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If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« on: October 15, 2019, 11:59:15 am »
Does a nuke-armed North invade? Does China back them, or sit back and wait for the smoke to clear? Who will try to stand in their way? Japan?óha. What happens to all the Westerners living here, in the short, medium, and long term?

Or does life go on just as though the U.S. had still maintained a heavily armed presence? Seems unlikely, given Kimís express desire to unify the peninsula under the DPRK.

Iím not interested in talking about the odds or likelihood of the U.S. withdrawing. The last week in Turkey and Syria has shown what kind of impulsive foolishness is possible at the drop of a hat. But even all that aside, nothing lasts forever. Why shouldnít things change tomorrow?

What do you imagine would follow a U.S. withdrawal, and what would you do?
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 12:01:21 pm by carolina2korea »


  • thunderlips
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1645

    • June 07, 2012, 10:01:55 am
    • South Korea
Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 12:11:54 pm »
So you donít want to discuss the main issue of a likely us pullout?? :D

Ok.

Iíd say Korea finally achieves their dream of complete and total world domination and everyone must then learn korean and how great King Sejong is. Also mandatory kimchi making festivals twice a year.

Iím not interested in discussing the likelihood of Korean World domination.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 12:12:52 pm »
Life goes on pretty much the same.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 12:18:44 pm »
So you donít want to discuss the main issue of a likely us pullout?? :D

Ok.

Iíd say Korea finally achieves their dream of complete and total world domination and everyone must then learn korean and how great King Sejong is. Also mandatory kimchi making festivals twice a year.

Iím not interested in discussing the likelihood of Korean World domination.

I mean, discuss it all you want, but itís the least interesting part of the question.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 12:23:03 pm »
Life goes on pretty much the same.

So you think U.S. military presence in SK has nothing to do with the stability of the region?


  • waygo0k
  • The Legend

    • 3993

    • September 27, 2011, 11:51:01 am
    • Chungnam
Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2019, 12:53:21 pm »
Life goes on pretty much the same here in Korea.

But in other countries that don't have a sophisticated and well organized military (e.g. the Philippines), China will encroach even more into their territories. Plus it might instigate a civil war or two in the region.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2019, 01:15:42 pm »
Life goes on pretty much the same.

So you think U.S. military presence in SK has nothing to do with the stability of the region?
I don't think North Korea is going to launch an assault across the DMZ or that China is going to suddenly demand Korea's capitulation, no.

What do you think would happen?

Let's see what happens with a U.S. withdrawal- Korea and Japan continue to bicker over some glorified rocks and have occasional rows, but never actually come to blows. Well that's certainly a change from now.

North Korea promises fire and destruction at the beginning of spring and harvest, and then otherwise pledges to participate in some joint sports crap or permit 50 families to visit. Things occasionally get really heated, sometimes they chill. Woo big change.

China gives more of a crap about XinJiang, Vietnam, Burma, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Hong Kong than Korea. Woo big change.

Putin thinks about more of a pivot to East Asia, but some crap flares up in the Mideast and he has to focus there. Woo big change.

The one big difference would be loss of money and shared expertise between the US and SK defense apparatus and arms industries. The 2 and 3-star U.S. generals who go before Congress and plead for money for their theater over others wouldn't be able to as they're transferred to Ft. NearIndianCasino back home. Meanwhile SK would have to boost it's domestic defense spending and make some cuts to some social welfare programs or extend the conscription age and whatever party is in power would get booted out of office. And there you have the reason why US troops are over here.


  • SPQR
  • Super Waygook

    • 265

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Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2019, 01:40:26 pm »
The NK military is technologically inferior to the south's.  Therefore
the north would need to use nuclear weapons to achieve their goals.
But, this defeats the purpose of invading, doesn't it.  Above all, China
wants stability in the region, so it would try and dissuade NK from
any such reckless action to begin with,

In the almost impossible event that NK actually successfully invaded
SK without converting huge swaths of Korea to radioactive dust, then
I would suspect most foreigners would just be deported.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2019, 02:33:55 pm »
Why, there's no way that Trump would ever abandon a close US ally! He'd never do something so crazy!
Quote
Quote from: Mr.DeMartino on Yesterday at 01:40:32 PM
    Trump is a liar and a con man.
Quote
Quote from Mr.DeMartino on June 14, 2019 at 02:28:07 pm
Donald Trump is a lying sack of shit


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2019, 02:34:20 pm »
Here's the other thing- there's something like 1-200,000 non-Korean Chinese nationals in Korea. A significant number are students and professionals/academics/etc.

North Korea can't just do a surprise bombardment/nuking and get a bunch of them killed. If they did that, shortly thereafter the PRC would cross the Yalu and Kim's head would end up on a spike.  Or they'd just nuke NK into dust.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2019, 02:36:34 pm »
Why, there's no way that Trump would ever abandon a close US ally! He'd never do something so crazy!
Meh. Obama left Gaddafi out to dry after he served as a model of disarmament post-9/11. We're still dealing with the fallout from that decision, both in Libya and with the damage it did to your credibility and efforts at disarmament.


