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  • VanIslander
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2018

    • June 02, 2011, 10:12:19 am
    • Seogwipo, Jeju Island
    more
Typhoon Maysak 2020
« on: September 02, 2020, 08:22:13 am »
The only category 1 or 2 typhoons to hit the peninsula this century were in 2003 and 2012. Add 2020.

Most typhoons weaken to tropical storm or tropical depression status by the time it arrives, or else it misses the peninsula, like Bavi in the Yellow Sea/West Sea last week, or many other typhoons that turn toward Japan, the sea water temps off the Japanese south coasts being warmer.

Typhoon Maysak is projected to still be a category 2 typhoon (cat 1 at least) AND its path is directly to the peninsula. The US military Stars & Stripes projects landfall 40 km west of the Jinhae naval base (near Busan). The KMA has inferior equipment due to underfunding and still pimps last week's unrevised projection of a more eastern path just missing Busan in the East Sea.

Looking at sites from the US military, Japan, Taiwan, NASA and wunderground, ... typhoon Maysak is CLEARLY A DEADLY FORCE heading straight here.

Why is BTS and the new Samsung phone headline news here but in other countries the headline is: One of strongest typhoons ever to hit S. Korea.

10-20 people will likely die tonight. I was here in 2003 when typhoon Maemi killed a mother and her son on my street on Geoje Island, the wall of their home collapsing. I was hiding out in a new PC room building that seemed strong. My rooftop apartment on a 4-floor villa was too flimsy i thought and indeed the windows blew out and a flying tree broke my front door. The island had no electricity for four days. 77 people in Gyeongsangnamdo died. It was a category 2 typhoon directly hitting the province.

Maysak is projected to be a category 2 typhoon directly hitting the province. The government should be taking extraordinary measures; getting out the message to tell people to stay home. Quarantine from 8pm to 4am tonight!

Unfortunately my own coworkers are downplaying it, citing last week's Bavi typhoon as a big typhoon that caused little damage. I say: But Bavi MISSED S. Korea! It was in the sea and made landfall in N. Korea. Ugh.

Stay home guys. I have told my 8pm-10pm TOEIC students to not come to class tonight. I dunno what my hagwon director thinks, and i don't care. This is serious.


Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2020, 08:30:24 am »
I have never known there to be more than 2 typhoons in a year here, at most.  This year we are on, what?  6 or 7?  Something very strange going on with the weather.  Two month raining season.  Summer almost seems like it's finished already as the nights are cooler, while the day time is still hot.  Very very weird.  I slept through Bavi which shows how much it missed the mid/upper west coast.  Could it be, in part,  with fewer flights and the pollution from them because of Covid-19?  Very strange. 


  • theman3285
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1019

    • June 16, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2020, 08:36:32 am »
I live in Yeosu. Looks like we'll be taking the brunt of this beast.

Our apartment building is pretty old, and tall. Is it possible for an apartment building to collapse during a typhoon? Serious question


Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2020, 08:38:56 am »
I live in Yeosu. Looks like we'll be taking the brunt of this beast.

Our apartment building is pretty old, and tall. Is it possible for an apartment building to collapse during a typhoon? Serious question

Not just possible. Very common in fact.


  • theman3285
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1019

    • June 16, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2020, 08:39:43 am »
Not just possible. Very common in fact.
F***. So that's actually happened in Korea before?


Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2020, 08:43:09 am »
F***. So that's actually happened in Korea before?

With the high building standards and regulations here, it will most likely not happen to your building.


  • theman3285
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1019

    • June 16, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2020, 08:46:31 am »
Well if I stop posting after today, you know what happened :angel:


  • VanIslander
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2018

    • June 02, 2011, 10:12:19 am
    • Seogwipo, Jeju Island
    more
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2020, 08:49:08 am »
Could it be, in part,  with fewer flights and the pollution from them because of Covid-19?
That seems like a stretch. But could the level of particulate matter have much effect  on the evaporation rate? More likely there could be an indirect effect of reduced pollution on global warming, increasing sea surface temps at the equator, spurring more cyclonic storm formations.

In any event,...

This is the first typhoon in over half a decade that meets both of these conditions:
a) it's projected to be still of typhoon category strength when it is near; and
 b) it's projected to hit the peninsula.

Frustrating is the local news coverage when usually gloss over significant details, making it seem like Korea has multiple typhoons a year instead of just weakened tropical storms and the outer edges of rain and wind from turned typhoons. To what effect? THE.BOY.WHO.CRIED.W OLF. Typhoon Maysak is seen as just another typhoon approaching Korea. The significant differences between this one and the reports of every other typhoon over the last eight years is lost.


  • thunderlips
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1989

    • June 07, 2012, 10:01:55 am
    • South Korea
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2020, 08:50:54 am »
Yeah this one might get blustery. Better safe than sorry.

I've also been getting the emergency alerts about the storm, so they are doing some warning.


  • VanIslander
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2018

    • June 02, 2011, 10:12:19 am
    • Seogwipo, Jeju Island
    more
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2020, 08:55:09 am »
I live in Yeosu. Looks like we'll be taking the brunt of this beast.
Actually, the eastern side of a typhoon has the strongest winds, but yeah, you will get a whallop.

Quote
Our apartment building is pretty old, and tall. Is it possible for an apartment building to collapse during a typhoon? Serious question
In 2003 I left my old rooftop apartment and spent the storm in a NEW building's PC room, avout a dozen of us hunkered under the desks when the power went out abd windows shattered.

