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Symposium => "Open" Discussions => Topic started by: Mr.DeMartino on August 11, 2021, 01:50:31 pm

Title: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 11, 2021, 01:50:31 pm
What death rate are you willing to accept to return to normal life (no masking, no social distancing measure, no track and trace, etc.)?

This is a conversation a mature populace should be able to have, and should be having.

I think you really have to look at the potential damage prolonged economic shutdown will have. Unintended consequence after unintended consequence is stacking up over this. My best guess is 20-30/100k is where we can accept zero change. After that you have to start incrementally imposing things.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 11, 2021, 06:23:37 pm
While contentious for some, it 's a bit of a no-brainer really. Once, people stop focusing on infections and instead foucus on rates of hospitalisations and deaths per infection to the point where those numbers are equivalent to the influenza then it will be over. One of the many problems at the moment is approval to vaccinate children under 12. While this group doesn't appear to suffer long Covid and the more severe symptoms, not enough is known just yet. They do appear to be prolific spreaders of the disease and if older groups are vaccinated it might not be a problem.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: hangook77 on August 12, 2021, 11:53:20 am
What death rate are you willing to accept to return to normal life (no masking, no social distancing measure, no track and trace, etc.)?

This is a conversation a mature populace should be able to have, and should be having.

I think you really have to look at the potential damage prolonged economic shutdown will have. Unintended consequence after unintended consequence is stacking up over this. My best guess is 20-30/100k is where we can accept zero change. After that you have to start incrementally imposing things.

Your death or someone else's?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 12, 2021, 11:56:24 am
Your death or someone else's?

someone else's, preferably
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 12, 2021, 12:21:02 pm
Your death or someone else's?
There's a chance you can die. That's what X/100K means. Same with accidents, the flu and murders.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: hangook77 on August 12, 2021, 12:27:36 pm
There's a chance you can die. That's what X/100K means. Same with accidents, the flu and murders.

Find a country or a city with a very high murder rate and let's find out....
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 12, 2021, 12:56:47 pm
are you trying to actually take this line of reasoning somewhere hangook or do you just want a reason to come off vaguely threatening
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 12, 2021, 01:06:00 pm
(https://c.tenor.com/PiSYYT9N1Z0AAAAM/mad-angry.gif)

There certainly does appear to be an elevated level of hostility on the board of late.  Have the mods been asleep at the wheel?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: JNM on August 12, 2021, 01:11:58 pm
Since most people don’t have a feel for these, see p.4 for the US numbers on top 10 causes of death in 2018 and 2019:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf

First and second on the list are Heart disease at about 160/100k, and cancer at ~150. No question question we should work on those.

10th is Suicide, at 14/100k.

The thing is, there are resources being put into preventing these deaths. Nobody really sits down and says “yeah, we have done all we can!” and nobody knows where the number would be without the spending.


Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 12, 2021, 01:19:09 pm
Find a country or a city with a very high murder rate and let's find out....
Well, the U.S. is fairly high ATM with 4.96. Livable enough. Back in the 80s, it was double that, which would put it at the same level as Nigera or the Congo or the Dominican Republic or Iraq. I lived through the 80s.

It's why "double" can be a dramatic change or a minor one. Sometimes it's really hard to say which.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: SPQR on August 12, 2021, 01:36:17 pm
99% would be pretty cool. It would be like the "Omega Man".
Cruise the streets high on drugs with lots of guns and stuff.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: macollie on August 12, 2021, 01:55:11 pm
When weighing an opportunity to have a bit more fun vs the lives of the vulnerable, I'm generally going to choose to protect lives. Sorry if that's not the answer you were looking for.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 12, 2021, 01:59:34 pm
When weighing an opportunity to have a bit more fun vs the lives of the vulnerable, I'm generally going to choose to protect lives. Sorry if that's not the answer you were looking for.

its not the answer we're looking for because that isnt the question we're asking. assuming you actually have something you want to contribute, try again without the strawmanning
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: macollie on August 12, 2021, 02:03:31 pm
its not the answer we're looking for because that isnt the question we're asking. assuming you actually have something you want to contribute, try again without the strawmanning

So aggressive.

Okay, I'll try to find the correct question and answer it.

"What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?"

The COVID death rate I am willing to accept for normal life is 0.

Let me know if I made another mistake. Thank you teacher <3
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 12, 2021, 02:10:52 pm
So aggressive.

Okay, I'll try to find the correct question and answer it.

"What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?"

The COVID death rate I am willing to accept for normal life is 0.

Let me know if I made another mistake. Thank you teacher <3

much better. gold star
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 12, 2021, 02:29:07 pm
So aggressive.

Okay, I'll try to find the correct question and answer it.

"What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?"

The COVID death rate I am willing to accept for normal life is 0.

Let me know if I made another mistake. Thank you teacher <3
You mean that there should be things like mask mandates and lockdowns until the death rate is ZERO? As in the disease is completely eradicated? Bear in mind that this is a standard that we have never applied to any disease.

I mean, the bubonic plague still kills a handful of people. We don't grind the country to a halt over it.

Are you aware of the death rate for other infectious diseases pre-COVID? Are you saying we should have had mask mandates and social distancing rules then?

Does this apply to other causes of death? Should we drastically change our lifestyles to prevent them?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 12, 2021, 02:34:19 pm
despite my best efforts, fate has taken its course. let the bonanza begin
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 12, 2021, 03:08:34 pm
despite my best efforts, fate has taken its course. let the bonanza begin
The poster is entitled to their position. I just want to make sure they're clear and then to understand their reasoning. Sometimes people can say something like "Not one death is tolerable" and then when prodded, indicate that they meant that more as an idealistic goal, not a practical standard.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 12, 2021, 03:11:23 pm
The poster is entitled to their position. I just want to make sure they're clear and then to understand their reasoning. Sometimes people can say something like "Not one death is tolerable" and then when prodded, indicate that they meant that more in as an idealistic goal, not a practical standard.

far be it to put words in another poster's mouth, but i'm of the opinion that they were aiming to hit me with either hyperbole or sarcasm, probably both
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 13, 2021, 02:31:39 am


Does this apply to other causes of death? Should we drastically change our lifestyles to prevent them?
So no speed limits, seat belts, car seats, air bags and driver's tests?

Never go full libertarian.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: waygo0k on August 13, 2021, 03:19:23 am
Rather than death rate, I would say till at least 75-80% of the country has been fully vaccinated.

Covid is here to stay. It will be seasonal just like the flu, and in a few decades (if things go according to plan) it will basically be the new flu...inconvenient to have but not a death sentence or a life of disability.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 13, 2021, 09:21:23 am
So no speed limits, seat belts, car seats, air bags and driver's tests?

Never go full libertarian.
The "so" tell for cognitive dissonance and misstating someones opinion.

"So, you think lobsters should wear seatbelts?"

You're equating seatbelts to Stage IV social distancing and mask mandates? To online classes? To the banning of spectator sports and concerts? Seriously?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 13, 2021, 09:33:55 am
The "so" tell for cognitive dissonance and misstating someones opinion.

"So, you think lobsters should wear seatbelts?"

You're equating seatbelts to Stage IV social distancing and mask mandates? To online classes? To the banning of spectator sports and concerts? Seriously?

That's what "So" is when you use it, because you are incapable of having an honest argument. 

The outrage over seatbelts, car registrations, catalytic converters, etc is not largely remembered today, but it was quite strong.  Not like the lunacy we have now, since the moron contingent has been so empowered by having had their poster child in the highest office the last four years.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 13, 2021, 10:01:12 am
That's what "So" is when you use it, because you are incapable of having an honest argument. 

The outrage over seatbelts, car registrations, catalytic converters, etc is not largely remembered today, but it was quite strong.  Not like the lunacy we have now, since the moron contingent has been so empowered by having had their poster child in the highest office the last four years.
If you're the one using "so", it's not me that's being dishonest. There's a reason it's a tell.

Are you seriously equating the effect and disruption of SEAT BELTS and catalytic converters with

1) A ban on dining with 4 or more people after 6PM?
2) The closing of all nightclubs, kareoke joints, and other forms of entertainment?
3) The shuttering of schools and colleges across the country and having kids go from learning in person to learning via digital communication?
4) A major disruption in international travel, essentially suspending the entire international tourism industry?
5) Bans on mass political gatherings?
6) Severe economic disruption and the collapse of certain sectors of the economy due to these measures?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: obwannabe on August 13, 2021, 02:47:09 pm
What death rate are you willing to accept to return to normal life (no masking, no social distancing measure, no track and trace, etc.)?


A death rate approx 5x higher than it is now
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 13, 2021, 08:06:39 pm
A better question that people are actually asking is should medical insurance refuse to cover Covid-19-related hospital costs for unvaccinated people? One proposal was to give them six week advance notice and then cut off their benefits. I'm in favor of it.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 13, 2021, 10:52:52 pm
If you're the one using "so", it's not me that's being dishonest. There's a reason it's a tell.

Are you seriously equating the effect and disruption of SEAT BELTS and catalytic converters with

1) A ban on dining with 4 or more people after 6PM?
2) The closing of all nightclubs, kareoke joints, and other forms of entertainment?
3) The shuttering of schools and colleges across the country and having kids go from learning in person to learning via digital communication?
4) A major disruption in international travel, essentially suspending the entire international tourism industry?
5) Bans on mass political gatherings?
6) Severe economic disruption and the collapse of certain sectors of the economy due to these measures?

I don't know about "effect and disruption" but they are certainly comparable in that they are efforts by well-meaning governments with expert guidance to mitigate or minimize real harms to the citizenry that elected them. 

But, y'know, I'm not crazy about some of this myself--I miss attending baseball and soccer games, for instance.  OTOH, where'd you get that noraebangs are closed?  I went to one on Tuesday night with a friend, after dinner out. 

And while we're at it, we should face the fact that as draconian as you--or I--may think those measures are, they're obviously not enough, as Covid rates here continue to be in the stratosphere. 

I have an acquaintance who was recently whining on FB about having to wear a mask--and he just recovered from a bout in the hospital with Covid and is walking around with some amount of viral lode.  And planning to join a RL meet-up with several others this weekend.  FTR, I won't be there, as I haven't for a year or more, though I've been involved for years. 

As much as anyone, I bemoan the online teaching thing, because I have definitely seen poorer outcomes from my students in the time since this all started.   However, I have been impressed by the investment in both online technologies and the classroom stuff--not just webcams, my school has put in these massive air purifiers in every room, not to mention shields, wipes and sanitizers that would cause some/many American school districts to lay off teachers en masse.

Sadly, there will be lingering effects on certain sectors of the economy, but on the whole Korea seems to be doing okay.  BoK predicts growth of 4% for the year, and exports (it's an export-based economy) hit their highest ever level last month. 
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: VanIslander on August 14, 2021, 02:04:54 am
A person is willing to let others die so one oneself can return to one's regular routine, vacations, etc.

