vax sentiments tend to concentrate in communities (churches and other similar social circles) allowing for significant clusters of unvaccinated people.

Herd immunity only works when unvaccinated individuals have infrequent contact with potential carriers (i.e. other unvaccinated individuals.)
US is planning on spending millions on ads persuading people to get vaccinated. Hopefully, they work.


Re: Have a Happy Deathgiving
« Reply #42 on: November 26, 2020, 08:34:29 pm »
I am concerned that vaccination rates will be too low for herd immunity to be effective.

Anti-vax sentiments tend to concentrate in communities (churches and other similar social circles) allowing for significant clusters of unvaccinated people.

Herd immunity only works when unvaccinated individuals have infrequent contact with potential carriers (i.e. other unvaccinated individuals.)

“When a Vaccine Arrives, People Will Ignore the Anti-Vaxxers”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/people-are-suffering-too-much-refuse-vaccine/614818/

Quote
A coronavirus vaccine won’t meet the same resistance as the measles vaccine, because although few Americans have direct experience with the dangers posed by measles, dying patients and empty shops daily remind us of the urgency of vanquishing the current pandemic. And because the coronavirus is far less infectious, the country would achieve herd immunity even if a sizable minority of Americans refused to vaccinate themselves against COVID-19.
In other words, as long as America proves capable of delivering a safe and effective vaccine to its citizens, it will contain the coronavirus. Without a doubt, some Americans will refuse to get vaccinated. But their number is likely to be too small to defeat the effort to end the pandemic.

This is written about the American context, but I imagine America has an outsized proportion of anti-vaxxers among its population (Could be wrong) so other countries should be even less worried. As anti-vaxxers largely overlap with science-deniers and people otherwise resistant to collective pandemic protective measures, a decent proportion of them might have already gained some degree of immunity from infection, and if not, a fair number of them will be able to gain immunity the same way after refusing the vaccine, but not likely in large enough numbers to overwhelm the medical infrastructure. But until you gain immunity yourself, I guess just be careful what circles you run with.

I’m sorry to bring him up here, but I do wonder what Trump’s influence is among this crowd, and which way it will fall. I believe he has expressed anti-vax sentiments in the past, but he had been really selling the vaccine over the summer when he had hopes that one might be approved in time to boost his re-election effort. Since he is largely indifferent to the fortunes of anyone but himself, I don’t see him continuing to be a vaccine-backer now that his time in office is almost over, but if he sees it being successful I could see him try to take credit for it and inadvertently give the vaccine a booster shot in that regard. Then again, if he sees enough of his base express continued skepticism of it, he might again champion their cause. I might be ascribing too much influence to him on this matter though, especially post-presidency.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 08:55:27 pm by Don Hobak »


  • Kyndo
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 1713

    • March 03, 2011, 09:45:24 am
    • Gyeongsangbuk-do
Re: Have a Happy Deathgiving
« Reply #43 on: November 27, 2020, 07:41:08 am »
I suspected I wasn’t saying anything you weren’t already more knowledgeable than me about and far more capable of articulating!  :wink:
Ha! No, I just fake it really well.


About the Covid19 vaccine: how effective will it be? I've heard that a lot of people don't have a strong antibody response even after infection. And there's also the issue that Influenza and the Corona virus both are notorious for rapid mutations. Will the vaccine provide protection for more than a season or two, or will this be the first in a very long (and potentially profitable) series of booster shots, just like the flu vaccines?


Also, it might be interesting for somebody to make a poll to see how many of us plan on taking the vaccine, assuming that it has been proven safe and reasonably effective. You know, so that I'll know how many people I'll be offending when I laugh at anti-vaxxers.  :laugh:
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 07:46:13 am by Kyndo »


  • 745sticky
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1144

    • March 26, 2020, 01:52:57 pm
    • Korea
Re: Have a Happy Deathgiving
« Reply #44 on: November 27, 2020, 07:42:52 am »
I don’t see him continuing to be a vaccine-backer now that his time in office is almost over, but if he sees it being successful I could see him try to take credit for it and inadvertently give the vaccine a booster shot in that regard.

Lucky for you, this is pretty much exactly what's happening right now. He's pushing the vaccine super hard since he wants getting the vaccine out to be part of his legacy or whatever.


Re: Have a Happy Deathgiving
« Reply #45 on: November 27, 2020, 10:54:39 am »
Ha! No, I just fake it really well.

Better than I, but let me give it another try here... :police:

About the Covid19 vaccine: how effective will it be? I've heard that a lot of people don't have a strong antibody response even after infection. And there's also the issue that Influenza and the Corona virus both are notorious for rapid mutations. Will the vaccine provide protection for more than a season or two, or will this be the first in a very long (and potentially profitable) series of booster shots, just like the flu vaccines?
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have reported an efficacy of around 95% during clinical trials, and AstraZeneca has said theirs has an efficacy of “up to” 90%, but efficacy in trials is different from effectiveness in the real world, which is bound to be somewhat lower.

I’ve heard that antibody response is connected to the severity of the infection and viral load, with those suffering more severe illness generating a stronger antibody response.

I don’t believe this virus mutates at nearly the rate the the season flu does, but I’m not sure it matters all that much as far as the vaccine is concerned because they all target the spike proteins that give the virus its signature “corona” and is a quite stable component.

I think all three vaccines mentioned so far are designed to be given in two doses a few months apart. I doubt they’ll know when/whether a booster shot will be required beyond that at this point, but I’ve read in studies of infectees who produce a robust antibody response that there’s good cause to believe that protection from reinfection may last several years, if not longer.

I feel like the Life Improvement of vaccines at this point, who himself is the Johnny Appleseed of Stossel, but on second thought my responses are too wordy and lack YouTube video credibility to make the comparison a fair one.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 10:56:39 am by Don Hobak »