Waygook.org

Symposium => "Open" Discussions => Topic started by: AMDC on June 13, 2019, 03:22:18 pm

Title: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: AMDC on June 13, 2019, 03:22:18 pm
Fervor for cryptocurrency (such as Bitcoin) has died down after record losses in 2018. Even Waygook.org had it's own sect of diehard crypto-investors that have since gone silent. What's on the horizon for cryptocurrency?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 13, 2019, 03:48:12 pm
I wish I had bought some or continued mining back in 2011 but I stopped after a week seeing I only got 0,001 bitcoin per week with my Geforce 650gtx.
Right now, I'm just buying it each month believing it will be 100k plus. Whenever there is political turmoil large investors enter that market, or when countries are in trouble everyone puts their savings in Bitcoin. (Zimbabwe, Venezuela.) Julian Assange has become incredibly wealthy now.

 Similarly, I am betting (this I call gambling) on DGB taking over from BTC once its limitations are reached. Tron is also interesting because Alibaba is behind it, but both are basically a deep pit in which I throw 200 euros a month in.
100 euros on DGB, 100 on Tron.
And to you lot in Korea, what is 100 dollars now really to you? 1 less steak dinner at some silly overpriced Brazilian restaurant with your gf.?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 14, 2019, 08:50:31 am
Similarly, I am betting (this I call gambling) on DGB taking over from BTC once its limitations are reached. Tron is also interesting because Alibaba is behind it, but both are basically a deep pit in which I throw 200 euros a month in.
100 euros on DGB, 100 on Tron.

I like DGB but the chart is unhealthy, it has been going down since last summer. You really are just throwing away 100 euros a month. I think we might get DGB for 50 sats and I might buy some at that price but  I wouldn't put money into something until it shows that it's broken out of a downward pattern. At least you know you're gambling.

History repeats itself, especially in financial markets and the cryptocurrency market will most likely play out very similar to the dot-com bubble where we will see most coins disappear but there will be a few that do very well long term. When the dot-com bubble burst the total market cap  was $6.7 trillion, but at the peak of 2017 the total market cap of crypto was only $750 billion, so we're still quite far from that scenario.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: AMDC on June 14, 2019, 11:44:03 am
History repeats itself, especially in financial markets and the cryptocurrency market will most likely play out very similar to the dot-com bubble where we will see most coins disappear but there will be a few that do very well long term. When the dot-com bubble burst the total market cap  was $6.7 trillion, but at the peak of 2017 the total market cap of crypto was only $750 billion, so we're still quite far from that scenario.

This is what I'm thinking as well. The blind investments yielded some disastrous results, but now we'll see a rise in a few dominant cryptocurrencies and the tech will become deeply integrated into our lives, similar to the rise of Google/Amazon/YouTube after the dot-com burst.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: MayorHaggar on June 14, 2019, 08:34:13 pm
Similarly, I am betting (this I call gambling) on DGB taking over from BTC once its limitations are reached. Tron is also interesting because Alibaba is behind it, but both are basically a deep pit in which I throw 200 euros a month in.
100 euros on DGB, 100 on Tron.
And to you lot in Korea, what is 100 dollars now really to you? 1 less steak dinner at some silly overpriced Brazilian restaurant with your gf.?

Why stop there? Who needs stupid outdated concepts like hard currency anyway?

(https://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/340/537/c01.gif)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 18, 2019, 09:36:16 am
As we approach $10K (in the next few days possibly), the fervor will come back.  You'll start to read about it in the media again. 

Smart people were scooping it up at $3K and have already almost tripled their money after only a few months.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 18, 2019, 11:12:01 am
doubt it'll make much news until/if it reaches its ATH tbh. 10k is still almost 50% down from peak
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 18, 2019, 12:40:22 pm
I made a bit but now im shorting it. I think it'll go down to 6000. :azn:
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 18, 2019, 04:17:23 pm
I made a bit but now im shorting it. I think it'll go down to 6000. :azn:
why do you think that?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 18, 2019, 05:51:24 pm
This recent spike was down to one exchange closing to US customers so they had to sell all their altcoins for BTC and close their positions. As soon as they are back on their US site, they will sell cash out their BTC and go back into those altcoins like Litecoin (which is now cheap) and Ether. I'm half in BTC half in this obscure Zerocoin which they use in Thailand? as currency. Don't follow my trade though, it might have peaked already, this 50% increase was only because they can use it now as payment all over the country via QR code.
Immediately I have to say I lost on the last dump of 20.000 BTC. And there was even a Chinese trader who commited suicide because he had 165 million US on margin because he expected the price to drop. If you connect that story and the recent pumps you can tell that someone saw that price wall and triggered that short. I saw one triggered in realtime at 8900, so I sold at 9100, while it was spiking up uncontrollably to 9300. To me, this sidewards movement are the whales letting the price consolidate, giving the news chance to spread and then dump it on the little man. Buy the rumour, sell the news. You just saw it happening.