How many others is just a question of the degree one's survivor guilt needs assuaging.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 14, 2021, 04:32:29 am
I thought this video might be helpful as part of an information campaign for some of your students.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2fJkB-LPHc&t=79s
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: grimlock2 on August 14, 2021, 04:56:25 am
A person is willing to let others die so one oneself can return to one's regular routine, vacations, etc.

How many others is just a question of the degree one's survivor guilt needs assuaging.

Did you wear a mask at all times outside the home, observe social distancing etc before Covid when many people died of regular flu? Assuming you didn't there must have been an acceptable, guilt free  risk of death you and society were prepared to tolerate to go on functioning freely.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: VanIslander on August 14, 2021, 06:18:04 am
... you and society...
The important difference.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Kyndo on August 14, 2021, 05:54:58 pm
(https://c.tenor.com/PiSYYT9N1Z0AAAAM/mad-angry.gif)

There certainly does appear to be an elevated level of hostility on the board of late.  Have the mods been asleep at the wheel?
Sorry, yeah, I'm on vacay. I pop in once a day to make sure stuff isn't on fire or Northstar has made another alt, but cant be anywhere near as thorough as when I'm at school on a regular workday.
Flag bad comments and I'll axe them! Eventually!
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: T.J. on August 14, 2021, 09:33:49 pm
A better question that people are actually asking is should medical insurance refuse to cover Covid-19-related hospital costs for unvaccinated people? One proposal was to give them six week advance notice and then cut off their benefits. I'm in favor of it.

Great position! Letís also refuse coverage to people with a BMI over 30. Agree?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: JNM on August 14, 2021, 10:01:07 pm
Great position! Letís also refuse coverage to people with a BMI over 30. Agree?

I pay a surcharge for that, because it isnít isnít hard to figure out that my costs will be, on average, 10% higher.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: VanIslander on August 15, 2021, 01:03:52 am
If you are the fatality, then a 0.000000001% death rate is too much.

I have talked to someone who lost two relatives to COVID19.

You and I are willing to put her, she, they at risk....

(But let's not pretend the present coronovirus isn't ten to twenty times as deadly as influenza.)
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 15, 2021, 02:55:33 am
Great position! Letís also refuse coverage to people with a BMI over 30. Agree?
Smokers and the obese already pay higher premiums. If you're in a car accident while drunk, insurance won't cover you.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 15, 2021, 03:15:29 am
Great position! Letís also refuse coverage to people with a BMI over 30. Agree?
Well the BMI analogy is a poor one. It's much easier to take a couple of shots in the arm than work off a substantial amount of kgs. I guess it would really depend on a person's reason for not being vaccinated. There are some people who are prone to anaphylaxis for which refusal would be reasonable. However, even those of us with a socialised medical system are considering restrictions for the unreasonable unvaccinated. Being a fan of Tucker Carlson or Fox News wouldn't count as reasonable ground for objection by the way! ;D
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: VanIslander on August 15, 2021, 07:50:59 am
Well the BMI analogy is a poor one. It's much easier to take a couple of shots in the arm than work off a substantial amount of kgs. I guess it would really depend on a person's reason for not being vaccinated. There are some people who are prone to anaphylaxis for which refusal would be reasonable. However, even those of us with a socialised medical system are considering restrictions for the unreasonable unvaccinated. Being a fan of Tucker Carlson or Fox News wouldn't count as reasonable ground for objection by the way! ;D
So you are saying "no".
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 15, 2021, 08:12:44 am
So you are saying "no".

No, to what exactly?  I didn't see it as a 'yes/no' question but rather one requiring a more detailed response.
It would be a 'NO' to a purely unsocialised, for profit medical health care system though. However, the reality for a lot of us is somewhere in between, a combination of private and public health care. I'm yet to have experienced the need for private health insurance so I find it a little difficult to comprehend the problems that some of you speak about when faced the possibility of being refused health insurance.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: MayorHaggar on August 15, 2021, 03:09:25 pm
The "so" tell for cognitive dissonance and misstating someones opinion.

So in other words, you admit your point is nonsense.

https://www.waygook.org/index.php?topic=105109.60
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 16, 2021, 03:10:03 pm
https://www.waygook.org/index.php?topic=105109.60
Yes, since 2017 I have tried not to do that. Thank you for pointing out that I learned something and stopped it.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 16, 2021, 03:21:26 pm
I was wondering why Martino had latched onto this "'So' tell for cognitive dissonance" thing, which now gets rolled out in about 1/3 of the threads in which he participates. I figured he must have picked up from a YouTuber or podcaster or something, particularly because it really has nothing to do with actual cognitive dissonance ("Cognitive dissonance, coined by Leon Festinger in the 1950s, describes the discomfort people feel when two cognitions, or a cognition and a behavior, contradict each other. I smoke is dissonant with the knowledge that 'Smoking can kill me.' To reduce that dissonance, the smoker must either quitóor justify smoking ['It keeps me thin, and being overweight is a health risk too, you know']. At its core, Festingerís theory is about how people strive to make sense out of contradictory ideas and lead lives that are, at least in their own minds, consistent and meaningful."*)

Turns out Martino has cribbed it from Scott Adams (no real surprise there). Google "So tell for cognitive dissonance" and you'll see. Also unsurprising is that Adams made up his own definition of cognitive dissonance. Less surprising still is Adam's complete obliviousness to the fact that he is a poster child for cognitive dissonance in the traditional sense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW_TwM7cNJ0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW_TwM7cNJ0)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAVMbuETnX0&t=9s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAVMbuETnX0&t=9s)

These interviews are masterclasses in deflection, blaming abstract entities ("the media, "elites", etc), diversion, strawmanning, moving goalposts, etc. All wrapped up in a more-logical-than-thou posture.


*https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/role-cognitive-dissonance-pandemic/614074/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/role-cognitive-dissonance-pandemic/614074/)


Yes I was inspired by Adams, whom I agree with on dome things but not on others. No doubt as you do with Harris and Pakman as you are linking to their shows.

1) What does that have to do with the people on thus board using "So" and then immediately following it up with a misrepresentation of someone's post?
2) Notice you don't actually disagree that it is an example of cognitive dissonance or at the least, bad thinking. You just make the point that I got it from Adams and Adams is bad for some reasons, therefore this "so" thing must not be true.
3) It actually would be cognitive dissonance. The person has two contradictory things in their brain- The point the person said+their unwillingness or inability to agree/admit the truth or their lack of answer. Thus, why they respond with "so."

Do you actually have a point to make on those "so" statements or is your point just about how I got something from Adams and you don't care for him for various reasons?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: MayorHaggar on August 16, 2021, 05:45:43 pm
I'd just like to point out that you don't need to start a dumb question with "so" when you want to misrepresent the other person's argument in order to troll.

You can see this clearly here. Or in just about any Martin post.

You mean that there should be things like mask mandates and lockdowns until the death rate is ZERO?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 16, 2021, 09:30:59 pm

"I'm not so sure that lying is the word I'd use here. I mean, the media has already conditioned everyone to believe that Trump is a liar, so the whole concept of truth has been twisted to fit this very narrow definition, and Trump is basically pronounced guilty before he even has a chance to explain himself. But the more important question, and the one that I don't hear anyone asking, is why people who don't consider themselves Christian insist on using the Gregorian calendar. I mean you've got all these self-declared atheists, agnostics, and so on, proudly broadcasting their indifference to Christianity, and yet when it comes to Donald Trump, they're going to insist that only the Christian calendar can be used to define a day, or month, or year. Like, it's okay for you to reject Christianity, but not okay for Trump to dispense with this one archaic element? And then the whole thing with the city clerk... You've got all these media people and Nancy Pelosi saying that it's forgery. Well, have you considered the etymology of that word? To forge means to make, and what all these hysterical pundits and self-serving politicians don't understand is that in Trump's mind, he made himself born later. We all craft realities for ourselves - anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. Blah blah blah blah blah blah..."


It's like DeMartino is in the room.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 17, 2021, 05:25:28 am
I've never listened to a Joe Rogan podcast nor sought the advice of professional psychiatrist but I've heard of Ekbom's Syndrome so it must have been from an episode of Scooby Doo! :cheesy:

(https://external-preview.redd.it/Zj1D6i2A3OPRa5zB8JWQnBubBp_jsY5-NQ3y5PiWrX8.gif?format=png8&s=11b6d43b8ec124d06a24d3f58388825443f70b06)
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 12:11:30 pm
I'd just like to point out that you don't need to start a dumb question with "so" when you want to misrepresent the other person's argument in order to troll.

You can see this clearly here. Or in just about any Martin post.

Actually I was asking them to clarify their position. They literally said this-

Quote
The COVID death rate I am willing to accept for normal life is 0.

Thus I am not misstating their position when I ask-

Quote
You mean that there should be things like mask mandates and lockdowns until the death rate is ZERO?

How am I misstating or mistepresenting their position? I am asking them to clarify it because their position seems rather extreme.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 12:37:30 pm
Is it not possible that someone's "So" statement could actually be an accurate take on another person's point?
Yes, that's why it's a tell and not a rule. A tell is when something and something else are linked. For example if someone is blinking a lot when you're talking to them about sensitive stuff, that is often a tell for lying. However it can also be a case that a spec of dust just flew in their eye or they simply have had that tic since birth. It's why poker "tells" exist and some are more common than others. They're not firm rules, but they are often true.

Quote
What, in particular, is an example of cognitive dissonance? Using the word "So"? As I said above, there are many cases in which it might not be cognitive dissonance.
Not the use of the word so. The use of the word "So" to start a sentence in a debate, subsequently attached to someone's position. Often as part of a phrase such as "So what you're saying is..." or "So what you really want/mean is..." It is simply called the "So" tell as a way of saying succinctly, not that every case of the word "so" is a sign of cognitive dissonance.

"The 'so' tell for cognitive dissonance"
"So what you're saying is everytime someone uses the word so, they're experiencing cognitive dissonance?"
 :sad:

Quote
If I were 34 years old and went around telling people that I'm actually 29, everyone would say that I lie about my age, including Scott Adams. If Donald Trump were found out to be 5 years older than what he claims, and someone found proof that he'd paid a city clerk to alter his birth certificate, Scott Adams would come out with something like:

"I'm not so sure that lying is the word I'd use here. I mean, the media has already conditioned everyone to believe that Trump is a liar, so the whole concept of truth has been twisted to fit this very narrow definition, and Trump is basically pronounced guilty before he even has a chance to explain himself. But the more important question, and the one that I don't hear anyone asking, is why people who don't consider themselves Christian insist on using the Gregorian calendar. I mean you've got all these self-declared atheists, agnostics, and so on, proudly broadcasting their indifference to Christianity, and yet when it comes to Donald Trump, they're going to insist that only the Christian calendar can be used to define a day, or month, or year. Like, it's okay for you to reject Christianity, but not okay for Trump to dispense with this one archaic element? And then the whole thing with the city clerk... You've got all these media people and Nancy Pelosi saying that it's forgery. Well, have you considered the etymology of that word? To forge means to make, and what all these hysterical pundits and self-serving politicians don't understand is that in Trump's mind, he made himself born later. We all craft realities for ourselves - anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. Blah blah blah blah blah blah..."

