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  • SPQR
  • Super Waygook

    • 316

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Canada
Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« on: December 05, 2019, 01:19:07 pm »

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/11/26/2019112601576.html

"Temperatures this winter are expected to be warmer than usual, the Korea Meteorological Administration said."

Well the good old KMA has done it again.  I knew the -10C I saw
on the weather site this morning must have been wrong.

In fact, I don't know why the KMA makes predictions at all.  I have
NEVER known them to be accurate.  Maybe they should concentrate
on Korean weather history or something. They might be able to do that.


  • kyndo
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 5494

    • March 03, 2011, 09:45:24 am
    • Gyeongsangbuk-do
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2019, 01:30:03 pm »
I was gonna say something in their defense, but then I wikied their prediction accuracy rates, and it turns out that its under 45%, among the lowest in the world.
lol


  • 303lmc
  • Adventurer

    • 70

    • March 05, 2019, 05:23:12 pm
    • Gwangju
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2019, 01:34:33 pm »
Does any city ever predict weather well? in Denver they'll say we're getting trace snow and I'll wake up to a foot. and the  reverse, they'll say we're getting a foot and wake up to trace.


  • Datasapien
  • Super Waygook

    • 473

    • February 04, 2012, 09:36:25 pm
    • Chungcheongbuk-do
    more
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2019, 01:38:08 pm »
I think you should wait until the end of winter before ranting about this particular prediction. If it is a bloody cold one I'll have a toast for you, but one (or a few, or even a lot of) cold day(s) doesn't make a cold winter.
"A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man." - Jebediah Springfield.


  • SPQR
  • Super Waygook

    • 316

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Canada
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2019, 01:47:22 pm »
I was gonna say something in their defense, but then I wikied their prediction accuracy rates, and it turns out that its under 45%, among the lowest in the world.
lol

Wow, I was half kidding.  I didn't know it was this bad.


  • gagevt
  • Moderator - LVL 3

    • 1159

    • August 24, 2013, 01:55:38 pm
    • Gyeongbuk
    more
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2019, 02:05:14 pm »
I was gonna say something in their defense, but then I wikied their prediction accuracy rates, and it turns out that its under 45%, among the lowest in the world.
lol

Right? Honestly if you perform that poorly at something that's supposed to be your job. Especially at a job that other people might depend on, don't you think you'd try find a different job, or at least go back to studying? Maybe they simply goofed off during their classes and when test time came, were giving passing marks anyways. Now that they're in the real world, they realize, "Wait, I don't really know what I'm doing.." So their solution is to throw as much money as possible into higher technology to attempt to do their job for them. But technology can't do it all! Am I rambling too much now?
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 02:06:52 pm by gagevt »
"The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword."


Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2019, 02:32:23 pm »
Well the good old KMA has done it again.  I knew the -10C I saw
on the weather site this morning must have been wrong.
Maybe you should have read the article more carefully.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/11/26/2019112601576.html
Quote
A cold Siberian high-pressure front is expected to be weaker from December to February than in previous years.
They're projecting for the winter as a whole, not just a random day in December.

Sounds like you'd fit right in at the KMA!


Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2019, 02:35:39 pm »
and it turns out that its under 45%, among the lowest
lol

Incidentally, I've heard that's the same success rate for you getting drunk in a brewery.


Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2019, 03:50:08 pm »
Even non-Korean weather services give shitty forecasts in Korea because they have to use the same weather data that Korean agencies use, and the weather monitor machines must be stuck in basements or something. Once I was sitting in my car in Daegu, stuck in the worst rainstorm I've ever seen in Korea. I glanced at Accuweather and it said the weather was sunny and fair with 0% chance of rain.
Quote
Quote from: Mr.DeMartino on Yesterday at 01:40:32
    Trump is a liar and a con man.
Quote
Quote from Mr.DeMartino on June 14, 2019 at 02:28:07
Donald Trump is a lying sack of shit


  • SPQR
  • Super Waygook

    • 316

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Canada
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2019, 04:24:19 pm »
Actually the US Army"s 607th weather squadron forecasts Korean
weather independently using its own assets.

I'm not sure how to access their forecasts.