(https://i.ibb.co/xgcmwZy/Annotation-2019-06-18-173230.png) (https://ibb.co/rpLbq9g)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 18, 2019, 06:14:09 pm
I made a bit but now im shorting it. I think it'll go down to 6000. :azn:

You're right thinking that it's going to go down, I expect it to test the bottom over the summer. However shorting crypto with more than 5x leverage is far too risky due to the volatility. All it takes is a $1,000 candle to the upside and your account is rekt. You might get lucky and make money but try that 10 times and your account is dead.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 18, 2019, 06:24:47 pm
I'm too small a fish to be granted 5x leverage :)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 18, 2019, 08:49:39 pm
I'm too small a fish to be granted 5x leverage :)

You never heard of Bitmex  :laugh:
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 19, 2019, 01:41:06 am
I just saw an 8 million short wall at 9100 but also lots of buy pressure at 8700 dollars so maybe I'm gonna lose money.  ;D

(https://i.ibb.co/sV16Y9R/Annotation-2019.png) (https://ibb.co/9r4V5Hg)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 19, 2019, 08:25:03 am
If you have a lot of trading experience and you are only playing with a portion of your holdings then I think that's fine.  I think shorting is pretty gutsy though when a big green candle can wipe you out instantly (and we've seen this happen over and over recently).

Selling a large portion of your main holdings in anticipation of a dip is incredibly ballsy...is belo sweating?!   :-[

We seem to be defending $9K pretty strongly even after the Libra announcement (which admittedly looks very polished).  But there is no way I see us testing the bottom again in the coming months.  Dips are being bought up so quickly now and then we continue to float upwards.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 19, 2019, 09:26:41 am
interesting fact (admittedly not mine):
in the past, bitcoin never goes below a previous high once it's broken the second time in a bull market, and it never falls below an atl in a bear market. so... we won't see prices below 9000 again? :p
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 19, 2019, 09:37:06 am
interesting fact (admittedly not mine):
in the past, bitcoin never goes below a previous high once it's broken the second time in a bull market, and it never falls below an atl in a bear market. so... we won't see prices below 9000 again? :p

Now you're speaking my language  :laugh:
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 19, 2019, 10:37:33 am
Selling a large portion of your main holdings in anticipation of a dip is incredibly ballsy...is belo sweating?!   :-[

You should never go full fiat. I have long term BTC but I'm currently in the ETH trade waiting for that to take off. I expect ETH to move up whilst BTC drifts down or goes sideways. ALTS might be bottoming by then so possibly some opportunities there.

We seem to be defending $9K pretty strongly even after the Libra announcement (which admittedly looks very polished).  But there is no way I see us testing the bottom again in the coming months.  Dips are being bought up so quickly now and then we continue to float upwards.

Markets will go where you least expect them to. You usually get 3 or 4 chances at "bottoms", we've already had 2, so I think we have a couple left maybe just one more chance to buy around 4K or lower. Wouldn't be surprised to see a wick down to $2800 if they go down in that area.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 19, 2019, 11:10:35 am
We seem to be defending $9K pretty strongly even after the Libra announcement (which admittedly looks very polished).  But there is no way I see us testing the bottom again in the coming months.  Dips are being bought up so quickly now and then we continue to float upwards.

Markets will go where you least expect them to. You usually get 3 or 4 chances at "bottoms", we've already had 2, so I think we have a couple left maybe just one more chance to buy around 4K or lower. Wouldn't be surprised to see a wick down to $2800 if they go down in that area.

Yeah that's why I was buying in the $3Ks when 90% of people were calling for a further drop to $1K - $2K.  BTC hasn't been very good at providing the "usual chances" that we see in other markets.  Outside of something really horrific happening, I just can't see a 65% pullback.

Long term I suppose it doesn't matter too much but I couldn't deal with the stress and headaches of trading this.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 19, 2019, 11:15:49 am
Mods, could this be merged with the main crypto thread?

https://www.waygook.org/index.php?topic=98252.440
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 19, 2019, 01:26:58 pm
Quote
we won't see prices below 9000 again? :p

mods please ban oglop for making me anxious about my short position!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 19, 2019, 01:37:33 pm
in the past, bitcoin never goes below a previous high once it's broken the second time in a bull market

Sounds like football stats. Be careful using the word "never" in financial markets.

Last year, BTC was never going to break the $5,000 support level.

How about NEO, can you remember the NEO hodlers who refused to sell at $150 and watched their coin lose more than 95% of it's value. It could never go that low...  ;D
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 19, 2019, 01:44:37 pm
Quote
we won't see prices below 9000 again? :p

mods please ban oglop for making me anxious about my short position!
every "dip
 so far since 7400 every dip has been eaten up. it isn't a bear market anymore and it also seems a lot of people are waiting on the sidelines for this bigger dip, which hasn't come. so if it goes up much more, i imagine a lot of people will fomo back in, pushing the price up. with binance banning americans from their markets, i imagine a lot of people will also buy back into bitcoin from alts (will this have a big affect on anything? idk) .

shorting just seems risky right now. better to buy/long the dips than short what you think may be highs. will probably push up to at least 9700~9800 within a week or so, and have a pop at 10k. if i was going to short, it would probably be at around 10k, not 9k. you remember what happened last time we went for 10k, right? :p or 11.6k, for that matter

belo horizonte: that comment was just tongue in cheek tbh
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 19, 2019, 01:55:44 pm
I still don't see the bull. It's taken half a year to reach this point which is essentially a move off the bottom with no reversal pattern.