Then a bunch of fanboys would be like, "Wow! My mind is blown! Scott Adams EVISCERATES hysterical TDS media with LOGIC and REASON."
Could you go after him without using a made-up hypothetical and instead go after him based on his record? There's plenty there. The man is wrong about a fair number of things.

But he's absolutely right about the "so" tell. If you can't recognize that it is a tell, then I don't know what to say. Just because you don't like Adams, doesn't mean it isn't a tell.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 17, 2021, 12:59:44 pm
. The use of the word "So" to start a sentence in a debate, subsequently attached to someone's position. Often as part of a phrase such as "So what you're saying is..." or "So what you really want/mean is..."

*insert JP/cathy newman interview here*
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 03:16:10 pm
Adams responds with something like, "Well, you have to think about intention... If your intention is to accurately report a precise number, that's one thing, but if you're trying to focus your supporters' attention on the border, then it's a kind of truth. There is a greater truth - a problem at the border - which makes these details irrelevant." (Add another two minutes of desperate rambling.)
Well to add more context he has also credited various politicians on either side of the spectrum for employing this technique. I know he did it for AOC and her border theatrics and claims, so he is at least consistent. His point on this on it as a technique for persuasion, not as rigorous truth and that is why it is used.

The technique is this- Person X makes an exaggerated claim, this causes a media shitstorm. This produces several results
1) People will look into the topic themselves, usually with shared stuff on social media that will show things that are bad. The actual number isn't important so much as a bombardment of pictures or posts they see.
2) The other side will debunk the person's claim by providing the correct data. However, when they do so, they almost always will reflexively disagree and claim that it isn't a problem at all.
3) This in turn reinforces the belief that Person X's claim is "pretty much true" as thanks to reflexive disagreement, the other side now looks ridiculous for denying that there is a problem at all.

===========================================================================
This was used both by Trump and was picked up on and used by his critics against him.

Trump: "Look at the terror in Sweden caused by immigrants"
Critics go nuts. People go on twitter and facebook and see two things: Trump is wrong. They also see various mishmashes of incidents in Sweden.
Trump's critics/MSM: "Trump is lying. Immigration in Sweden isn't a problem at all."
Some people: "Uhh...wtf there clearly is a problem"
This may or may not work for Trump. Some people may be turned off by his lie. Others may be persuaded by things and see it his way.

Trump Critic: "Trump called Neo Nazis fine people
Trump supporters go nuts. People go on twitter and facebook and see two things: Claims that Trump didn't see that. They also see a bunch of clips of stuff or in this case, a deceitfully edited clip of Trump saying that.
Trump Supporters/FOX: "Trump is the least racist person on Earth!"
Some people: "Uhhh wtf there clearly is some racism there!"

This may or may not work for Trump's opponents (in this case it was wildly successful, despite no such thing having taken place, millions of people still believe this, EVEN AFTER SEEING VIDEO THAT DISPROVES IT- furthermore even if they agree that he literally didn't say it, they will either A) Claim that somehow through various loops and connections meant to or B) Will never correct someone who makes the claim)

Now, some final thoughts on this
1) Trump employed this technique far too often and it wore out its welcome and effectiveness. It worked great at the start and on the campaign. It decreased significantly once in office.
2) Trump brought the opposition use of it on himself. You change the rules on your end, the opposition will change the rules on theirs
3) The ultimate point of what Adams is talking about with these is communicating to people this concept and how to identify it and also that this concept can be AND is employed by people and institutions across the political spectrum. Trump was just a great example of it.

=============================================================================================================
If you think only one side falls for this or employs it, that is when things are most dangerous. With many of these things, i.e. "so" tells and the like the three levels of understanding are
1) That the other side/your enemies do it
2) The realization that others on your side do it too
3) The admission that you yourself do it as well.

Once you get there, you can start to try and work against it. It's never perfect because we're human and simply aren't designed to be impartial and objective and completely rational, but at least we can try. But in order to do so we have to recognize that it is within ourselves as well.

Look at some posters on this site, on both sides of the spectrum, some just clearly are constitutionally incapable of anything beyond step 1. They won't even grasp the concept. They'll just read this and conclude "Yup, Marty lies. He always lies. He's on the other side so he lies. I don't do anything he does." and they can never get past that.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 17, 2021, 03:21:16 pm
what im getting from this is that adams is either maga madman or big brain supergenius, which is where i figured the chips would fall anyways, but its still interesting to see them fall nonetheless
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 03:27:49 pm
what im getting from this is that adams is either maga madman or big brain supergenius, which is where i figured the chips would fall anyways, but its still interesting to see them fall nonetheless
I think Adams can be very right at times.....and spectacularly wrong at others. He of course, does fall into some of the same traps that he identifies and can just spew some complete nonsense with other stuff. However some of his stuff is pretty insightful and it was nice that someone actually looked at Trump through the lens of his technique rather than virtually everyone else who yelled about why Trump was right or wrong.

Adams' view of Trump was VERY amoral, which is why it appealed to me and likely appalled others. I generally like analysis that doesn't get too wrapped up in morality but instead goes more into motivation. But that's what happens when you look at how and why someone does something, not whether what they did is good or bad.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Savant on August 17, 2021, 05:24:10 pm
So, I see Marty is employing another misdirect on "cognitive dissonance" by trying to bring everyone around to where he wants the argument to go in his mind which is to his land of make-believe, logical fallacies and strawmen.

So predictable!


Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 06:08:13 pm
So, I see Marty is employing another misdirect on "cognitive dissonance" by trying to bring everyone around to where he wants the argument to go in his mind which is to his land of make-believe, logical fallacies and strawmen.

So predictable!

Genuine question- What do you think your arguments involve? Intellectual rigor, logical consistency, and a complete absence of fallacy?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 06:22:37 pm
This is accurate and certainly one reason why I dislike him.
I think this goes down to one's philosophy of government. Some people think government exists to promote some sort of common morality or to serve as some sort of moral beacon or arbiter. My view is that government ensures to allow people the freedom to explore morality and their own beliefs without interference from others. The government is not there to be my church and the President is not my Pope.

More than that it goes into what you think the nature of government is. In short, is it more 'West Wing' or more 'Yes, Minister'?

Quote
No shit. The arrogance of thinking you have to explain this to people... There's no inherent contradiction in recognizing some simple facts about the man while criticizing his behavior. "You don't understand..."
Well, some people sadly don't get it. Heck, one look at Scott's conservative audience and when he tries to explain such concepts to them when it's the other way around and they just don't get it shows this. Probably 50% of the people on both sides just don't get these things.

Quote
But it's just a misrepresentation - no need to dress it up as anything else.
Disagree. When you look at the most famous example- the Peterson-Newman interview, she was clearly reaching a point of cognitive dissonance, where what he was saying made sense, but she couldn't accept it or agree with it due to certain dogmatic beliefs in her brain (or more cynically, a need to appeal to certain audiences with certain leanings)

Quote
Harris: "Trump wants X."

Adams: "This is one of my tells for cognitive dissonance. How do you know what he wants?"

Harris: "Well, I'm using his own words. It's something that he's repeated many times."

Adams: "You're experiencing cognitive dissonance."
Well, he's got a point- Just because someone says something, doesn't mean that's what they really want or believe or think. If Trump says something completely off the wall and you are left with two choices A) Trump really means that or B) Trump said something off the wall for whatever other reason and you choose A, while perhaps not cognitive dissonance, it does come to its precipice. At the very least you're overriding something in your head that says this is not what it seems in favor of a more extreme interpretation for whatever reason.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 17, 2021, 06:31:51 pm
May I ask, why did you focus more on my phrasing of things with "the 'so' tell for cognitive dissonance" as opposed to taking gogators! to task for blatantly misrepresenting my position, Mr. C for blasting me for misrepresenting things while simultaneously equating seatbelts with COVID restrictions and MayorHaggar blatantly getting things wrong with this post-

"I'd just like to point out that you don't need to start a dumb question with "so" when you want to misrepresent the other person's argument in order to troll.

You can see this clearly here. Or in just about any Martin post."

There were three things there, whose errors were much more severe IMO, yet you chose to focus on me. May I ask why? Wouldn't someone who aspires to reason and objectivity seek to apply fair standards?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Savant on August 17, 2021, 06:33:12 pm
Genuine question- What do you think your arguments involve? Intellectual rigor, logical consistency, and a complete absence of fallacy?

In comparison to you, I think many commentators on this forum can make a rational point. You know your history of BS-making and deflections.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Savant on August 17, 2021, 06:39:55 pm
May I ask, why did you focus more on my phrasing of things with "the 'so' tell for cognitive dissonance" as opposed to taking gogators! to task for blatantly misrepresenting my position, Mr. C for blasting me for misrepresenting things while simultaneously equating seatbelts with COVID restrictions and MayorHaggar blatantly getting things wrong with this post-

"I'd just like to point out that you don't need to start a dumb question with "so" when you want to misrepresent the other person's argument in order to troll.

You can see this clearly here. Or in just about any Martin post."

There were three things there, whose errors were much more severe IMO, yet you chose to focus on me. May I ask why? Wouldn't someone who aspires to reason and objectivity seek to apply fair standards?

There are errors and misstating someone's position in any heated argument and then there's you and building a whole narrative around a clearly erroneous and deflective line of reasoning. Moving the goalposts in any discussion is your modus operandi. You go from discussing soccer to basketball just because both of them apparently use a ball but you can't interchange them in each sport.

What is depressing is the fact that you can initially build a good argument and bring good discussion but at some point along on the discussion something hits and you lose any will to keep the discussion going on what was discussed initially and post by post you bridge across to something completely different. You're the posting equivalent of that Monty Python sketch.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Kyndo on August 17, 2021, 07:41:44 pm
    Back on topic, I think that a mortality rate similar to the influenza mortality rates would be reasonable. People have dealt with seasonal flus for decades without getting too worked up about the 12 to 61 thousand people it kills every year in the US.

   Honestly, what I believe will *probably* happen (hopefully) once things have normalized is that both Covid deaths and Influenza mortalities will end up around 6-30 thousand a year each. The 2 viruses will hopefully compete to infect and kill the same demographic (the very old and immune-compromised) that previously only succumbed to Influenza.