  • kyndo
  • Moderator LVL 1

    • 5494

    • March 03, 2011, 09:45:24 am
    • Gyeongsangbuk-do
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2019, 04:27:18 pm »
Even non-Korean weather services give shitty forecasts in Korea because they have to use the same weather data that Korean agencies use, and the weather monitor machines must be stuck in basements or something. Once I was sitting in my car in Daegu, stuck in the worst rainstorm I've ever seen in Korea. I glanced at Accuweather and it said the weather was sunny and fair with 0% chance of rain.
To be fair, South Korea is basically a series of complex mountain systems, which are notoriously difficult to forecast. Still, 45%...  :rolleyes:

Incidentally, I've heard that's the same success rate for you getting drunk in a brewery.
Coincidentally, it's also the percentage at which Waygook warnings turn into 30 day mutings.   :police:


  • SPQR
  • Super Waygook

    • 316

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Canada
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2019, 07:08:36 am »
-15


Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2019, 08:36:02 am »
-15
Dude, until you come back at the end of Feb. with an average temperature for this winter vs. the normal average, this is all meaningless. The article predicted warmer than usual temperatures from Dec. to Feb., not that there was never going to be a cold day ever. If you're going to mock the KMA, don't make basic mistakes like this.


Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2019, 08:45:43 am »
-15
Dude, until you come back at the end of Feb. with an average temperature for this winter vs. the normal average, this is all meaningless. The article predicted warmer than usual temperatures from Dec. to Feb., not that there was never going to be a cold day ever. If you're going to mock the KMA, don't make basic mistakes like this.


  • SPQR
  • Super Waygook

    • 316

    • March 08, 2018, 07:04:54 pm
    • Canada
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2019, 09:12:48 am »
-15
Dude, until you come back at the end of Feb. with an average temperature for this winter vs. the normal average, this is all meaningless. The article predicted warmer than usual temperatures from Dec. to Feb., not that there was never going to be a cold day ever. If you're going to mock the KMA, don't make basic mistakes like this.

OK, boomer.


  • oglop
  • The Legend

    • 2970

    • August 25, 2011, 07:24:54 pm
    • Seoul
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2019, 09:13:58 am »
it's colder than a witch's tit today


  • Lazio
  • Veteran

    • 223

    • January 27, 2018, 03:56:10 pm
    • Gyeongi-do
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2019, 09:25:11 am »
-15

I see -9 for Incheon. Or did you move to Daegwallyeong, Gangwon-do? It was -15 there.

It's not unusual to have these kind of temperatures in early December.
Measured temperatures in Seoul:
2019.12.06   -10.6
2018.12.08   -11.4
2017.12.05   -8.2
2017.12.11   -11
2014.12.06  -8.8
2012.12.06  -10.3
2008.12.06  -13.1




Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2019, 09:54:21 am »
OK, boomer.
You keep using that. Do you even understand how and when to use it?

1) I'm not a boomer. I'm not even GenX. I'm an early Millennial. Hence the references to The Simpsons, South Park, 90s rap and pop, 90s Kpop, 90s pop culture, while still having awareness of stuff pre-internet. Also, not being a complete knob when it comes to interacting with people from other cultures and being aware of diversity without being insane about it.
2) When you do stuff like not understand how climate, data, science, etc. work, that is more indicative of "boomer" thinking. "This climate and weather science stuff is nonsense. It was ass cold yesterday!"

Aren't you a long-termer here? Aren't you closer to boomer age than me? Or am I mixing you up with FDNY/Cohiba?


  • CO2
  • Waygook Lord

    • 5073

    • March 02, 2015, 03:41:14 pm
    • Gunpo
    more
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2019, 10:03:29 am »
Also, not being a complete knob when it comes to interacting with people from other cultures and being aware of diversity without being insane about it.

I actually love this quote. <3 Never thought of being in a sweet spot.

Too Old: Why are you wearing that? That's Jap clothing!

Too young: Why are you wearing that? That's a Japanese kimono!


  • zola
  • The Legend

    • 2917

    • September 30, 2012, 06:56:11 am
    • Korea
Re: Unusually Warm Winter Lies Ahead
« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2019, 10:14:28 am »
Aren't you a long-termer here? Aren't you closer to boomer age than me? Or am I mixing you up with FDNY/Cohiba?

That's him. AKA the guy who refuses to bus his own table at McDoanld's in Korea.
Kpip! - Martin 2018