I see two options, double bottom (we visit 3K again) or head and shoulders reversal pattern, which means November 2018 to now is the left shoulder and over the summer we will form the head and in the fall we see the real bull coming out to play making a quick right shoulder then off to 35K.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 19, 2019, 03:22:39 pm
Mr. Oglop! I shan't have any favourable countenance of thy person and character if you insist so upon placing such a darkened shadow on my constitution, Sir! I beg of thee, most arduously, to forego of thy dark tidings, lest thou has't me wither away in sorrowful pity for my fortunes.  :azn:

Luckily Zcoin is up 2 euros.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 20, 2019, 12:29:02 am
What do you think of FB's Libra coin?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: friendofcletus on June 20, 2019, 07:38:43 am
What do you think of FB's Libra coin?

On the fence about it...

I am in crypto for the long game, and think coins like this will really propel digital assets into real use. Which will be awesome, and hopefully a step away from the FED, ECB, etc.

BUT. Facebook's omnipresence and the amount of personal data they have on everyone...very scary when you throw in a banking system as well.

Congress will stop/stall it. Don't think crypto will have a its day until after the next big financial shake up (maybe later this year???)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 21, 2019, 02:21:00 pm
Looks like they're going to break 10K.

Happy, this is why you don't take short trades. :P

Oh yeah, Libra is a sh!tcoin, some competition for XRP. One to avoid.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 21, 2019, 11:51:35 pm

Happy, this is why you don't take short trades. :P

I know, omg my phone's been buzzing all day with warnings them margin calling my short.  :sad:
Dunno why I sold so early haha.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 22, 2019, 12:08:02 am

Happy, this is why you don't take short trades. :P

I know, omg my phone's been buzzing all day with warnings them margin calling my short.  :sad:
Dunno why I sold so early haha.
was it spot or were(are??) you leveraged?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 22, 2019, 12:23:23 am
leveraged 2x, and I'm praying I can ride this out till the whales start dumping on the price. All the money I made on Zcoin, lost on BTC lol and in hindsight I was just foolish to sell at 8100 and go short lol.

(https://i.ibb.co/2YRqHGW/Annotation-2019-06-21-232709.png) (https://ibb.co/dJXBx8j)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 22, 2019, 08:22:49 am
good luck sir
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 22, 2019, 08:33:51 am
leveraged 2x, and I'm praying I can ride this out till the whales start dumping on the price. All the money I made on Zcoin, lost on BTC lol and in hindsight I was just foolish to sell at 8100 and go short lol.

It's only 2x so you should be okay. It's always volatile at the top (and bottom) of the chart. Once the high has been made, price usually loops back up so you get a U shape (exhaustion move). When you see a bearish engulfing candle (big red candle) forming in this area  that's where you safely take the short.

So if you wanted to short BTC after the 20K move in 2017 the best place to open a short would have been around 17K.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 22, 2019, 08:38:05 am
Wow...₩12,000,000.

This is unreal, honestly.  I'm glued to all of the crypto subreddits every day and I remember not so long ago when the sentiment was "$6K by the end of 2019" and that that was a positive thing.

Fast forward to now and the consensus is a new ATH by December.  I've even seen $50K, $60K being thrown around.  It's like 2017 all over again.

The scary thing is we haven't even seen the media attention this time that we saw last time around that propelled it to $20K. 
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 22, 2019, 08:48:37 am
Wow...₩12,000,000.

This is unreal, honestly.  I'm glued to all of the crypto subreddits every day and I remember not so long ago when the sentiment was "$6K by the end of 2019" and that that was a positive thing.

Fast forward to now and the consensus is a new ATH by December.  I've even seen $50K, $60K being thrown around.  It's like 2017 all over again.

The scary thing is we haven't even seen the media attention this time that we saw last time around that propelled it to $20K. 
well, it's a bit different. alts are absolutely rekt. a lot are even at their ATLs. most are complete shit so it will be good to see a purge. having said that, projects such as VEN (which i always thought was pretty legit) are destroyed too, so i don't know
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 22, 2019, 12:21:55 pm
woke up to find that my shorts were called... ;D
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 22, 2019, 06:55:22 pm
woke up to find that my shorts were called... ;D

Those weren't shorts they were speedos. :P
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 23, 2019, 03:11:01 am
mudderfuggin' speedos... ;D Now those douches start selling off. When's an honest lad gonna catch a break?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 23, 2019, 07:18:05 am
Looks like the BTC move is done. Bring on the regulations FUD and another of summer of discontent for the FOMOheads who bought at 10K!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: raysmith on June 23, 2019, 08:33:26 pm
Earnings per share (based on net profit after tax) growth supports the growth of stock/share prices.   

There is no underlying support for something like bitcoin.  There is only the hope that someone will pay a higher price than you did.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 23, 2019, 10:02:10 pm
Earnings per share (based on net profit after tax) growth supports the growth of stock/share prices.   

There is no underlying support for something like bitcoin.  There is only the hope that someone will pay a higher price than you did.

Many cryptocurrencies allow staking either by owning a certain number of coins in a wallet or by running masternodes which help strengthen the network. You are rewarded depending on the size of your investment, so it's similar to earning interest and definitely works as an incentive to holding those cryptocurrencies

https://coinsutra.com/masternodes/
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: Stephensalz on June 24, 2019, 09:52:22 am
I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on crypto, because I have a few underlying problems with them as an investment.