330,000,000/100,000 = 3,300
6,000/3,300 - 30,000/3,300 =  2 - 10 per 100,000

So I guess my answer would be 5-15 per 100,00.
Hopefully that number will result in no net increase in mortality rates as that number will be subtracted from the Influenza mortality rate which, in the USA, is (very) roughly 5-20 per 100,000.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 17, 2021, 11:03:19 pm
You're the posting equivalent of that Monty Python sketch.
Without, usually, the funny.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 18, 2021, 01:14:14 am
May I ask, why did you focus more on my phrasing of things with "the 'so' tell for cognitive dissonance" as opposed to taking gogators! to task for blatantly misrepresenting my position, Mr. C for blasting me for misrepresenting things while simultaneously equating seatbelts with COVID restrictions and MayorHaggar blatantly getting things wrong with this post-

"I'd just like to point out that you don't need to start a dumb question with "so" when you want to misrepresent the other person's argument in order to troll.

You can see this clearly here. Or in just about any Martin post."

There were three things there, whose errors were much more severe IMO, yet you chose to focus on me. May I ask why? Wouldn't someone who aspires to reason and objectivity seek to apply fair standards?
I didn't blatantly misrepresent your position.  That's your SOP, not mine.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 18, 2021, 05:17:52 am
I didn't blatantly misrepresent your position.  That's your SOP, not mine.


In Marti's defence you need to understand that, as a student of his hypnotist & comic strip writer, Scott Adams, when he claims you have misrepresented him it is not so much  he is claiming a misstatement of facts or truths but rather that your are in conflict with his 'emotional truths'.  To think otherwise might put one in a state of cognitive dissonance.   :rolleyes:


Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 18, 2021, 12:40:38 pm
In comparison to you, I think many commentators on this forum can make a rational point. You know your history of BS-making and deflections.
Question- Do you think that you, gogators!, Adel and MayorHaggar are at the top of people's "Rational Point Making and Well-Thought Out Opinion" list?You think anyone on this site is looking at you four as any sort of paragons of intellectual debate and discussion?

I will say at least your posts are indicative of someone who graduated university (and Adel's). MayorHaggar it's just obvious that never in his life has anyone considered him the smartest person at the table or worthy of taking serious advice from and this shows.

But I think you might want to focus some of that attention in their direction as well, because they don't stack up great either.

Anyways, what all this has to do with the poll question I asked is beyond me, but we're here now not because I went off on a tangent, but because gogators! and Mayor Haggar did.

Remember that.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: JNM on August 18, 2021, 12:51:43 pm
It takes (at least) two to tango.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 18, 2021, 01:06:55 pm
It takes (at least) two to tango.
Eh true. I mean, me personally, I love a good sidebar and this has certainly delivered a good couple of pages of stuff to yik and yak about. All I ask is to embrace the sidebar, not claim that only one person sidebars while sidebarring.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 18, 2021, 01:11:21 pm
Eh true. I mean, me personally, I love a good sidebar and this has certainly delivered a good couple of pages of stuff to yik and yak about. All I ask is to embrace the sidebar, not claim that only one person sidebars while sidebarring.

I take it you'd didn't appreciate my defence Marti? Just trying to help you out!
One might suggest though that choosing your inspiration for 'Rational Point Making and Well-Thought Out Opinion' from a hypnotist might not be the best starting point in an effort to gain credibility.  Just sayin.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Liechtenstein on August 18, 2021, 01:20:44 pm
I say let's get back to normal. I have said from the beginning that they should have just let this thing burn itself around the world killing whomever it would. had that happened my guess is it would have burned itself out well before now. This is what viruses and plagues do.

In the beginning it was killing old and sick people. It may have killed me had I caught it. Who cares. I am not important and neither are you. The world will spin just fine without either of us, or anyone else alive for that matter.

Greed, selfishness and hubris are keeping this virus alive and mutating.

Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Savant on August 18, 2021, 01:46:26 pm
It takes (at least) two to tango.

Marty self-tangos.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 18, 2021, 01:47:10 pm
I take it you'd didn't appreciate my defence Marti? Just trying to help you out!
One might suggest though that choosing your inspiration for 'Rational Point Making and Well-Thought Out Opinion' from a hypnotist might not be the best starting point in an effort to gain credibility.  Just sayin.
Where did I say he was my inspiration? I said I disagreed with him on many things, but this was a good point he made.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 18, 2021, 01:47:49 pm
Marty self-tangos.
The fact that you don't think you yourself do the same things shows that you are trapped in Stage 1: It's everyone else, but me.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Savant on August 18, 2021, 01:54:46 pm
Question- Do you think that you, gogators!, Adel and MayorHaggar are at the top of people's "Rational Point Making and Well-Thought Out Opinion" list?You think anyone on this site is looking at you four as any sort of paragons of intellectual debate and discussion?

I will say at least your posts are indicative of someone who graduated university (and Adel's). MayorHaggar it's just obvious that never in his life has anyone considered him the smartest person at the table or worthy of taking serious advice from and this shows.

But I think you might want to focus some of that attention in their direction as well, because they don't stack up great either.

Anyways, what all this has to do with the poll question I asked is beyond me, but we're here now not because I went off on a tangent, but because gogators! and Mayor Haggar did.

Remember that.

I don't think anyone on this site is looking much for an exhaustive "intellectual debate and discussion". If you think this is it then you've got to be disappointed through all those years of posting.

Why belittle someone for not being university educated? Plenty of smart people out there without a college education.

There is a common dominator in why most of these  "intellectual debate and discussion" peter out. Maybe, you can figure it out.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 18, 2021, 01:58:36 pm
Where did I say he was my inspiration? I said I disagreed with him on many things, but this was a good point he made.

Yes I was inspired by Adams, whom I agree with on dome things but not on others. No doubt as you do with Harris and Pakman as you are linking to their shows.

Was that another one of those emotional truths "on the dome things" rather what you actually wrote? 
Did you mean his crystal ball by the dome things? It was an interesting choice of terms when attempting to intellectualise in the manner that you claim to.   :laugh:
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 18, 2021, 02:01:30 pm
Was that another one of those emotional truths rather what you actually wrote?
I was inspired by him for the "so" tell, not for "rational point-making and well-thought out opinion"

Again, mischaracterization .
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 18, 2021, 02:04:14 pm
Why belittle someone for not being university educated? Plenty of smart people out there without a college education.
I didn't belittle anyone for not being university educated. Since we're all NETs, we presumably all have university educations. However there are some where it looks like they got into uni more due to the fact that there's a bunch out there and sooner or later, they'll take anyone vs. actually being able to understand things at that level or really bothered to understand some of the principles that a college education stresses.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 18, 2021, 02:09:58 pm
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/CarefulEuphoricBrownbutterfly-max-1mb.gif)


I was inspired by him for the "so" tell, not for "rational point-making and well-thought out opinion"

Again, mischaracterization .
Ah, another emotional truth then rather than what you actually wrote.  ;D
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 18, 2021, 02:18:12 pm
Letís ax the personal attacks and instead strive for edifying useful discussion of universal appeal.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 18, 2021, 08:37:55 pm
I say let's get back to normal. I have said from the beginning that they should have just let this thing burn itself around the world killing whomever it would. had that happened my guess is it would have burned itself out well before now. This is what viruses and plagues do.

In the beginning it was killing old and sick people. It may have killed me had I caught it. Who cares. I am not important and neither are you. The world will spin just fine without either of us, or anyone else alive for that matter.

Greed, selfishness and hubris are keeping this virus alive and mutating.


I think most people probably put a much higher value on their lives and the lives of others than who cares.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Kyndo on August 19, 2021, 07:18:53 am
I say let's get back to normal. I have said from the beginning that they should have just let this thing burn itself around the world killing whomever it would. had that happened my guess is it would have burned itself out well before now. This is what viruses and plagues do.

In the beginning it was killing old and sick people. It may have killed me had I caught it. Who cares. I am not important and neither are you. The world will spin just fine without either of us, or anyone else alive for that matter.

Greed, selfishness and hubris are keeping this virus alive and mutating.

Not only is this statement morally reprehensible, but it illuminates a very basic ignorance of how pathogens and their hosts coevolve.

Viruses and plagues differ greatly according to their process of infection. The human immune system does not always produce immunity to a disease after a primary infection (ie HepC, AIDS, Malaria, etc). There's never a guarantee that without intervention, a disease will continue to spin through a population, reinfecting and killing those who survived it previously.
The Black death killed one in three of everybody in Europe, and it is still around. If there is ever a resurgence, it will be somewhat okay because we have developed antibiotics that can effectively deal with it (it's a bacteriological disease), not because our immune systems can deal with it any better than it could a thousand years ago.
Smallpox and polio and many other scourges have been eradicated or greatly reduced because of science, not because we let the vulnerable demographics catch the disease and die.

Even if it did, many diseases mutate quickly enough that natural immunity fade rather quickly, as seems to be the case with Influenza and Covid. There's a reason flu booster shots are given annually, and it's not (primarily) because it's a money grab.

Also, letting a virus run rampant through a population makes mutations even more likely to develop. Mutations happen over *viral* generations, which means that they can occur between one transmission to the next. Every new infection carries the same possibility for the occurrence of a new strain as the previous. Without any kind of curve-flattening, new mutations will develop and propogate much faster over time, which would make developing countermeasures against the virus almost impossible.

Finally, with a disease that seems to kill mostly the older demographic, as a society we will never develop an immunity towards it: old people who survive the disease don't pass their immunity down to the next generation. Instead what we would see is a permanent reduction in life expectancy. That's a bad thing.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: waygo0k on August 19, 2021, 08:04:19 am
I say let's get back to normal. I have said from the beginning that they should have just let this thing burn itself around the world killing whomever it would. had that happened my guess is it would have burned itself out well before now. This is what viruses and plagues do.

In the beginning it was killing old and sick people. It may have killed me had I caught it. Who cares. I am not important and neither are you. The world will spin just fine without either of us, or anyone else alive for that matter.

Greed, selfishness and hubris are keeping this virus alive and mutating.



The black death lasted over 100 years. Covid is here to stay for as long as the human population is around. Even with the precautions and technology we have, we're still at 4 million lives lost (likely up to double that due to underreporting)...how many of your family members and friends are you willing to sacrifice to this thing?

Pathogens mutate...that's what they do and have always done. The more hosts they have, the more variants of the virus there will be. And no, there is no way to predict where, when or how the virus will "burn itself out" in your proposed scenario.

