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Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #60 on: November 16, 2019, 12:36:05 pm »
OK, but if the big dog fails to protect herself, there are international repercussions. As there have already been initial international repercussions from Trump's betrayal of the Kurds, his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, etc etc etc.
Amazing how some people live in a world of such fear...

Those things have produced and would produce the equivalent of a weak sneeze in world affairs.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #61 on: November 20, 2019, 05:50:27 pm »
Quote
“This kind of demand, not only the exorbitant number, but the way it is being done, could trigger anti-Americanism” in some of the United States’ historically closest allies, said Bruce Klingner, a scholar at the Heritage Foundation think tank and former CIA analyst. “If you weaken alliances, and potentially decrease deterrence and U.S. troop presence, that benefits North Korea, China, and Russia who see the potential for reduced U.S. influence and support for our allies.”

One current official put it more bluntly: “it completely misunderstands the value” of alliances and runs counter to the administration’s strategy of reorienting to focus on so-called great power competition with Russia and China.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-asks-tokyo-quadruple-payments-us-troops-japan/


If you're interested in what all this means (and the omnipotent yet humble foreign policy geniuses in this forum just aren't for you), this podcast gives some clear, succinct perspective from people who actually know stuff: former White House National Security Council spokesman and a former U.S. deputy national security advisor. North and South Korea discussion starts at 45:33.
https://crooked.com/podcast/impeachmentpalooza/


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #62 on: November 20, 2019, 06:53:57 pm »
The U.S. is in steep decline, and the financial health of the govt is particularly bad.

If you run the math (which I have) they are short $220 trillion over the rest of this century (NPV, i.e. fiscal gap). As those obligations come due, along with the rise of China, they will likely be forced to withdraw from Asia. If they don’t, as their position weakens and China’s strengthens, China will eventually just kick them out.

The West’s invasion of this region has lasted far too long. You don’t see China ruling Mexico from afar, with missiles/radar parked in Montreal.


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Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #63 on: November 20, 2019, 08:38:12 pm »
SK just signed a defense agreement with China.  That ain't good.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #64 on: November 21, 2019, 06:33:34 am »
SK just signed a defense agreement with China.  That ain't good.

Great news! Exactly what I've been saying KR should do; get ahead of what's coming this century.

It's absurd that KR should pay the US $5B, when it's the US that wants to be here (to spy and militarily pressure CN). And this extortion will only increase as the USG's financial decline continues. Rather KR should charge the US $50B/yr to stay here (close to 10% of their total military budget, which is what this strategic location is worth). If the US won't pay, then kick them out and charge CN instead. Free market.