1.  No underlying worth.  Just intrinsic value.  (This isn't the only thing like this.  This alone doesn't make for a bad investment.)  It's not like banks or car companies during the crash of 2008.  If all these cryptocurrencies went bottoms up, there would be some sad investors, but very little else would change.

2.  They aren't producing anything other than ledgers.

3.   Much like the technology crash of the late 90's and early 2000's, 95% of these coins are going to die.  There's no reason for 400 different coins.  Maybe you will pick the correct one, but all the rest are going to be worthless.

4.  There is almost no moat.  Anybody and everybody can enter into this space.  And there isn't much differentiation  between the coins, though there is some.  So the eventual champion may not have even started yet, and you will lose on all of your investments.  When that is the case, investments become fads, and coins will lose or gain value more quickly for little reason.

5.  Companies dealing with crypto investments were vastly crazily overpriced.  That shows me that the cryptos were probably overpriced by a decent margin as well. 

This is an extremely high risk investment.  Be prepared to lose every cent you put into it.  This also means that it has a high reward.   But just because you watched a documentary or have read reddit articles, doesn't make you have more knowledge than most people.  In fact, you may be getting used by bigger fish. 
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 24, 2019, 11:41:36 am
I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on crypto, because I have a few underlying problems with them as an investment.

1.  No underlying worth.  Just intrinsic value.  (This isn't the only thing like this.  This alone doesn't make for a bad investment.)  It's not like banks or car companies during the crash of 2008.  If all these cryptocurrencies went bottoms up, there would be some sad investors, but very little else would change.

2.  They aren't producing anything other than ledgers.

3.   Much like the technology crash of the late 90's and early 2000's, 95% of these coins are going to die.  There's no reason for 400 different coins.  Maybe you will pick the correct one, but all the rest are going to be worthless.

4.  There is almost no moat.  Anybody and everybody can enter into this space.  And there isn't much differentiation  between the coins, though there is some.  So the eventual champion may not have even started yet, and you will lose on all of your investments.  When that is the case, investments become fads, and coins will lose or gain value more quickly for little reason.

5.  Companies dealing with crypto investments were vastly crazily overpriced.  That shows me that the cryptos were probably overpriced by a decent margin as well. 

This is an extremely high risk investment.  Be prepared to lose every cent you put into it.  This also means that it has a high reward.   But just because you watched a documentary or have read reddit articles, doesn't make you have more knowledge than most people.  In fact, you may be getting used by bigger fish. 

I will answer your points one by one, this is the way I see things in this baby market. I am not a crypto evangelist I just enjoy investing in financial markets..

1. NO UNDERLYING WORTH. What about FIAT currencies? What do they have backing them? Governments can print as much money as they want causing devaluation of currencies. At least with blockchain you have a maximum supply of tokens.

2. THEY AREN'T PRODUCING ANYTHING. It's still early days yet. You'll find areas that adopted were places that were suffering economic collapse. Which makes me think that cryptocurrency was designed as a replacement for money. Mass adoption comes when the world economy tanks.

3. THE MARKET WILL CRASH. That's your opinion. I'm sure many of these bad coins will die but honestly I could say the same about the dollar and all the currencies of the world. It's very possible that they will become worthless at some point.

4. ANYONE CAN BUY CRYPTO. Are no barriers to entry a bad thing? I'd say that's more positive than negative. You could say forex is the same and that's the most liquid market in the world. I doubt there will just be one 'champion' coin. Currently the big three are Bitcoin, Etherium and Litecoin. But there are other coins that look very promising.

5. OVERVALUED. They lost a lot of value since December 2017, but I expect them to become much more valuable in the coming years. Your comparison to the dot-com bubble is very relevant, I see this market growing and there will be a number of very successful coins that are like Amazon, Google, Apple, Netflix etc. I believe we are still several years away from this point. Of course like the dot-coms, a lot of bad coins will die.

Your last comment is very accurate. It is extremely high risk putting money into cryptocurrency. The best advice I can say is buy near the bottom and sell near the top. Do the opposite of what the reddit crypto gurus are saying and never HODL because that's the best way to destroy your money.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: thunderlips on June 24, 2019, 12:00:16 pm
I saw BNB at $6-7 and I thought man I should buy some. I didn't now it is $35.  Ah well..
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: Stephensalz on June 24, 2019, 02:26:56 pm
I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on crypto, because I have a few underlying problems with them as an investment.

1.  No underlying worth.  Just intrinsic value.  (This isn't the only thing like this.  This alone doesn't make for a bad investment.)  It's not like banks or car companies during the crash of 2008.  If all these cryptocurrencies went bottoms up, there would be some sad investors, but very little else would change.

2.  They aren't producing anything other than ledgers.

3.   Much like the technology crash of the late 90's and early 2000's, 95% of these coins are going to die.  There's no reason for 400 different coins.  Maybe you will pick the correct one, but all the rest are going to be worthless.

4.  There is almost no moat.  Anybody and everybody can enter into this space.  And there isn't much differentiation  between the coins, though there is some.  So the eventual champion may not have even started yet, and you will lose on all of your investments.  When that is the case, investments become fads, and coins will lose or gain value more quickly for little reason.

5.  Companies dealing with crypto investments were vastly crazily overpriced.  That shows me that the cryptos were probably overpriced by a decent margin as well. 