Thankfully we have real life examples of countries that let covid run rampant - Brazil, India and Russia. Has the virus "burned itself out" in those countries?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 09:20:52 am
40% of deer tested in 2021 had covid-19 antibodies. In Michigan, 60%. Deer arenít dying or suffering any ill effects. Why is that? At least part of it is theyíre not sedentary and obese. They walk around and eat healthy food.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 19, 2021, 09:26:19 am
40% of deer tested in 2021 had covid-19 antibodies. In Michigan, 60%. Deer arenít dying or suffering any ill effects. Why is that? At least part of it is theyíre not sedentary and obese. They walk around and eat healthy food.

fascinating, but what does that have to do with this thread
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: D.L.Orean on August 19, 2021, 09:32:14 am
fascinating, but what does that have to do with this thread

I have a video of Bill Maher explaining why Americans should be less fat. Maybe that will help you understand better.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 19, 2021, 09:34:49 am
I have a video of Bill Maher explaining why Americans should be less fat. Maybe that will help you understand better.

Pffft!  I have John Stossel on why you shouldn't be sedentary!
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 09:37:58 am
Stosselís in good shape. Rides a bike to work. Age 74. Bill Maherís also in good shape. Age 65. Theyíre not afraid of the coronavirus.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 09:42:25 am
If humans were healthier, thatíd mean less coronavirus.

Good immune system = neutralizing the virus before it has a chance to replicate, mutate and spread.

Catching it would be no big deal. People wouldnít even know theyíve had it.

How unhealthy are humans? VERY unhealthy. Imagine how many less deaths weíd have if people exercised a bit and ate healthier food. How many do that? Not many.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 19, 2021, 09:44:25 am
Stosselís in good shape. Rides a bike to work. Age 74. Bill Maherís also in good shape. Age 65. Theyíre not afraid of the coronavirus.

good for stossel and maher. its my dearest wish to one day possess their great degree of ignorance and suicidal self-confidence


If humans were healthier, thatíd mean less coronavirus.

Good immune system = neutralizing the virus before it has a chance to replicate, mutate and spread.

Catching it would be no big deal. People wouldnít even know theyíve had it.

How unhealthy are humans? VERY unhealthy. Imagine how many less deaths weíd have if people exercised a bit and ate healthier food. How many do that? Not many.

source? (other than a bill maher video)
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 09:50:42 am
Source: my eyes. And all the reading Iíve done. Coupled with life experience.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: 745sticky on August 19, 2021, 10:05:50 am
fair enough,  your opinion has been considered and disregarded
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 19, 2021, 10:46:54 am
Well I can't understand why the WHO hasn't got on board with LI's suggestion. Just think how many lives could've been saved in places like Indonesia and India if people just heeded his message and simply got healthier. Why didn't anyone else come up with this?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 10:53:28 am
Since vaccines are slow to reach many areas, the best thing people can do to protect themselves and others is to be healthy.

Even in the presence of vaccinations, this is true.

The less healthy a person is, the less protective the vaccine benefits.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 10:59:37 am
Humans are stubborn and lazy. Try getting people exercise and eat healthier. They donít want to. Which is why obesity is so high and growing in the world. Hopefully people can change for the better but the likelihood is slim. Itís an uphill battleÖ but worth the try.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 11:16:55 am
Just think how many lives could've been saved in places like Indonesia and India if people just heeded his message and simply got healthier.

True. The healthier a person is, the less likely the virus is to mutate in their body. The healthier a person is, the less likely they are to be a super spreader. We want to neutralize the virus within our bodies ASAP to stop/slow the spread. The longer it stays in oneís body the longer the period of contagion, meaning the more it will be spread across the globe. Being healthier is something tangible we can all do to save lives. The lives of those with weakened immune systems. The obese. The elderly.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 19, 2021, 11:21:00 am
Why not both?

I think some understate the importance of overall health to the COVID issue.
I also think some willfully ignore the benefits of things like vaccines or certain social distancing measures and just throw out "health" because they're doing the equivalent of a kid who doesn't want to take a bath and throws a temper tantrum.


But the fact is that sooner or later the bill is going to come due for all this economic disruption and that might well exceed the lives saved, especially considering the fact that the people whose lives are being saved often only have 5-10 years AT MOST left in them. Is it worth it to severely impact the lives of people 18-45 in order to add a few more years to people who basically are non-productive and in some cases outright invalided? And keep in mind the 18-45 are going to be responsible for the welfare of those most vulnerable, a massively increasing group. At some point you have to consider the question of sustainability and quality of life. That and human beings need to come to grips with the fact that yes, you are going to die.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: D.L.Orean on August 19, 2021, 11:21:46 am
Humans are stubborn and lazy. Try getting people exercise and eat healthier. They donít want to. Which is why obesity is so high and growing in the world. Hopefully people can change for the better but the likelihood is slim. Itís an uphill battleÖ but worth the try.

And you seem to have found a way to spread that message in a manner that motivates people. I'm sure you have changed many lives for the better.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: tylerthegloob on August 19, 2021, 11:24:34 am
i, for one, find LI's posts positively edifying
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 11:30:48 am
If humans become healthier, the pandemic will end sooner. Also less deaths. I think thatís what we all want.

On the other hand, if nothing is said about health, the pandemic will drag on longer and longer, and more people will die. Thatís what we all donít want.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 19, 2021, 12:24:45 pm
Well I can't understand why the WHO hasn't got on board

They have. Hopefully people will listen.
___________________ ___________________ __

Regular physical activity benefits both the body and mind. It can reduce high blood pressure, help manage weight and reduce the risk of heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and various cancers - all conditions that can increase susceptibility to COVID-19.

https://www.who.int/news-room/campaigns/connecting-the-world-to-combat-coronavirus/healthyathome/healthyathome---physical-activity

Smokers have a higher risk of getting coronavirus because they are constantly putting their hands to their lips.

And then, if they get coronavirus, they run a greater risk of getting a severe case because their lung function is impaired.

Quit today to reduce these risks and start living a healthier life.

https://www.who.int/campaigns/connecting-the-world-to-combat-coronavirus/healthyathome/healthyathome---quitting-tobacco

Eating a healthy diet is very important during the COVID-19 pandemic. What we eat and drink can affect our bodyís ability to prevent, fight and recover from infections.

https://www.who.int/campaigns/connecting-the-world-to-combat-coronavirus/healthyathome/healthyathome---healthy-diet
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 19, 2021, 12:44:11 pm
They have. Hopefully people will listen.
___________________ ___________________ __


I'm sure your sure campaign here in Waygookistan will make all the difference in raising awareness to importance of a healthy lifestyle. I must admit that I've been guilty of skipping my regular gym visits this past couple of weeks as I've waited for the full effectiveness of the 2nd jab of my vaccine to kick in before risking  the chance of an infection.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 19, 2021, 07:02:34 pm
40% of deer tested in 2021 had covid-19 antibodies. In Michigan, 60%. Deer arenít dying or suffering any ill effects. Why is that? At least part of it is theyíre not sedentary and obese. They walk around and eat healthy food.
Deer run free, why can't we?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 19, 2021, 07:07:25 pm
Why not both?

I think some understate the importance of overall health to the COVID issue.
I also think some willfully ignore the benefits of things like vaccines or certain social distancing measures and just throw out "health" because they're doing the equivalent of a kid who doesn't want to take a bath and throws a temper tantrum.


But the fact is that sooner or later the bill is going to come due for all this economic disruption and that might well exceed the lives saved, especially considering the fact that the people whose lives are being saved often only have 5-10 years AT MOST left in them. Is it worth it to severely impact the lives of people 18-45 in order to add a few more years to people who basically are non-productive and in some cases outright invalided? And keep in mind the 18-45 are going to be responsible for the welfare of those most vulnerable, a massively increasing group. At some point you have to consider the question of sustainability and quality of life. That and human beings need to come to grips with the fact that yes, you are going to die.
Just because someone isn't pulling an oar in SS. Capitalism doesn't mean they are non-productive. This is reductionist thinking with a Nazi twist.

As for the economy, the rich keep getting richer, thus no reason for Rs to worry.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 19, 2021, 07:08:37 pm
Deer run free, why can't we?

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8DaVdi0P_CIyS2Ju7evREkSZNIzh0J8vEhQ&usqp=CAU)
Ummm, an often neglected therapy for Covid 19!
Why hasn't this taken off in Korea LI?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: JNM on August 20, 2021, 01:04:20 am
40% of deer tested in 2021 had covid-19 antibodies. In Michigan, 60%. Deer arenít dying or suffering any ill effects. Why is that?

Deer are physiologically very different from humans. Not saying that being active and having a good diet are bad things, but bigger factors are likely:

1) Most animals donít typically live beyond childbearing years, so there are no elderly.

2) Viruses impact different species differently.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 20, 2021, 10:37:59 am
I'm not having a go at you or trying to prompt another big argument, but why are you focusing on so specifically on death, as if it's the only factor in decision-making about coronavirus restrictions? You often say, rightly, that many things are more complex than they look on the surface. But you're simplifying this whole situation as a choice about saving the lives of the elderly, when it is actually much more complex. Flights were massively curtailed, for example, because demand plummeted. I described some of the potential consequences of "letting it rip" back on page 3, and deliberately kept it brief, but I could have gone into a lot more detail. You're talking about economic disruption to the lives of younger people, but you don't know that fewer restrictions would prevent that. I know it's tough for, say, a bar or dance studio or gym right now. But widespread COVID outbreaks at those businesses might be equally destructive, in addition to producing more death, hospitalizations and disability. It's NOT a binary choice between "impose the restrictions and save the elderly" and "have a normal life but sacrifice the elderly". The economic disruption caused by unconstrained spread of the virus might well exceed the disruption caused by restrictions.

I'm not saying that would definitely happen, but it's something you have to consider. We don't really know how things would play out, but a combination of epidemiological modeling and historical economic data can tell us quite a bit, and those point to something very different than the binary choice I mentioned above.

Now having said all that, I do want to acknowledge that some COVID rules have been illogical and contradictory, others have been less effective than envisioned and I do have a lot of sympathy for workers and business owners in industries that have been most affected. I also think that prioritizing the least mobile and economically productive segment of society for vaccines was a mistake. Indonesia prioritized young people, and I think that's probably the best path to follow in a future pandemic. https://www.politico.eu/article/the-case-for-vaccinating-the-young-first-coronavirus-covid/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/the-case-for-vaccinating-the-young-first-coronavirus-covid/)
I think that was definitely applicable during the early days of COVID when we were in the "fog of war". However as the data came out and it became clear what the risk was to those under-50 and even under-65, I think it should have forced a reassessment and that an outbreak of COVID amongst that group would be like a salmonella, flu or norovirus outbreak. It could make the headlines but it wouldn't cripple the industry. If there was a flu outbreak at your local bar, it's not going to suffer permanent damage. Cruise ships have outbreaks all the time but people still go.

Now if say, some new variant came out that had disturbing numbers and a later shutdown was advised in response, that would be fine.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Liechtenstein on August 20, 2021, 11:38:28 am
I think most people probably put a much higher value on their lives and the lives of others than who cares.