I recommend you go somewhere safe from 8pm to 4am tonight.

In 2003 eleven people died in a singing room night club in Masan because they stayed in the basement and typhoon Maemi's flash floods drowned them in the rooms.


  • VanIslander
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2018

    • June 02, 2011, 10:12:19 am
    • Seogwipo, Jeju Island
    more
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2020, 09:00:34 am »
As for buildings falling down, i already mentioned in the op that a mother and child were killed on my street when  typhoon Maemi (a category 2 typhoon like Maysak) knocked the wall over onto the bed they were huddled on.

The nearby ferry terminal on Geoje island collapsed. A car rolled onto it as well.

There have only been six recorded typhoons of this projected strength and direct path EVER recorded in South Korea. It is that serious.


  • theman3285
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1019

    • June 16, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2020, 09:29:23 am »
a mother and child were killed on my street when  typhoon Maemi (a category 2 typhoon like Maysak) knocked the wall over onto the bed they were huddled on.
Man, that is so incredibly sad. What a shit way to go.


Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2020, 09:35:28 am »
I live in Yeosu. Looks like we'll be taking the brunt of this beast.

Our apartment building is pretty old, and tall. Is it possible for an apartment building to collapse during a typhoon? Serious question

A typhoon is not going to collapse a massive apartment building with proper foundations. The biggest risk, if you stay inside, is shattered windows, so keep your kid as far away from large windows as possible.


  • VanIslander
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2018

    • June 02, 2011, 10:12:19 am
    • Seogwipo, Jeju Island
    more
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2020, 09:42:13 am »
The only good thing about this typhoon is that it is moving significantly faster than normal, so rainfall and flooding will be less than it could have been, yet the winds no less furious and flooding plus landslides still expected to some degree.


  • theman3285
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1019

    • June 16, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2020, 09:51:42 am »
keep your kid as far away from large windows as possible
Amen.


Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2020, 09:53:36 am »
I'd like to point out that back in the U.S. or in other hurricane/typhoon prone areas, a Cat 1/2 generally draws a yawn. Take precautions, but most people will just ride them out.

Now that doesn't mean that should apply here, just that Cat 1s/2s tend to draw indifferent reactions elsewhere.

Also, the headline in other countries is for clickbait reasons. Same as why other countries freak out about Kim threats while people here yawn. They need to sexy it up.

Finally, there's only so much that can be done. It's not like folks here can hop over to the local Lowe's and buy plywood to board up their windows. You can't do a mass evac in a country like Korea, where you'd probably kill more people in the evac than from the typhoon. And you can't huddle everyone in bomb shelters with Corona going on. Bout all you can do is stay away from windows and flood prone areas.

Can we get a second opinion on all of this, possibly from an American from Florida or Louisiana?
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 10:11:36 am by Mr.DeMartino »


  • theman3285
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1019

    • June 16, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2020, 09:57:28 am »
A typhoon is not going to collapse a massive apartment building with proper foundations
I'll take your word for it since you've actually been to my apartment lol. Was about to book my family into a hotel for the night


  • Lazio
  • Super Waygook

    • 404

    • January 27, 2018, 03:56:10 pm
    • Gyeongi-do
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2020, 10:09:37 am »
The only category 1 or 2 typhoons to hit the peninsula this century were in 2003 and 2012. Add 2020.

Can't be arsed to check 20 years but I know for a fact that in 2010, typhoon Kompasu was still a Cat1 when it passed right over Seoul.

You are right though about the kma track projection. I usually check the JTWC and I have noticed that they consistently put the path of Maysak way West of kma's path. It's not just now but for the past several days. I would put my money on the JTWC forecast.

Oh, and a few days after, another similarly strong typhoon can affect the south-eastern parts of the country. The jtwc puts it right near Busan with around 85-90kts wind speeds. Of course it's still far out and the forecast might change.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 10:23:01 am by Lazio »


  • VanIslander
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 2018

    • June 02, 2011, 10:12:19 am
    • Seogwipo, Jeju Island
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Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2020, 10:18:49 am »
Typhoon Kompasu was a category 1 on Sept 1st 2010 but NASA reported it a Tropical Storm (the rating below Typhoon) on September 2nd.

Kompasu hit Seoul after 6am on September 2nd.

According to the NASA site:

Quote
September 2, 2010

Tropical Storm Kompasu was captured by the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite at 02:15 UTC on Sept. 2> View larger image
This visible image of Tropical Storm Kompasu was captured by the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite at 02:15 UTC on Sept. 2 (10:15 p.m. EDT Sept. 1) as it was moving over Korea and China.
Credit: NASA/MODIS Rapid Response TeamNASA Satellite Sees Tropical Storm Kompasu Transitioning over Korea and China

NASA's Terra satellite captured the changing Tropical Storm Kompasu over Korea and China very early today, as it makes its way east to northern Japan. It is becoming extratropical.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Kompasu at 02:15 UTC on Sept. 2 (10:15 p.m. EDT Sept. 1) as it was moving over Korea and China.
Of course news reports in Korea kept saying typhoon, typhoon like they do every system, even when they become tropical storms or tropical depressions.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 10:23:54 am by VanIslander »


  • thunderlips
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1989

    • June 07, 2012, 10:01:55 am
    • South Korea
Re: Typhoon Maysak 2020
« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2020, 10:23:39 am »
I'll take your word for it since you've actually been to my apartment lol. Was about to book my family into a hotel for the night

Yes because as we know Korean codes are always enforced to a T.