This is an extremely high risk investment.  Be prepared to lose every cent you put into it.  This also means that it has a high reward.   But just because you watched a documentary or have read reddit articles, doesn't make you have more knowledge than most people.  In fact, you may be getting used by bigger fish. 

I will answer your points one by one, this is the way I see things in this baby market. I am not a crypto evangelist I just enjoy investing in financial markets..

1. NO UNDERLYING WORTH. What about FIAT currencies? What do they have backing them? Governments can print as much money as they want causing devaluation of currencies. At least with blockchain you have a maximum supply of tokens.

2. THEY AREN'T PRODUCING ANYTHING. It's still early days yet. You'll find areas that adopted were places that were suffering economic collapse. Which makes me think that cryptocurrency was designed as a replacement for money. Mass adoption comes when the world economy tanks.

3. THE MARKET WILL CRASH. That's your opinion. I'm sure many of these bad coins will die but honestly I could say the same about the dollar and all the currencies of the world. It's very possible that they will become worthless at some point.

4. ANYONE CAN BUY CRYPTO. Are no barriers to entry a bad thing? I'd say that's more positive than negative. You could say forex is the same and that's the most liquid market in the world. I doubt there will just be one 'champion' coin. Currently the big three are Bitcoin, Etherium and Litecoin. But there are other coins that look very promising.

5. OVERVALUED. They lost a lot of value since December 2017, but I expect them to become much more valuable in the coming years. Your comparison to the dot-com bubble is very relevant, I see this market growing and there will be a number of very successful coins that are like Amazon, Google, Apple, Netflix etc. I believe we are still several years away from this point. Of course like the dot-coms, a lot of bad coins will die.

Your last comment is very accurate. It is extremely high risk putting money into cryptocurrency. The best advice I can say is buy near the bottom and sell near the top. Do the opposite of what the reddit crypto gurus are saying and never HODL because that's the best way to destroy your money.

1.  You can't compare them to currencies at this point though.  They are only an investment tool as they are not easily able to be used as a currency.  you can't go to a store and pay with bitcoins.  They are more similar to baseball cards.  You can say that will change in the future.  I don't know, and I'm not willing to bet my money on that.  (baseball cards were as good as currency when I was a kid).  You are right that countries did quantitative easing during the recession, but that was partially in response to the gigantic wealth inequality.  A vast amount of wealth has settled into the top .5% of the worlds population.  They don't spend it.  Even if it just sits in their banks, banks have reserve rates.  A lot of these companies have just parked the money offshore.  Or foreign governments such as China hoard the bank notes because of the trade imbalance.  QA was actually trying to regulate the supply of actual cash in many situations.  And  yes, many countries did it, and some of them were just trying to lower the value of their goods, but if you have your money in other investments, the share price should increase with the earning that increase with the inflation. 

2.  Fiat currencies are backed by taxes, so they are taking a share of the overall production of a country. 

2. and 3.  You're betting on crypto as an expectation of world markets and currencies collapsing.  I hope you have enough crypto's to hire a gang of mercenaries to protect your future self from gangs of bandits hellbent on stealing all of your possessions.  (or to put it more simply, if that event occurs, we are going to have a lot worse problems than how many bit coins or other currencies you have).

4.   When I talked about a moat, I'm not talking about from the user end.  That is definitely a positive for the adoption of digital currencies.   What I'm alluding to is that there is nothing to prevent people from creating a currency.  Which is why there are so dang many currencies today.  To make a car you have to have  supply channels, manufacturing centers, workers, expertise  in the field.  To make a digital currency, you need much less.  which is why it's much more easily replaceable on an individual coin basis.  This is the reason there are rarely new entrants to the car market, but there are constantly new entrants to the crypto space.  I might be good for the industry by large, but it's bad for investors to try to pick the winner. 

5.  I mentioned this on the previous crypto thread, when BTC was 18,000 per and I was begging people to sell.  There were companies which were 'getting into the crypto space' and it was causing massive price increases in said companies shares, for no reason.  Basically, a company could say they were going to start investing in cryptocurrencies, and their market value would triple or more.  I think some of that was taken care of with the 80% chop of value, but I see some of the exuberance returning, as evidenced by this thread, among other things.  Don't fall into the trap.  I don't know what the correct value is.  nobody really does, which is why it is so volatile.  NFLX, GOOG, AMZN are valued using traditional valuation methods for securities.  But I can tell you the way people were reacting to price surges in the past strongly suggested it was grossly overvalued. 

And again, I am no crypto expert, but I have a lot of investing experience, and am basing my opinions as that of an investor rather than that of a crypto genius. 
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: pkjh on June 24, 2019, 02:45:54 pm
If you think all currencies will collapse, I'd love to smoke whatever you are smoking. It may happen one day but not within our lifetimes, not for a few hundred years at the minimum. Also, crypto is still pretty much only accessible for residents of the 1st world. Most of the world still lives in, what we would consider, utter-poverty.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: thunderlips on June 24, 2019, 03:19:10 pm
If you think all currencies will collapse, I'd love to smoke whatever you are smoking. It may happen one day but not within our lifetimes, not for a few hundred years at the minimum. Also, crypto is still pretty much only accessible for residents of the 1st world. Most of the world still lives in, what we would consider, utter-poverty.

