Read 4412 times

  • LIC
  • Super Waygook

    • 433

    • February 15, 2019, 04:39:00 pm
    • NE Hemisphere
Trump will win in 2020
« on: June 01, 2019, 09:20:49 am »
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7076787/Projection-models-predict-Trump-wins-2020-incumbents-Presidents-good-economies-rarely-lose.html

Trump will WIN in 2020 according to three separate projection models because 'incumbent presidents enjoying good economies rarely ever lose

    Obama era Treasury Secretary counselor Steve Rattner wrote a column for the New York Times on Monday stating Trump is projected to win in 2020

    Rattner cited three prediction models that foresaw Obama's White House victories in 2008 and 2012 as well as Trump's surprise win in 2016

    Yale professor Ray Fair's model found Trump's 2020 vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent, but notes 'that's before factoring in his personality'

    Moody's economist Mark Zandi has analyzed 12 2020 prediction models and determined Trump won in all of them

    Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics examined the Electoral College and reached the same conclusion

    Gross domestic product and inflation growth rates are vital economic predictors

    Incumbency is usually a good determinant of presidential election outcomes

    Of the 20 incumbent US presidents before Trump who have been up for re-election only five, roughly 26 percent including Gerald Ford, have lost

By Chauncey Alcorn For Dailymail.com

Published: 06:47 BST, 28 May 2019 | Updated: 19:06 BST, 28 May 2019

Donald Trump's poll numbers may be trending downward, but the president's odds of winning re-election are looking up, according to economists.

Obama administration Treasury Secretary adviser Steve Rattner wrote a New York Times opinion column about Trump's 2020 White House chances on Monday.

In his piece, Rattner, who served as counselor under former Treasury Secretary Tim Geittner, focused on three reports on prediction models from accredited economists who all found Trump will most likely retain his presidency next fall.

These same models foresaw Barack Obama's historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump's unexpected victory in 2016.

Moody's economist and Trump critic Mark Zandi has analyzed 12 prediction models for 2020 that evaluate economic trends at the state level and add political factors such as a president's approval rating.

Zandi said Trump won in all  12 models in spite of his character.

'If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,' Zandi told Politico in March. 'In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He's got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.'

Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics examined the likely Electoral College outcomes and reached the same conclusion as Zandi.

Rattner also noted that some of the models that predicted Trump would win in 2016 overestimated his margin of victory by an uncharacteristically high margin, which he credits to Trump's polarizing persona.

Yale economics professor Ray Fair's model found Trump's 2020 vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent, but notes 'that's before factoring in his personality'.

Polls suggest Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump even though many on the Left are opposed to the former Vice President winning the Democratic nomination.

Rattner noted that Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin of roughly three million people.

'I'm quite confident that the [prediction model] gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump's personal qualities,' Rattner wrote. 'In other words, a more 'normal' Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes).'

The key factors working in Trump's favor at the moment are his incumbency and America's currently good economy.

CBS News notes that of the 20 incumbent US presidents before Trump who have been up for re-election only five, roughly 26 percent including Gerald Ford, have lost.

'The question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters' poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election,' Rattner said.

Personally I hope Trump wins for the sole reason of giving the whinging leftists 4 more years of crying. Plus, I think the leftists are dumb. It's clear they have no credible candidate and still can't stop their anti-Trump attack model of securing the Presidency. It didn't work before, it isn't working now and it's not gonna work tomorrow. If they can't figure that out, they deserve 4 more years of Trump.


Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2019, 10:21:14 am »
 LIC: agree with you for the most part, especially your postscript...

 A couple of points:

Joe Biden is a senile closet Pedo who - along with his son, is owned lock, stock, and barrel by China. No chance!

 I disagree that the majority of voters have a 'poor opinion of him'; if you buy the MSM's bullshit that may be the projection, but I don't believe that's otherwise true at all.