True, but that's an emotional argument and while still valid, it is not logical. Virtually no one is important. We are all profoundly temporary. How many people alive on this planet right now are truly important? Not you. Not me. That's for sure. If we were truly important we wouldn't be wasting our time here on Waygook would we? We'd be reading our article about how we have found a cure for cancer in the New England Journal of Medicine and accepting the Nobel Prize.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: CO2 on August 20, 2021, 11:48:15 am
Yeah, you're important to your social circle and family, but 99.99% of people could get hit by a truck and it wouldn't make a lick of difference.

Think of 100 years ago. 1921. Who can you name from that year that was 20yo to 60yo?

I'll wait. No one will remember you. That isn't depressing, it's freeing.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 20, 2021, 12:02:49 pm
Just because someone isn't pulling an oar in SS. Capitalism doesn't mean they are non-productive. This is reductionist thinking with a Nazi twist.

As for the economy, the rich keep getting richer, thus no reason for Rs to worry.
I disagree that just because the rich get richer (which is the case almost always) that justifies massive disruption of the economy. The issue isn't whether rich get richer, it's whether middle class and poor people get poorer.

At some point you have to be real about the fact that people die and when they're old they are not the backbone of your workforce and that the future is more important than the past.

Are old people really that selfish that they think their next 5-10 years are more important than the next 20-40 of the young and early adults?

That's some warped Confucian thinking there.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 20, 2021, 02:51:50 pm
I'm sincerely trying to avoid misrepresenting your view here, so this is a genuine question, not a rhetorical one. Do you think that all mitigation efforts are rooted in trying to avoid emotional distress caused by death? That's how you've been framing it, but you haven't really answered why.
Obviously not. As I said, during the early days of COVID these big lockdowns were sensible given the lack of information. They also can be effective during periodic spikes, especially if targeted.

Quote
Again, serious, long-term disruption to medical infrastructure may have more serious knock-on effects to the wider economy than temporary shut-downs or restrictions on certain types of businesses. That may not be true for every location, or at every stage of a pandemic, but the possibility is real. Local epidemics can have significant impacts on economies, even without the kind of mitigation measures that have been applied to COVID.

Quote
Right, but scale this up to severe flu outbreaks at 50% of bars nationwide, coupled with local awareness of the fact that some bar regulars who contracted the flu were hospitalized or died, and then scale it up even more, so that it's a well-documented international phenomenon, and stretch it out over a long period of time. The bar industry is still going to suffer.

Yes, but those certainly aren't of a scale similar to that of a prolonged lockdown that impacts all sorts of business sectors and in particular, affects small businesses disproportionately. It's one thing if a single sector or related sectors take a hit, it's another if it affects virtually the entire country. Now again, during the early days that was likely a sensible risk, but as information became available, particularly when it came to who is most vulnerable, it started to make less sense.

Either way, lockdown or no, you are going to be dealing with losses. The question is how disruptive and to what extent are those losses compared to each other. If the losses from lockdown substantially exceed the losses that would have taken place with more limited measures, then you have to consider whether it is worth it. In particular, many of the losses from COVID lockdowns will be more long-term. In the case of say Korea, the high-rate of single-business ownership, particularly the sheer number of restaurants, bars and other small business establishments and the impact that will have on their owners, really makes this a situation of concern. It's one thing if large corporations suffer a 20% reduction and this is matched with some deduction in pay, because they have reserves and will be afforded bailouts and their employees will still be gainfully employed vs. such reductions, which often will be more severe, and will result in a total collapse of one's business and income, and the follow-on effects related to housing and purchasing.

Quote
That is some very emotional prognostication. The current US unemployment rate is 5.6%. In the UK it's 4.7%. In South Korea it's like 3.5%. Annual GDP growth is up in more countries than not, including SK and six of the seven NET countries.
Those are very basic statistics- What about people no longer looking for work? Or people whose business folded and are now working low-wage jobs? And GDP is also only a surface-level look at things. You have to look at what sectors are making gains and how much of that is going into the average worker vs. say, investors and executives.

This is why I went with 20-30/100k as my target for "normal". It's roughly double the flu rate and I think that is manageable for "normal" life.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 20, 2021, 02:59:24 pm
Big government payouts for not working in the US disincentivize looking for work. People pretend they are afraid of coronavirus or that there are few jobs out there because of it when in actuality they want free unemployment money.

Government borrowing is debt that must be paid somewhere down the road.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 20, 2021, 08:44:17 pm
True, but that's an emotional argument and while still valid, it is not logical. Virtually no one is important. We are all profoundly temporary. How many people alive on this planet right now are truly important? Not you. Not me. That's for sure. If we were truly important we wouldn't be wasting our time here on Waygook would we? We'd be reading our article about how we have found a cure for cancer in the New England Journal of Medicine and accepting the Nobel Prize.
Yes, no one is indispensable. But that humility should also apply to deciding who lives and dies, a process you and martini are engaging in.

In my daily life in SK, I'd say the bus and subway drivers were a lot more important than potential Nobel prize winners. Heck, even the retired dudes working as security guards in the places I lived could be quite helpful when they weren't napping.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 20, 2021, 08:51:21 pm
Yeah, you're important to your social circle and family, but 99.99% of people could get hit by a truck and it wouldn't make a lick of difference.

Think of 100 years ago. 1921. Who can you name from that year that was 20yo to 60yo?

I'll wait. No one will remember you. That isn't depressing, it's freeing.
I could name plenty of people--parents (closing in on 20), grandparents, aunts. uncles and their friends who I met while growing up. My friends' parents. Coaches and teachers.

And of course most anyone could name scores of famous and infamous persons in that cohort.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 21, 2021, 12:36:22 am
I'm still trying to figure out why you are using death rate as the yardstick, then, when you know it's more complicated than that.
Because I wanted a poll question for discussion and went with that one with just a bit of thought because I thought it fit the board. Things could be expanded upon.

Quote
But in making those determinations, it's important to look beyond the death rate and consider all of the unintended consequences of preserving "normal life", in addition to considering the unintended consequences of restrictive mitigation measures.
I'd agree with that and good job raising it.

Quote
When they announced the Level 4 restrictions for Seoul, I remember reading that bars were supposed to be closed. Well, every bar around here is open. There is a ban on evening group gatherings but shops, restaurants and cafes are otherwise allowed to operate at full capacity. It's just a rearrangement of chairs, not necessarily an overall reduction in numbers. Cinemas are open. Schools are not fully online. Yes, there are some restrictions but I think some care is needed when talking about what is and isn't a lockdown.

Well that's true that defining "lockdown" vs. restrictions is complicated. I guess for purposes of discussion, measures strict enough to put many businesses at risk.

Those businesses are hurting. There's A LOT of dried up income. It's not just a little belt tightening for many of them.

The degree to which restaurants rely on parties of to group dinners is massive. Think about how many hwesiks have not happened? How many tables for 2 and not 4? How much business from 10pm to 4AM? Kareoke bars, clubs, bars, all kinds of places. How many cab rides? School buses not running. Gyms. Entertainment venues.   Convenience stores. How much debt is being accumulated? There are so many sectors that are connected and there is a real danger of a cascade. All those chickens are going to come home to roost some day.

Quote
While the country's marquee players have fared well, the service and hospitality sectors, which were struggling even before COVID, have been hit particularly hard.

A study released this week by the Korea Economic Research Institute found that sales by independent merchants were down 78.5% in the first half of the year from the same period in 2020, with 58% of respondents attributing the decline to COVID.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/South-Korea-s-COVID-surge-hammers-small-businesses-again

That's a catastrophe affecting millions across the country. It is NOT sustainable.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 21, 2021, 12:48:46 am
"All those chicken are going to come home to roost some day."

Says Chicken Little.

"South Korea's exports jumped 39.7 percent on-year in June to extend their gains to an eighth consecutive month on the back of a recovery in global business activities. In the first six months of 2021, exports advanced 26.1 percent to reach $303.2 billion, setting a new record for any first-half period."
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 21, 2021, 12:52:33 am
"All those chicken are going to come home to roost some day."

Says Chicken Little.

"South Korea's exports jumped 39.7 percent on-year in June to extend their gains to an eighth consecutive month on the back of a recovery in global business activities. In the first six months of 2021, exports advanced 26.1 percent to reach $303.2 billion, setting a new record for any first-half period."
Are those small businesses, restaurants, taxis, convenience stores, etc. all linked to the export business?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 21, 2021, 02:02:38 am
Are those small businesses, restaurants, taxis, convenience stores, etc. all linked to the export business?
Indirectly, yes.

What percentage of those workers are you willing to let die chasing their daily won?

A better alternative is to have the government financially support such businesses that can show they are struggling. It seems like a win-win, except of course for the funeral homes.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 21, 2021, 08:27:47 am
"South Korea's exports jumped

Korea and Japan had been boycotting each other for a while. Nice to see that die down. Globalism and free trade - intercourse between nearby countries - boosts the overall standard of living.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 21, 2021, 08:36:30 am
Indirectly, yes.

What percentage of those workers are you willing to let die chasing their daily won?

A better alternative is to have the government financially support such businesses that can show they are struggling. It seems like a win-win, except of course for the funeral homes.
I already answered number of deaths I'd take for normality- Double those of the flu.

Given corona's death rate amongst the active working population, the numbers of workers saved would likely be around that of the number saved by lowering the speed limit by 10 mph. Or maybe less.

The connections between a local restaurant and the demand for Korean export goods is virtually nonexistant. Can you please explain how these restaurants and pubs are driving Korea's export growth?

How exactly is the government supposed to provide a previous level of income for millions of these stores without accumulating massive debt or cutting other services? Where is this tax revenue coming from? How is that sustainable?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 21, 2021, 09:04:29 am
USA reduced coronavirus restrictions, resulting in an improved economy, resulting in an increased importation of Korean goods. This helps the Korean economy. Similar situation for China, which is why Korea is exporting more to them, too.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: JNM on August 21, 2021, 07:21:47 pm
A big problem with of our first world lifestyle is that so much of our economy is based on non-essentials.

Back in 2008, I had had a bit of a revelation that if everybody in the USA (300 million at the time) purchased 1 fewer CD a year (~$15) that would be a 4.5 billion USD reduction in direct economic activity and who knows how much indirect economic activity (the spending of those who get a piece that price tag, from the artist to the record store employee).

Our luxury items are somebody else's lunch.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: VanIslander on August 21, 2021, 10:31:03 pm
I was impressed by Korea's initial quick and strong reaction to the coronovirus in early 2020 (compared to England and America where their leaders poo-poo'd doing anything initially).

But then Korea introduced a new 4-level system where the 4th level was weaker then the measures taken at the beginning of the outbreak!

That said, *sigh* ... COVID19, like the flu, might be here to stay, adapting each year, the booster shots being equivalent to the seasonal flu shots; good for Pfizer and other pharmaceutical companies.

The new normal. Masks and social distancing? How about yearly injections?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 22, 2021, 01:58:36 am
I already answered number of deaths I'd take for normality- Double those of the flu.