(http://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Finfographic.statista.com%2Fnormal%2Fchartoftheday_15137_cryptocurrency_ownership_among_consumers_worldwide_n.jpg&f=1)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 24, 2019, 06:16:01 pm
1.  You can't compare them to currencies at this point though.  They are only an investment tool as they are not easily able to be used as a currency.  you can't go to a store and pay with bitcoins. They are more similar to baseball cards.

I can send crypto from my Korean exchange to my UK exchange in about half an hour and withdraw it to my UK bank account. It will cost me $3 and it will be in my UK bank account within a working day. Good luck doing that with your baseball cards.

2.  Fiat currencies are backed by taxes, so they are taking a share of the overall production of a country. 

A huge chunk of which is most likely be going towards debt repayment. You might want to check the latest external debt as a % of GDP to see how dismal the picture looks. Most western countries are way over 100%.

2. and 3.  You're betting on crypto as an expectation of world markets and currencies collapsing.

No Iím not. I just know how to make money from trading it. Itís good to diversify your portfolio but I donít believe cryptos are the ultimate asset.

4.   When I talked about a moat, I'm not talking about from the user end.  That is definitely a positive for the adoption of digital currencies.   What I'm alluding to is that there is nothing to prevent people from creating a currency.  Which is why there are so dang many currencies today. 

There are a lot of stocks too, whatís your point? Maybe your idea of investing is just clicking a button and waiting for profits but Iím much more into technical analysis. I could list at least 10 coins which I think are likely to do very well over the coming years and I know which coins to avoid.

5.  NFLX, GOOG, AMZN are valued using traditional valuation methods for securities. 

All those are totally overvalued. Theyíve had so much leveraged fiat pumped into them itís not even funny. When they start going down, there is literally no support, there is no bottom.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: L I on June 24, 2019, 06:30:00 pm
I could list at least 10 coins which I think are likely to do very well over the coming years and I know which coins to avoid.

What are the coins to buy now and which are the ones to avoid?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 24, 2019, 06:41:56 pm
What are the coins to buy now and which are the ones to avoid?

I wouldn't be buying any coins now. Wait for the BTC correction to see what happens to the ALTS. Still see a lot of downside potential and also the Tether situation hasn't been fixed.

10 coins to avoid that have high market cap: XRP, USDT, XVG, TRON, BCH, BSV, BTG, DOGE, BCD and of course LIBRA.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 24, 2019, 10:37:28 pm
Yeah XRP such a scam, I have 4000 of them and what they basically do is dump billions of them each month.

Furthermore, it's not used for anything other than to fund their fun projects with banking.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 25, 2019, 05:03:25 am
Whether XRP is actually a cryptocurrency is debatable.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@grider123/why-ripple-is-not-a-cryptocurrency
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 26, 2019, 11:32:34 am
Well that's another day of not being able to focus on work.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 26, 2019, 12:14:04 pm
Well that's another day of not being able to focus on work.

Same, I'm watching ETH gathering momentum. 8)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 27, 2019, 05:47:45 am
well damn. what a beautiful red dildo. shorted the absolute top!

hopefully btc will hover around 11-12k and give alts a chance to catch up
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 27, 2019, 07:01:38 am
Friggin' Russians
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: thunderlips on June 27, 2019, 08:02:30 am
For those wanting to get some exposure to bitcoin without using bitcoin directly look into grayscale bitcoin trust gbtc, you can buy it on stockpile.com if youíre American. Iíve just doubled my investment with this recent bull.   **But obviously do your own research before investing in anything. **
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on June 27, 2019, 08:32:47 am
Looks like it's already moving back up.  I'm genuinely stunned.

Just noticed it has hit $14K on Korean exchanges.  Koreans getting involved again!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 27, 2019, 10:40:47 am
Looks like it's already moving back up.  I'm genuinely stunned.

Just noticed it has hit $14K on Korean exchanges.  Koreans getting involved again!


Overextended move off the bottom powered by Tether. The volatility early this morning indicates it's over.

Koreans only seem to buy when the price is high, so once again they will get rekt.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 27, 2019, 11:49:27 pm
Coming home to find my account hemorrhaging money ! :laugh: fuggin' being played again by these whales.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 28, 2019, 05:29:05 pm
a nice buy back happening right now. be great to see above 12k again so soon to really put the confidence back in buyers. it was a pretty crazy, relentless drop (look at the 4 hour chart!) so quite surprised to see such strong buys so soon. another bullish weekend? plssss
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: HappyPlanetAbuser on June 29, 2019, 02:57:04 am
im out made some... ;D

then...
 :shocked:

 :huh:

 >:(
 :cry:
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on June 29, 2019, 08:55:49 am
a nice buy back happening right now. be great to see above 12k again so soon to really put the confidence back in buyers. it was a pretty crazy, relentless drop (look at the 4 hour chart!) so quite surprised to see such strong buys so soon. another bullish weekend? plssss

That massive red candle was similar to what we saw at ATH in 2017 and the cause most likely is big money exiting their positions.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on June 29, 2019, 10:34:12 am
even in 2017 i think i remember there being more bumps up and down along the way.. not straight down :p
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on July 04, 2019, 07:07:38 am
It's gone a bit quiet here after that huge drop then lol.