 As for the rest of the Dems: The ONLY Democrat among all of their 'candidates' who can even spell words like INTEGRITY, HONOUR, LOYALTY, and COMMON SENSE is Tulsi Gabbard...Too bad she's embroiled in that dysfunctional snake pit. I'd like to see her do well, but I'm afraid she will never be accepted by the majority of cravenly - deranged leftist/'progressive' guttersnipes!



  • Mr C
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1721

    • October 17, 2012, 03:00:40 pm
    • Seoul
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2019, 12:14:30 am »
LIC: agree with you for the most part, especially your postscript...

 A couple of points:

Joe Biden is a senile closet Pedo who - along with his son, is owned lock, stock, and barrel by China. No chance!

 I disagree that the majority of voters have a 'poor opinion of him'; if you buy the MSM's bullshit that may be the projection, but I don't believe that's otherwise true at all.

 As for the rest of the Dems: The ONLY Democrat among all of their 'candidates' who can even spell words like INTEGRITY, HONOUR, LOYALTY, and COMMON SENSE is Tulsi Gabbard...Too bad she's embroiled in that dysfunctional snake pit. I'd like to see her do well, but I'm afraid she will never be accepted by the majority of cravenly - deranged leftist/'progressive' guttersnipes!
I'm not going to respond to your disgraceful characterization of Biden, but you used the words INTEGRITY, HONOUR, LOYALTY, and COMMON SENSE. Ö

Are you suggesting these words describe Donald J Drumpf?


  • CO2
  • The Legend

    • 4777

    • March 02, 2015, 03:41:14 pm
    • Gunpo
    more
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2019, 12:41:10 am »
I am centre left, although I have some conservative views.

The worst thing that the left can do is "Well, obvioulsy Trump is bad, America knows that they won't make that mistake again............

No.

No............... You need to convince the right that you have a better option. It's not good enough to say that "We are the good guys" "We are the party that is not racist."

Trump voters, by and large, aren't racist. Give them a reason to come into your fold. Saying "America won't make the same mistake............" isn't good enough.

Andrew Yang is trying this. He isn't playing the identity card. Disagree with him all you want, but he's offering the middle/lower class some sort of vision/hope.

Telling Trump voters that they made a mistake isn't going to get you the vote. Give us something that we can latch onto, and that isn't "You have been duped/Trump is bad."

Give us a reason.
The joys of fauxtherhood


  • HappyPlanetAbuser
  • Super Waygook

    • 260

    • May 30, 2019, 11:30:16 pm
    • in my car polluting your air
    more
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2019, 01:16:33 am »
Stop talking sense into them, I need Trump to win 2020 and screw up the US economy some more.
I'm shorting heavily.
Who's ready for another 4 years of Trump 2020!


  • waygo0k
  • The Legend

    • 3960

    • September 27, 2011, 11:51:01 am
    • Chungnam
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2019, 06:29:30 am »
Iím starting to think Trunp will indeed win 2020.

Why?

Because the DNC have insisted on running the same game they ran in 2016: a centre left corporate-friendly establishment democrat.

They are pushing hard for anyone not progressive and definitely anyone not Bernie.

Why?

Their donors have massively benefited from the Trump presidency. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45736.html

A Trump win in 2020  would continue those gains for the donors.

If the DNC get their pro-establishment candidate to win...their donors still make gains.

The young left and progressives in general have been warning the DNC they will NOT vote for an establishment candidate who runs against trump.

That is not an idle threat...millennials are now the countryís largest voting demographic, and they are massively progressive, way to the left of almost any establishment candidate. We saw their imprint on the 2018 mid-terms.

I wouldnít say centrism is dead. Iíd say itís in a coma, and should be put on ice. This is not the time to run a centrist candidate, and especially not a centrist candidate who says they lean left but actually does things right wingers would be proud of.

Time to buckle in boys and girls...the next 3-4 years will be a hell of a ride!