Given corona's death rate amongst the active working population, the numbers of workers saved would likely be around that of the number saved by lowering the speed limit by 10 mph. Or maybe less.

The connections between a local restaurant and the demand for Korean export goods is virtually nonexistant. Can you please explain how these restaurants and pubs are driving Korea's export growth?

How exactly is the government supposed to provide a previous level of income for millions of these stores without accumulating massive debt or cutting other services? Where is this tax revenue coming from? How is that sustainable?
You've got it backwards. The export growth feeds the domestic economy.

"would likely be around" is a tell that you don't have proof for your assertions.

As for government funding:
"South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$7.06 billion in January. The Bank of Korea announced on March 9 that South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$7.06 billion in January this year whereas the surplus stood at US$0.58 billion in January 2020."

I think that would keep a lot of small businesses afloat.

Restaurants might also think about introducing the custom of tipping:
 
"A diner left a $10,000 tip for staff at a Florida restaurant on Tuesday.

"He said he appreciated what they've been through," the owner of Wahoo Seafood told Newsweek.

Restaurant staff have faced COVID outbreaks, maskless patrons, and longer hours during the pandemic."

I have a question for you. What's your plan for all the orphans you would create?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 22, 2021, 02:01:15 am
USA reduced coronavirus restrictions, resulting in an improved economy, resulting in an increased importation of Korean goods. This helps the Korean economy. Similar situation for China, which is why Korea is exporting more to them, too.
Government stimulus helped the US economy more than lifting restrictions.

As for China, the response to any Covid-19 outbreak is to introduce and enforce strict restrictions.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 02:18:34 am
Government stimulus will boost an economy temporarily. But the national debt will grow. Trumpís tax cuts for the wealthy boosted the economy while he was in office, but added trillions to deficits. Bidenís massive spending gives a short term boost, too. Itís like buying stuff on a credit card.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 22, 2021, 04:47:07 am
Government stimulus will boost an economy temporarily. But the national debt will grow. Trumpís tax cuts for the wealthy boosted the economy while he was in office, but added trillions to deficits. Bidenís massive spending gives a short term boost, too. Itís like buying stuff on a credit card.
No it's not. You don't understand government spending.  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-04/federal-deficits-don-t-work-like-credit-cards

trump's tax cuts didn't give the economy much of a boost because the rich stashed the cash and the corporations bought back stock instead of spending the money on expansion, employees and R&D.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 22, 2021, 04:57:22 am
Government stimulus will boost an economy temporarily. But the national debt will grow. Trumpís tax cuts for the wealthy boosted the economy while he was in office, but added trillions to deficits. Bidenís massive spending gives a short term boost, too. Itís like buying stuff on a credit card.

Perhaps you could look up John Maynard Keynes and read his "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" then put some hours into coursework on concepts like 'aggregate demand' and the 'multiplier effect' before providing us with any advice on this one.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 05:17:50 am
Are you claiming ballooning national debt isn't bad? It is. Everything's a tradeoff. It's about choosing between options that both have pros and cons. The poster above me proclaimed me wrong, posting an opinion piece as evidence. Looks like a similar situation here.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 22, 2021, 05:28:57 am
The poster above me proclaimed me wrong, posting an opinion piece as evidence. Looks like a similar situation here.
Will a least he provided some evidence to support his opinion unlike yourself but please don't think of this as a cue for another Stossel or Maher video.  :sad:
Nonetheless, the potential pitfalls of overstimulating an economy that has a fiat currency doesn't concern me so much, as a property owner and collector of rent.  Its also kind of handy for my investment portfolio too.
I'd be interested in why it concerns you so much though. But please no more of those god awful videos.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 05:51:03 am
Debt's bad for the future.

I'm being roasted for using the credit card analogy, but here's Obama saying the same thing: [3:42]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmjkEM3AJ1Q
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 22, 2021, 05:53:08 am
(https://c.tenor.com/U2RIAQ-tzwQAAAAM/jesus-christ-mr-slave.gif)

What aspect of your future are you particularly concerned about?
You shouldn't need to consult with Stossel on that one should you?
I'd appreciate some independent thought as, I'm sure, others would.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 06:00:29 am
Believe it or not I care about others who are not me. It's not right to get benefits that others will have to pay for.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 22, 2021, 06:02:20 am
Believe it or not I care about others who are not me. It's not right to get benefits that others will have to pay for.
Ok, what aspect of other peoples' future are you particularly concerned about? I'd appreciate some independent thought as, I'm sure, others would. In fact, I reckon even Stossel would appreciate some independent thought from you for a change.
Does this concern for public benefits extend to funding for government funded education and a police force. Or do you believe those services should only be for people who can afford to pay for them? Does your 'care' extend to those with an inability to pay for it? It would be odd given your current employment circumstances wouldn't it?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 06:53:15 am
Balanced budgets are good. They can be achieved by reducing spending or increasing taxes. Spending money not there and letting someone else in the future deal with the debt is irresponsible and immoral. It's kicking the can down the road.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 07:22:27 am
source? (other than a bill maher video)

"One consistent theme weíre seeing with virtually every patient thatís hospitalized, virtually every patient that has died in the hospital, is obesity,Ē Midland Memorial Hospital CEO Russell Meyers said. ďPatients who are overweight are at a much higher risk of hospitalization and death from this disease.Ē

https://www.yourbasin.com/news/mmh-obesity-playing-a-role-in-covid-19-complications-deaths/

When asked for an explanation for why weight matters in the fight against coronavirus, Chief Medical Officer Dr. Larry Wilson said there is something called an H2 receptor in the body that the virus binds to. He explained people with obesity tend to have a higher number of these receptors, which allows more of the virus to attack the body. Additionally, the virus puts extreme stress on the respiratory system.

ďJust by virtue of being overweight, breathing is not as good as that in people who are not overweight,Ē Wilson said.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 22, 2021, 09:32:47 am
Again, NOTHING is preventing anyone from going to H&M in Myeongdong. The streets look empty because fewer people want to go out.
Well, other than 14 day quarantines restricting international travel. But aside from that minor detail...

You know Myeongdong's business is driven by international tourism, right? Then you add in pressure from domestic employers where if an employee gets infected in some sort of public place, they will get blamed and well...

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Again, I'm not denying that some businesses have been badly and unfairly impacted by the coronavirus, and that government restrictions have played a major or minor role in this. But I'm also pretty sure that a lot of economic strife that would have occurred regardless is going to get wrapped up into the consequences of the pandemic.

Your story was anecdote. The data shows that small businesses have been devastated and the rate of business failure is higher than pre-pandemic.

When businesses see sales dip 75% with the imposition of social distancing measures, yes, it's because of those government measures. These restaurants can see their profits increase and decrease as social distancing measures become more or less strict.

Face it: It's because of these rules that small businesses are getting devastated. This is going to have severe long-term impacts.

There's no warm, fuzzy, magic, sensible solution where everyone does fine like in movies and TV. You pull at one thread, it unravels a whole bunch of others. In another country, these measures might not have been as bad, but in one like Korea where there is so much late-night, restaurant, and bar/kareoke-centered social activity, with most of those places being individually owned, not corporate, it is not good.

This is why you can't just "listen to the scientists" because they aren't thinking about the situation as a whole. At least go with public health people who understand economic impacts in relation to health outcomes.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 22, 2021, 09:47:26 am
You've got it backwards. The export growth feeds the domestic economy.
If this is true, why hasn't the export growth translated into sales increases, rather than a 75% drop in sales?

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"would likely be around" is a tell that you don't have proof for your assertions.
I didn't want to sit and do the math. But fine, I'll take the time and do it now. The problem is that there isn't any data on how many workers died. There are deaths by age, but the question is, are those who died in "working age" in fact, all workers? Or is there the chance that many of them could have had health problems that made them less likely to be employed (or under-employed). Regardless a 5mph change in speed limit is linked to about a 4-7% increase in fatalities.

Also, the death rate for Coronavirus in people under fifty is incredibly small.

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"South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$7.06 billion in January. The Bank of Korea announced on March 9 that South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$7.06 billion in January this year whereas the surplus stood at US$0.58 billion in January 2020."

I think that would keep a lot of small businesses afloat.
Uhm, can you do math? Or are you too stupid to even do a basic equation?

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I have a question for you. What's your plan for all the orphans you would create?
What orhpans? The death rate is overwhelmingly confined to the elderly. Do you not know the death rate for people under 50 when it comes to Corona?

We create orphans by people carrying their phones into their cars and not mandating that they be tethered to the car and forced to turn off like some sort of breathalyzer car starter. We create orphans with a 70mph speed limit. We create orphans by not forcibly regulating calorie and sugar consumption. We create orphans with legal alcohol.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 22, 2021, 09:53:27 am
"South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$7.06 billion in January. The Bank of Korea announced on March 9 that South Korea posted a current account surplus of US$7.06 billion in January this year whereas the surplus stood at US$0.58 billion in January 2020."

I think that would keep a lot of small businesses afloat.

I'd just like to post this again, to show everyone gogators! brain works and how deficient it is. Dude thought this was a great point. He also didn't bother to do the math before posting.

And these are the people who think we should have lockdowns and the economic impacts won't be a problem. Ones who can't even do basic math.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 05:42:26 pm
Restaurants might also think about introducing the custom of tipping:

Please, no!

That's one of the worst things of the USA.

And one of the best things about Korea.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 22, 2021, 07:13:55 pm
Believe it or not I care about others who are not me. It's not right to get benefits that others will have to pay for.
Who pays your salary?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 22, 2021, 07:17:37 pm
The Korean government. Also, I pay taxes to the government. But what does that have to do with wanting balanced budgets? People in the future should not get a bill for benefits being given now.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 22, 2021, 07:38:51 pm
If this is true, why hasn't the export growth translated into sales increases, rather than a 75% drop in sales?
I didn't want to sit and do the math. But fine, I'll take the time and do it now. The problem is that there isn't any data on how many workers died. There are deaths by age, but the question is, are those who died in "working age" in fact, all workers? Or is there the chance that many of them could have had health problems that made them less likely to be employed (or under-employed). Regardless a 5mph change in speed limit is linked to about a 4-7% increase in fatalities.

Also, the death rate for Coronavirus in people under fifty is incredibly small.
Uhm, can you do math? Or are you too stupid to even do a basic equation?
What orhpans? The death rate is overwhelmingly confined to the elderly. Do you not know the death rate for people under 50 when it comes to Corona?

We create orphans by people carrying their phones into their cars and not mandating that they be tethered to the car and forced to turn off like some sort of breathalyzer car starter. We create orphans with a 70mph speed limit. We create orphans by not forcibly regulating calorie and sugar consumption. We create orphans with legal alcohol.
Hospitalizations and death rates for younger Covid-19 patients continue to rise. Nevertheless, your willingness to throw the old and the fat to the wolves for money
I'd just like to post this again, to show everyone gogators! brain works and how deficient it is. Dude thought this was a great point. He also didn't bother to do the math before posting.