So we got the 30% pullback that every man and his dog was waiting for.  I bought the dip (got in at around $9,800) with money I had been setting aside for this situation.  I had stopped buying since the beginning of that huge run up so I was really happy to catch that.  I still have some cash in reserve to buy more if we revisit the $9ks or lower.

I don't do any "real" trading because the risk is too high for me but god do I feel sick in hindsight when I see how much BTC I could have added by selling blow off tops like that $14K.  Congrats to Oglop by the way who did that.

Although I don't trade I actively read as much TA as I can.  I find it absolutely fascinating and I love learning about this stuff.

Very happy to see BTC creeping back up  and hope everyone is ok and doing well!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 10, 2019, 10:29:06 am
Poloniex now allows customers in 80 countries, including Korea, to deposit and withdraw fiat:

https://medium.com/circle-trader/poloniex-now-provides-card-and-bank-account-connectivity-for-crypto-trading-2d2cef175639

GOPAX works great for this already, but it's always nice to have other options.  8)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on July 10, 2019, 11:11:01 am
nice one belo horizonte. didn't know about this

market is heating up again. 12800 seemed the last piece of resistance before 14k.is there any meaningful resistance after that...? new ATH by end of summer?   8)
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 10, 2019, 11:24:32 am
nice one belo horizonte. didn't know about this

market is heating up again. 12800 seemed the last piece of resistance before 14k.is there any meaningful resistance after that...? new ATH by end of summer?   8)

It looks like an exhaustion move to me.

Price loops back up in a 'U' and next comes the sell off.

Not sure when it comes, but I can definitely smell crypto blood. Be careful out there.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on July 10, 2019, 12:35:55 pm
tehre will probably be some nasty whipsaw to liquidate some longs/shorts (bitmexrekt is a fun twitter feed). but, meh, this looks like the strongest bitcoin has ever been. overbought on the weekly though, so might see a drop/rsi reset before a significant move up? wouldn't mind a slower move up this time...
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 10, 2019, 02:10:28 pm
I have BTC I bought at 3K and I don't care how high it goes.

But anyone buying at these prices needs their head checked.

You're paying 4x as much as I did for the same thing.  :-[

Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on July 10, 2019, 02:20:45 pm
I have BTC I bought at 3K and I don't care how high it goes.

But anyone buying at these prices needs their head checked.

You're paying 4x as much as I did for the same thing.  :-[



I'm always a bit confused by your posts here.  Didn't you sell most of your BTC at $7K/$8K in anticipation of a dump?  We're now at $13K.  Have you bought back in since then?

Or do you mean buying on + $1000 move days is a very risky move?   Sorry, I can't see what you're getting at here when you say that people are paying 4 times as much for the same thing.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 10, 2019, 02:45:40 pm

I'm always a bit confused by your posts here.  Didn't you sell most of your BTC at $7K/$8K in anticipation of a dump?  We're now at $13K.  Have you bought back in since then?

Or do you mean buying on + $1000 move days is a very risky move?   Sorry, I can't see what you're getting at here when you say that people are paying 4 times as much for the same thing.

Buying at the top and buying on $1000 green days are both risky moves. You can buy pullbacks if you protect yourself with a stop loss, but how many people in crypto do that?

I bought my BTC around $3300. People buying at $13,000 are paying 4x the price that I did, which is ridiculous.

At 7K I moved my BTC into ETH/BTC. So although I hold no actual BTC I have ETH/BTC. Haven't cashed any out yet.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on July 12, 2019, 08:48:16 am
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192

At first I thought this was a parody account but it looks like Donald Trump has actually acknowledged Bitcoin and crypto.

It's not exactly a glowing review  :laugh:

EDIT:  Federal Reserve says Bitcoin is a "speculative store of value, like gold".

Exciting times!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 16, 2019, 06:16:17 am
Possible scenario for BTC.

A push up to around 12,500.

The third touch to the trendline will confirm the downtrend.

Which means cheap BTC this summer.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on July 16, 2019, 08:16:49 am
Yeah you've been talking about a cheap summer for BTC for quite a while; nice call if we see it!

Did you listen to Steven Mnuchin's talk?  He sounds very reasonable when talking about BTC.  It was very anti-illicit activity but speculation is ok.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: L I on July 16, 2019, 08:39:17 am
Yeah you've been talking about a cheap summer for BTC for quite a while

He's been calling for the bottom for a while. (Which hasn't materialized.)

I see BTC testing the bottom over the next few weeks, so I sold most of mine.

With so much price manipulation (wash trading, etc.), no one knows.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 16, 2019, 09:41:30 am
He's been calling for the bottom for a while. (Which hasn't materialized.)

You can never time financial markets, I shouldn't have put a time frame on things, my mistake. A double bottom is still on the table though and if they do that then they could drag it out all summer. Patience is key and protect yourself if you buy the dip.

With so much price manipulation (wash trading, etc.), no one knows.

There are people that know, they are called market makers. For the rest of us, it's all about playing out scenarios by analysing the probablilities. Regarding price manipulation, tether is a big issue in this market and prices are artificially inflated when billons of $ worth of tether is printed out of thin air.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 16, 2019, 10:32:31 am
Did you listen to Steven Mnuchin's talk?  He sounds very reasonable when talking about BTC.  It was very anti-illicit activity but speculation is ok.