  • LIC
  • Super Waygook

    • 433

    • February 15, 2019, 04:39:00 pm
    • NE Hemisphere
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2019, 11:39:20 am »
I am centre left, although I have some conservative views.

The worst thing that the left can do is "Well, obvioulsy Trump is bad, America knows that they won't make that mistake again............

No.

No............... You need to convince the right that you have a better option. It's not good enough to say that "We are the good guys" "We are the party that is not racist."

Trump voters, by and large, aren't racist. Give them a reason to come into your fold. Saying "America won't make the same mistake............" isn't good enough.

Andrew Yang is trying this. He isn't playing the identity card. Disagree with him all you want, but he's offering the middle/lower class some sort of vision/hope.

Telling Trump voters that they made a mistake isn't going to get you the vote. Give us something that we can latch onto, and that isn't "You have been duped/Trump is bad."

Give us a reason.

This!

I have been saying these exact words since Trump announced he was running. There's a great Howard Stern interview you should watch in which he says Trump entered as a joke. Stern is close to Trump.

The Democrats are stupid. They think attacking everything Trump will win. I watched CNN for the first time in weeks the other day and it's still the same crap narrative:

Trump bad..........

It didn't work. It isn't working. It will not work.

Trump 2020 because Dems are dumb.

FYI I think Trump is an idiot. I have no dog in the game. I don't care because it has zero effect on me, my life or my family. 


  • NorthStar
  • Expert Waygook

    • 736

    • July 05, 2017, 10:54:06 am
    • Mouseville
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2019, 11:52:19 am »
Quote
This!

I have been saying these exact words since Trump announced he was running. There's a great Howard Stern interview you should watch in which he says Trump entered as a joke. Stern is close to Trump.

The Democrats are stupid. They think attacking everything Trump will win. I watched CNN for the first time in weeks the other day and it's still the same crap narrative:

Trump bad..........

It didn't work. It isn't working. It will not work.

Trump 2020 because Dems are dumb.

FYI I think Trump is an idiot. I have no dog in the game. I don't care because it has zero effect on me, my life or my family. 

I find it odd, that many of those who are blaming Trump for all of the country's problems, are the ones that have already been in office for so many years...

I guess it is a case of hoping to wear folks down until they give in for no good reason. 

It is all a show, for the most part...two sides of the same coin.


  • HappyPlanetAbuser
  • Super Waygook

    • 260

    • May 30, 2019, 11:30:16 pm
    • in my car polluting your air
    more
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2019, 05:58:26 pm »
I f-ing LOVE Trump!  :azn:
I'm making money hand over fist!

Quote
Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that it could cost US consumers $93 billion.

« Last Edit: June 02, 2019, 06:21:17 pm by HappyPlanetAbuser »
Who's ready for another 4 years of Trump 2020!


  • gogators!
  • The Legend

    • 3776

    • March 16, 2016, 04:35:48 pm
    • Seoul
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2019, 06:11:29 pm »
They make valid points, that will help the Dems keep their eye on the prize and not take their feet off the gas pedal like Hilary did. Economy has been good for the rich but not many others, which is why that argument is not connecting with lots of voters. GDP is projected at less than 2% for the second quarter.  Stocks just took a solid hit and there could be more to come.  trump wants the fed to bail him out but with inflation low and rate still well below normal, that ain't gonna happen.

The Dems who didn't vote in 2016 are being energized by trump's immigration policy, his support of white nationalism and obvious racism, his rear guard attacks on heath care and other safety net programs. Some of his former supporters won't vote for him for many reasons. That includes midwesterners hurt bad by the tariffs.


  • waygo0k
  • The Legend

    • 3960

    • September 27, 2011, 11:51:01 am
    • Chungnam
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2019, 06:29:26 pm »
It’s not enough.

Trump has definitely lost a large chunk of the centrists, but the majority his base still have a raging hard on for him.