  • waygo0k
  • The Legend

    • 3993

    • September 27, 2011, 11:51:01 am
    • Chungnam
Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2019, 03:06:42 pm »
SK's military would wipe the floor with NK's military, rinse them out, and then wipe the floor with them again in reverse without breaking a sweat. It's not even a contest.

The one advantage NK does have however, is it can cause devastating damage to SK's economic centre (Seoul/Gyeonggi) within an hour ow two, not to mention the fact that half of SK's population lives within this zone...a very effective deterrent against SK.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2019, 04:17:51 pm »
Life goes on pretty much the same here in Korea.

But in other countries that don't have a sophisticated and well organized military (e.g. the Philippines), China will encroach even more into their territories. Plus it might instigate a civil war or two in the region.

China will continue to push its boundaries regardless. What civil war or two do you see breaking out in East Asia? 


  • LIC
  • Super Waygook

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    • February 15, 2019, 04:39:00 pm
    • NE Hemisphere
Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2019, 04:29:16 pm »
It wouldn't go nuclear. The DPRK would invade and the ROK would turtle. There'd be nork soldiers on Busan beach in a week.

Uber patriotic brain-washed zealots: 1 - desperately don't wanna be here conscripts: 0

China would support 100% and threaten the US with a nuke exchange if they butted and, and they wouldn't. They'd just arm Japan with nukes. Think of the new maritime boundaries China could claim.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2019, 04:54:25 pm »
Life goes on pretty much the same.

So you think U.S. military presence in SK has nothing to do with the stability of the region?
I don't think North Korea is going to launch an assault across the DMZ or that China is going to suddenly demand Korea's capitulation, no.

H.R. McMaster is not so sure. And you'll forgive me if I give his assessment more weight than yours: "The North Koreans have shown, through their words and actions, their intention to blackmail the United States into abandoning our South Korean ally, potentially clearing the path for a second Korean War.Ē
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/09/18/the-risk-of-nuclear-war-with-north-korea

With U.S. out of Korea, China is definitely more emboldened across Asia, and although Putin has shown no direct interest in ROK, he's a master strategist and chaos opportunist, and an event like this certainly draws his attention.


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2019, 04:56:36 pm »
It wouldn't go nuclear. The DPRK would invade and the ROK would turtle. There'd be nork soldiers on Busan beach in a week.

Uber patriotic brain-washed zealots: 1 - desperately don't wanna be here conscripts: 0

China would support 100% and threaten the US with a nuke exchange if they butted and, and they wouldn't. They'd just arm Japan with nukes. Think of the new maritime boundaries China could claim.

just when i thought your takes couldnt get any worse...


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2019, 05:00:55 pm »
Quote
If the US withdraws from Korea?

Doesn't this happen to Songtan Sally every Friday just before the curfew starts?


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2019, 05:02:29 pm »
Why, there's no way that Trump would ever abandon a close US ally! He'd never do something so crazy!
Meh. Obama left Gaddafi out to dry after he served as a model of disarmament post-9/11. We're still dealing with the fallout from that decision, both in Libya and with the damage it did to your credibility and efforts at disarmament.

The West turning its back on on Qaddafi cannot be compared with what's happening in Turkey. Whatever credibility issues, with regards to striking treaties with other dictators, were created by turning on Qaddafi, those issues have been eclipsed absolutely by the handing over on a silver platter of the Kurds, who gave ten thousand lives to fighting ISIS under the strategic direction of the U.S. military. U.S. generals are reporting that they feel this withdrawal and betrayal of their comrades as a stab in the heart.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 05:16:29 pm by carolina2korea »


Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2019, 05:06:42 pm »
SK's military would wipe the floor with NK's military, rinse them out, and then wipe the floor with them again in reverse without breaking a sweat. It's not even a contest.

The NK military is technologically inferior to the south's.  Therefore
the north would need to use nuclear weapons to achieve their goals.
But, this defeats the purpose of invading, doesn't it.  Above all, China
wants stability in the region, so it would try and dissuade NK from
any such reckless action to begin with,

In the almost impossible event that NK actually successfully invaded
SK without converting huge swaths of Korea to radioactive dust, then
I would suspect most foreigners would just be deported.

For China, "stability" means dominance and hegemony.

NK's nukes are not a threat to SK, but they're an absolute threat to anyone who might want to come to SK's aid.

One important tactical advantage the North has is chemical weapons. Lots of them.
https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/chemical/



Re: If US withdraws from Korea - what then?
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2019, 05:10:54 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGKqMi6ZatQ

Probably the most useful response so far. But -- I have to think these scenarios assume U.S.-led strategy and tactics at least assisted by the U.S.

A huge wild card, as far as I'm concerned, is how effective unilateral South Korean strategy can be. Or to put it plainly: SK might have the guns, but without America in charge, can they be trusted to use them effectively?