It seemed like the speech was written for the non-existent Libra coin and then he mentioned all the illegal activities relating to BTC. I always find these talks amusing since the blockchain is immutable and the IRS has or is developing new tech that can track wallets which means that tax evasion, money laundering and other activities should not be an issue. Anyway the market didn't seem to react to it at all.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on July 19, 2019, 08:56:23 am
lol @ that pump last night. a $1000 15 min candle? really high volume, too. local bottom for now? another push to 11-12k? what's everyone think?

i put in a small yolo x100 long at 9350. 1200% up O.o
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on July 19, 2019, 09:09:49 am
Haha yeah it's mad isn't it?  The amount of money to be made if you're on the right side of a coin toss is ridiculous.

 Fear and Greed index   (https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/)yesterday was "19 - Extreme Fear" and practically everyone on reddit was bracing themselves for $8XXX.  It really is crazy these days.

I've been slowly making my way through the Facebook Libra senate hearing and it's fascinating.  The majority of the senate still associates crypto with drug dealers and other illegal activities but somehow the Libra project is getting it in the neck even worse lol.  Loved hearing the few pro-Bitcoin people talk though.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on July 19, 2019, 05:44:56 pm
The Fear and Greed Index is brilliant. Also really like Bitmexrekt.

I think we'll see one last push up for BTC, possibly as far 12.5K, then comes the pain.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on September 10, 2019, 12:50:05 pm
Just break down out of the triangle and get it over with  :sad:  Getting impatient after this relatively boring summer.

Any predictions for end of year and into 2020?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on September 11, 2019, 04:43:54 pm
The downtrend is more developed now. I could see a $2000 red candle appearing at anytime.

We'll see a bounce maybe around 7.5K but the charts are screaming double bottoms on the big 3.

Might have an end of year rally similar to 2017. I think we'll see 35K BTC in 2020.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on September 11, 2019, 07:22:32 pm
i just want out of this 9800 - 10900 range. i don't care which way it goes!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: thunderlips on September 12, 2019, 08:16:02 am
Binance is going to put holds on Americans accounts starting in a month or so? Anyone being affected?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on September 12, 2019, 08:41:26 am
US customers should move their funds off Binance as soon as possible. Binance.US is opening soon but will not offer the same number of ALT coins. Here are some other exchanges US customers may want to consider.

Safest exchanges for US customers:
Coinbase
Gemini

Best Alt Coin exchanges:
Kucoin
Bittrex
Kraken
Huobi
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: JNM on September 12, 2019, 01:34:55 pm
i just want out of this 9800 - 10900 range. i don't care which way it goes!

Can you explain this?
Do are you simultaneously both long and short?
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: thunderlips on September 12, 2019, 02:33:00 pm
US customers should move their funds off Binance as soon as possible. Binance.US is opening soon but will not offer the same number of ALT coins. Here are some other exchanges US customers may want to consider.

Safest exchanges for US customers:
Coinbase
Gemini

Best Alt Coin exchanges:
Kucoin
Bittrex
Kraken
Huobi



Better to switch over using one currency? Usdt or eth?

Guess Iíll have to start reporting them too. Fuct
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on September 12, 2019, 05:02:20 pm

Better to switch over using one currency? Usdt or eth?

Guess Iíll have to start reporting them too. Fuct

Don't use Tether USDT! Tether and the parent company Bitfinex are in court at the moment and at any point that coin could literally disappear overnight.

Coinbase has USDC and Gemini has GUSD, those are much better options.
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: thunderlips on September 12, 2019, 07:24:03 pm

Better to switch over using one currency? Usdt or eth?

Guess Iíll have to start reporting them too. Fuct

Don't use Tether USDT! Tether and the parent company Bitfinex are in court at the moment and at any point that coin could literally disappear overnight.

Coinbase has USDC and Gemini has GUSD, those are much better options.

Ok thanks
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on September 12, 2019, 07:47:55 pm
honestly if there was a problem with tether, i'm sure it would have been found out by now. but, yes, there are a number of other fiat coins you could use instead, if you're worried

also... binance US. lol? only offering 6 coins to begin with...and no BNB? haha
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: belo horizonte on September 12, 2019, 11:12:52 pm
honestly if there was a problem with tether, i'm sure it would have been found out by now.

They are currently under investigation by the NY Attorney General. If you're happy leaving your money  in that mess then good luck.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/tethers-trouble-with-new-york-attorney-general-will-crypto-cope
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on September 15, 2019, 07:37:39 am
i just want out of this 9800 - 10900 range. i don't care which way it goes!

Can you explain this?
Do are you simultaneously both long and short?

Price goes down...buy some more!  Price goes up...happy days!  It's the true beauty of Bitcoin  :laugh:
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on September 15, 2019, 11:51:42 am
i just want out of this 9800 - 10900 range. i don't care which way it goes!

Can you explain this?
Do are you simultaneously both long and short?
no, it's just boring
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on September 25, 2019, 08:39:24 am
Ok, $8.5K CME gap is finally closed.  Up from here please!!
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: oglop on September 25, 2019, 08:57:51 am
i just want out of this 9800 - 10900 range. i don't care which way it goes!
finally
Title: Re: The State of Cryptocurrency
Post by: alexisalex on February 10, 2020, 08:13:45 am
Congratulations everyone!