And these are the people who think we should have lockdowns and the economic impacts won't be a problem. Ones who can't even do basic math.
Hospitalizations and deaths of under 50 covid-19 patients are increasing.

It appears that you're arguing for increased regulation in some areas but none for Covid-19. That's a strange contradiction.  And your willingness to throw the old and fat to the wolves for economic reasons is something most people naturally shun. But it's easy to be judge, jury and executioner on the internet.

How MANY people would die under your plan? Not a presumed percentage but a hard number--can you provide that?

Seven billion US is nothing to sneeze at. It certainly shows that your assertions concerning potential government stimulus are wild overstatements.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 22, 2021, 07:41:53 pm
The Korean government. Also, I pay taxes to the government. But what does that have to do with wanting balanced budgets? People in the future should not get a bill for benefits being given now.
So others are paying for your livelihood?

Government spending is insuring that there is both a present and a future.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 23, 2021, 02:52:41 am
Hospitalizations and death rates for younger Covid-19 patients continue to rise. Nevertheless, your willingness to throw the old and the fat to the wolves for money
At some point you have to balance lives saved with economic catastrophe, because long-term economic catastrophe will kill many people as well.

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Hospitalizations and deaths of under 50 covid-19 patients are increasing.
By how much?

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How MANY people would die under your plan? Not a presumed percentage but a hard number--can you provide that?
Are you seriously expecting me to give you a perfectly precise number?

I already stated the death rate I'm willing to accept. If you are too stupid to be able to do the math off of that, then that's your problem, not mine.

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Seven billion US is nothing to sneeze at. It certainly shows that your assertions concerning potential government stimulus are wild overstatements.
Dude, can you do math?

https://www.mss.go.kr/site/eng/02/20202000000002019110610.jsp
There are something like 13 million people employed in micro and small-sized business in Korea. $7 billion would equal about $540 dollars per person. That's not anywhere near enough to handle a 75% decline in business.

Seriously, did you really think this was a good point? Did you actually bother to do the math or did you just go "$7 billion is a big number, this proves my point"?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 23, 2021, 05:02:32 am
Believe it or not I care about others who are not me. It's not right to get benefits that others will have to pay for.

Balanced budgets are good. They can be achieved by reducing spending or increasing taxes. Spending money not there and letting someone else in the future deal with the debt is irresponsible and immoral. It's kicking the can down the road.

You sound a little confused.  :rolleyes:
Is it ok for others to get benefits as long as they are balanced by being paid for by their own taxes? If that's the case why do you think there should be the need for governments at all. Couldn't those same people pay for those services and have them provided by the private sector? Yet you are employed by a public school presumably, by that reasoning you are taking money that others have paid. Are you still concerned about public debt if it's paying your wages? How do you alleviate this dissonance? What would your preacher Stossel make of that?
Don't you see any legitimate redistributive role for government at all? Do you believe possible markets to self regulate without any legal infrastructure to enforce property rights and contractual obligations? 



Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 23, 2021, 05:16:08 am
Iím against ballooning national debt.

Balanced budgets, meaning not running continual deficits year after year, is an admirable goal.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Adel on August 23, 2021, 05:26:21 am
Iím against ballooning national debt.

Balanced budgets, meaning not running continual deficits year after year, is an admirable goal.

You haven't really explained why you believe this to be an admiral goal though. Neither have you reconciled your own contradiction between believing  'it's not right to get benefits that others will have to pay for' while being on a government payroll as they redistribute wealth in the form of public education.
Unless you've changed your mind.  :undecided:
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: L I on August 23, 2021, 06:15:58 am
The whole time I was talking about debt when saying I donít want to get benefits put on credit / a tab that someone else down the road - a future generation - will have to pay for. A balanced budget is better than continual deficit spending year after year after year. 
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: MayorHaggar on August 23, 2021, 06:27:24 am

Seriously, did you really think this was a good point? Did you actually bother to do the math or did you just go "$7 billion is a big number, this proves my point"?

"Aha, the 'asking questions' tell for cognitive dissonance! Dogbert turned me on to this in 1997 at a seminar in Las Vegas! I don't agree with everything he says, sometimes he's wrong about everything, but he's totally right about this one! You've automatically lost the argument!"
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 23, 2021, 10:51:04 am
"Aha, the 'asking questions' tell for cognitive dissonance! Dogbert turned me on to this in 1997 at a seminar in Las Vegas! I don't agree with everything he says, sometimes he's wrong about everything, but he's totally right about this one! You've automatically lost the argument!"
I know you thought this was clever when you wrote it, but it really isn't.

- The "so" tell is pretty well established, which consists of "So" followed by a complete misrepresentation of what the person is saying.
- The reason I am asking gogators! if he did the math and concluded he had made a good point is because I genuinely want to know if he did the math and thought he made a good point.

The reason for this is anyone with a brain (which apparently excludes both you and gogators! because otherwise you would realize how moronic his point was) would look at that $7 billion figure, divide it either between the number of small businesses or the number of small business employees and realize that it is nowhere near enough to keep businesses afloat if they are experiencing a 75% decline in sales.

Question Mayor Haggar- Do you think $7 billion is enough to keep the small businesses of Korea afloat?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: gogators! on August 24, 2021, 12:09:55 am
At some point you have to balance lives saved with economic catastrophe, because long-term economic catastrophe will kill many people as well.
By how much?
Are you seriously expecting me to give you a perfectly precise number?

I already stated the death rate I'm willing to accept. If you are too stupid to be able to do the math off of that, then that's your problem, not mine.
Dude, can you do math?

https://www.mss.go.kr/site/eng/02/20202000000002019110610.jsp
There are something like 13 million people employed in micro and small-sized business in Korea. $7 billion would equal about $540 dollars per person. That's not anywhere near enough to handle a 75% decline in business.

Seriously, did you really think this was a good point? Did you actually bother to do the math or did you just go "$7 billion is a big number, this proves my point"?
What "long-term economic catastrophe"? You're begging the question.

You can't give me a number but you continue to bang on about doing the math.  "something like"--are you just making these numbers up? How about a link or three?

But so far you're OK with killing off anyone over 50 and the obese. Who's next--the mentally handicapped, the physically handicapped, babies with birth defects?

As for government stimulus, not every business would qualify and the government could use more than the surplus if necessary. That number just shows your claim that a stimulus would bankrupt the government is without foundation.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 24, 2021, 03:38:13 am
What "long-term economic catastrophe"? You're begging the question.
You don't think that a 75% decrease in sales over 2-3 years will lead to mass economic disruption and eventual catastrophe for millions? What planet are you on?

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You can't give me a number but you continue to bang on about doing the math.  "something like"--are you just making these numbers up? How about a link or three?
I've given you a number. The fact that you're mathematically illiterate is not my fault. It is a death rate twice that of influenza- 15~30/100k.

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But so far you're OK with killing off anyone over 50 and the obese. Who's next--the mentally handicapped, the physically handicapped, babies with birth defects?
I'm focused on the long-term health and well-being of people under the age of 50. That doesn't mean we don't try and help people over the Age of 50, just we have different priorities. There's a reason children are saved first in a disaster.

Why are you prioritizing the elderly over children?

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As for government stimulus, not every business would qualify and the government could use more than the surplus if necessary. That number just shows your claim that a stimulus would bankrupt the government is without foundation.
Small businesses across the board are seeing a 75% reduction in sales. Yes, some are doing okay. Many more are really hurting. You would need to spend something like 1500 per person, per month just to keep them in survival. And still many would fold. Have you done the math on that? Korea doesn't have that kind of money.

Just because you can't accept that there isn't enough money, doesn't mean it isn't true.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 24, 2021, 07:36:18 am

Small businesses across the board are seeing a 75% reduction in sales.


I'm sure you understand why we need a source for this number.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 24, 2021, 11:27:49 am
For reference:


I'm not posting these to embarrass you. I just want to know if your perspective has changed now that you know you've been using a massively inflated number (about 55-60% higher than what small business actually reported). A lot of your arguments are rooted in the 75% decline in profits being catastrophic (your word, not mine).
Hey, no problem. Good that you did a deeper dive on the numbers. Of course we're all trying to sort through things.

Yes, I was basing thijgs on that figure. 20% is more manageable but still concerning. And I thinj you'd also agree that $7 billion is not a great sum of money over the course of this.

It's also worth noting that this is all pre-Stage IV numbers. I think you might see much bigger impacts then, but then again, it depends on how long it lasts.

Regardless, good catch on the data. It certainly shows things not being as bad, and I think you'd agree that if they were that bad, one would have to consider opening things up to some degree because those #s would be calamitous.
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr C on August 24, 2021, 11:46:06 am
For reference:


I'm not posting these to embarrass you. I just want to know if your perspective has changed now that you know you've been using a massively inflated number (about 55-60% higher than what small business actually reported). A lot of your arguments are rooted in the 75% decline in profits being catastrophic (your word, not mine).

No, no.  300%.  (75/25)X100=300% . 

If someone told you an item was  $25 but they charged $75, would you think that was 55-60% higher?
Title: Re: What COVID death rate are you willing to accept for normal life?
Post by: Mr.DeMartino on August 24, 2021, 12:41:00 pm
Yes, I don't think that the budget surplus is sufficient to make a long-term impact or cover all losses. It could fund some short-term stimulus, but it's not going to save every struggling business.
It doesn't have to save every business, but at enough to try and stem the bleeding.

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That said, the rules have shifted so many times that it might not have much of an impact at all. For example, there was a period late last year when cafes had to convert to take-out only, but that was at Level 3 (if I remember correctly). I think gyms and certain other businesses were forcibly closed at one point, again at a lower level, while now they can operate under certain guidelines. This is anecdotal, of course, but several people have said they don't really notice any difference between Levels 3 and 4 in terms of what they can / can't do. The sparser number of people on the street may be due to self-imposed social distancing.
Look, we all know Korean post-work dining habits and how Koreans hang out under normal conditions. We know the big dinners, we know the groups of 4-8 going out for dinner and drinks, and round 3, and kareoke and up until midnight or later and all that.

We also know that given the degree of activity during the daytime, that people are not so crippled with fear as to cause daytime commerce and such to evaporate. The degree of daytime activity suggests that any decline in activity at night is linked to the laws, not perceptions of risk.

This is before we get to the issue of ballooning household debt that has taken place. It's not a good thing if in order to get through this, people take on enormous amounts of debt. The bill for that is going to come due at some point. You can't have this massive of a disruption to the entire global economy and to the national economies of the respective countries without some severe impacts. Think the Great Recession of 2008 and everything that led to (cough cough Trump cough).