A lot of well to do republicans will hold their nose and vote for him because of their bank accounts and assets, the not so wealthy ones will vote for him because of the euphoria the things he says and does gives them.

The dems on the other hand, only have the centrists IF they end up running Biden or any centre-left candidate.

Anyone who can convince progressives to vote for them on these 3 things (guaranteed federal jobs program, guaranteed living wage, Medicare for all) will beat Trump...why? Because that same message also resonates with Trump voters.

The difference is that progressives want these things for everyone, whereas trump voters want these things only for a select group of “deserving” people (guess who?)...but ultimately, if they feel they can get it, they will abandon trump in droves, even if it means those they class as “undesirables” also get the same benefits.

It’s safe to say these massive social programs are bad news for corporations and anyone with a minimum of 6 figures in wealth to their name...but in a country where half of the working population earn less than $30k per year, and where people often have to choose between death and bankruptcy...the poor are sharpening their forks and knives. Who they end up eating (the rich? Each other?) still remains to be seen.


  • HappyPlanetAbuser
  • Super Waygook

    • 260

    • May 30, 2019, 11:30:16 pm
    • in my car polluting your air
    more
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2019, 06:38:14 pm »
Nah mate, these blue collar folks and simple farmers love paying for Trump's pipedream.
What you need to do is just give up on the Dems and join the Reps point of view of trickle-down- nothing and abuse their gullible faith in him. He's not stupid, I'm convinced now, he just doesn't care about them. They're losing their livelihoods means we are making loads of $$$ !  :azn:

All this time that I have wasted worrying about the plight of the farmers and working classes, gosh, all I had to do was become less Christian and support Trump! He is 100% on my side !
16 years of Trump, please ! ;D
« Last Edit: June 02, 2019, 07:04:02 pm by HappyPlanetAbuser »
Who's ready for another 4 years of Trump 2020!


  • waygo0k
  • The Legend

    • 3960

    • September 27, 2011, 11:51:01 am
    • Chungnam
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2019, 07:22:56 pm »


Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2019, 07:26:23 pm »
I am centre left, although I have some conservative views.

The worst thing that the left can do is "Well, obvioulsy Trump is bad, America knows that they won't make that mistake again............

No.

No............... You need to convince the right that you have a better option. It's not good enough to say that "We are the good guys" "We are the party that is not racist."

Trump voters, by and large, aren't racist. Give them a reason to come into your fold. Saying "America won't make the same mistake............" isn't good enough.

Andrew Yang is trying this. He isn't playing the identity card. Disagree with him all you want, but he's offering the middle/lower class some sort of vision/hope.

Telling Trump voters that they made a mistake isn't going to get you the vote. Give us something that we can latch onto, and that isn't "You have been duped/Trump is bad."

Give us a reason.

If they weren't racist they wouldn't have voted for Trump and wouldn't continue to support him. He's lost a lot of people but a lot of people still love him because he validates their racism.

And why should liberals listen to conservatives about how they should be treated? Conservatives have never tried to appeal to liberals. This "you're making us support proto-fascism because you're annoying and haven't done anything to earn our vote" bullshit is such garbage. Why should liberals try to "earn back" awful people who have no problem with Trump being the worst president in history?
Quote
Quote from: Mr.DeMartino on Yesterday at 01:40:32 PM
    Trump is a liar and a con man.
Quote
Quote from Mr.DeMartino on June 14, 2019 at 02:28:07 pm
Donald Trump is a lying sack of shit


  • LIC
  • Super Waygook

    • 433

    • February 15, 2019, 04:39:00 pm
    • NE Hemisphere
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2019, 09:49:23 am »
I am centre left, although I have some conservative views.

The worst thing that the left can do is "Well, obvioulsy Trump is bad, America knows that they won't make that mistake again............

No.

No............... You need to convince the right that you have a better option. It's not good enough to say that "We are the good guys" "We are the party that is not racist."

Trump voters, by and large, aren't racist. Give them a reason to come into your fold. Saying "America won't make the same mistake............" isn't good enough.

Andrew Yang is trying this. He isn't playing the identity card. Disagree with him all you want, but he's offering the middle/lower class some sort of vision/hope.

Telling Trump voters that they made a mistake isn't going to get you the vote. Give us something that we can latch onto, and that isn't "You have been duped/Trump is bad."

Give us a reason.

If they weren't racist they wouldn't have voted for Trump and wouldn't continue to support him. He's lost a lot of people but a lot of people still love him because he validates their racism.

And why should liberals listen to conservatives about how they should be treated? Conservatives have never tried to appeal to liberals. This "you're making us support proto-fascism because you're annoying and haven't done anything to earn our vote" bullshit is such garbage. Why should liberals try to "earn back" awful people who have no problem with Trump being the worst president in history?

Are you intimating that a person who voted for Trump is definitely a racist? That's a mouthful. It's language like that cost Hillary a ton of support. It is demonstrably false.


Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2019, 09:54:24 am »
Are you intimating that a person who voted for Trump is definitely a racist? That's a mouthful. It's language like that cost Hillary a ton of support. It is demonstrably false.
It doesn't matter if it's true or not. The important thing is that it makes Mayor Haggar feel better about himself, and it gives him a sense of superiority over others. That's all that matters.


Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2019, 10:27:58 am »
Umm... why are people still talking about Donald Trump?


Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2019, 10:29:23 am »
Are you intimating that a person who voted for Trump is definitely a racist? That's a mouthful. It's language like that cost Hillary a ton of support. It is demonstrably false.
It doesn't matter if it's true or not. The important thing is that it makes Demartian feel better about himself, and it gives him a sense of superiority over others. That's all that matters.

FFY  :-*


  • Adel
  • Expert Waygook

    • 667

    • January 30, 2015, 12:50:26 am
    • The Abyss
    more
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2019, 11:53:15 am »
I am centre left, although I have some conservative views.

The worst thing that the left can do is "Well, obvioulsy Trump is bad, America knows that they won't make that mistake again............

No.

No............... You need to convince the right that you have a better option. It's not good enough to say that "We are the good guys" "We are the party that is not racist."

Trump voters, by and large, aren't racist. Give them a reason to come into your fold. Saying "America won't make the same mistake............" isn't good enough.

Andrew Yang is trying this. He isn't playing the identity card. Disagree with him all you want, but he's offering the middle/lower class some sort of vision/hope.

Telling Trump voters that they made a mistake isn't going to get you the vote. Give us something that we can latch onto, and that isn't "You have been duped/Trump is bad."

Give us a reason.

If they weren't racist they wouldn't have voted for Trump and wouldn't continue to support him. He's lost a lot of people but a lot of people still love him because he validates their racism.

And why should liberals listen to conservatives about how they should be treated? Conservatives have never tried to appeal to liberals. This "you're making us support proto-fascism because you're annoying and haven't done anything to earn our vote" bullshit is such garbage. Why should liberals try to "earn back" awful people who have no problem with Trump being the worst president in history?

Are you intimating that a person who voted for Trump is definitely a racist? That's a mouthful. It's language like that cost Hillary a ton of support. It is demonstrably false.

This tendency towards extremism is typical of the deeply divided political viewpoints in the States these days.  But you're right upholding that type of  'basket of deplorables' attitude is partly what cost the Democrats last time.  It's symptomatic of a highly polarized electorate combined with an equal tenancy to gross over simplification. Both of which are rife on this forum.         


  • Kayos
  • Hero of Waygookistan

    • 1422

    • March 31, 2016, 07:13:57 pm
    • NZ
Re: Trump will win in 2020
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2019, 03:06:15 pm »
Umm... why are people still talking about Donald Trump?

Because he is the kindest, greatest, and sexiest man on earth? :p
Why wouldn't you want to talk about him? :p (Joking)